1. Opening Doors: The rising proportion of Women and Minority Scientists and Engineers in the United States January 14, 2005 Supported by the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation Richard Freeman Tanwin Chang Hanley Chiang

2. Three Messages 1. Substantial increase in proportions of PhDs for women and underrepresented minorities  something worked 2. “Attributable” largely to increase in BS degrees 3. Some evidence of policy contribution to improved diversity SUPPLY INCREASES BUT ACADEMIC AND RESEARCH CAREER PROBLEMS

3. 1.1 Percentage of S&E Bachelor’s Degrees Earned by Females, 1976-2001 Source: Dept. of Health, Education, and Welfare, Office for Civil Rights; National Center for Education Statistics. Note: Chart refers to bachelor’s degrees earned by U.S. citizens / permanent residents at U.S. institutions.

4. 1.2 Percentage of S&E Doctorates Earned by Females, 1976-2001 Source: Authors’ tabulations from the Survey of Earned Doctorates. Note: Chart refers to doctorates earned by U.S. citizens / permanent residents at U.S. institutions.

5. 1.3 Percentage of S&E Bachelor’s Degrees Earned by Underrepresented Minorities, 1976-2001 Source: Dept. of Health, Education, and Welfare, Office for Civil Rights; National Center for Education Statistics. Note: Chart refers to bachelor’s degrees earned by U.S. citizens / permanent residents at U.S. institutions.

6. 1.4 Percentage of S&E Doctorates Earned by Underrepresented Minorities, 1976-2001 Source: Authors’ tabulations from the Survey of Earned Doctorates. Note: Chart refers to doctorates earned by U.S. citizens / permanent residents at U.S. institutions.

7. 1.6 Percentage of S&E Doctorates Earned by Asian-American U.S. Citizens, 1976-2001 Source: Authors’ tabulations from the Survey of Earned Doctorates. Note: Chart refers to doctorates earned by U.S. citizens / permanent residents at U.S. institutions.

8. 2.1 Ratio of Doctorates to 5-Year Lagged Bachelor’s Degrees in S&E: By Demographic Group Source: Authors’ tabulations from data obtained from the Survey of Earned Doctorates and the U.S. Department of Health, Education, and Welfare.

9. 2.2 Ratio of Doctorates to 5-Year Lagged Bachelor’s Degrees: By Field Source: Authors’ tabulations from data obtained from the Survey of Earned Doctorates and the U.S. Department of Health, Education, and Welfare.

10. 2.3 Decomposition of 1981-2000 Change in F/M and Minority/ Majority Ratios among PhD Recipients (ln units) BA data lagged by 5 years compared to PhD data Min: Underrepresented Minority Change in Female/Male PhDs = 0.74, explained by: Rise in PhDs / BA (Females) 16% Rise in BA Females / BA Males. 70% Fall in PhD/BA (Males) 14% Change in (Min/Non-Min PhDs) = 0.82, explained by: Rise in PhD/ BA (Minorities) 30% Rise in BA Min / BA Non-Min 63% Fall in PhD/BA (Non-Min) 7%

11. 3.1 Percentage of NSF Fellowships Awarded to Women, 1952-2004

12. 3.2 Percentage of NSF Fellowships Awarded to Minorities Excluding MGF Awards, 1976-2004

13. 3.3 Percentage of NSF Fellowships Awarded to Minorities Including MGF Awards, 1976-2004

14. 3.4 Mean GRE Quantitative Scores for Individuals Intending Graduate Study in the Physical Sciences Source: ETS, Sex, Race, Ethnicity, and Performance on the GRE General Test, various years. Note: Racial/ethnic categories only consist of U.S. citizens.

15. 3.5 Mean GRE Quantitative Scores of GRFP and MGF Applicants, 1976-2004: By Selected Demographic Groups

16. 3.6 Estimated Determinants of Getting GRF Award, 1976-2004

17. 3.7 Wide Variation in % Female/Minority Among Universities in Same Discipline, 1996-2000 Example for women: Economics 5 lowest (171 PhDs) 15% 5 highest (155 PhDs) 45% Example for minorities: Chemistry 5 lowest (439 PhDs) 2% 5 highest (303 PhDs)19%

18. Mean Deviation of Percent Minority from “Expected Percent Minority Mean deviation from Minority Fraction Simulation: Random Distribution of minorities. 1000 Runs Number of Simulation Runs Biology Depts. 6.8% Minority Value calculated from data: 0.073

19. Conclusions 1.Women and minorities have made strong gains in representation in the S&E workforce 2.Some evidence for policies and programs, but 3.Most of the gains can be explained by increases in Bachelors’ – potentially normal supply response 4.Economists’ view: If they are in the workforce, want to use them optimally  make career and life compatible: Childbearing issues for women Mentoring for minorities and women Role in team based science