1. University of California, Santa Cruz – August 8, 2011

2.  50% increase in population by 2050  70% increase in food demand by 2050  40% increase in energy demand by 2030 The challenge is not simply meeting increased demand, but doing so sustainably.

5. Slide 5

6. (EPA, 2010)

7. (EIA, 2010)

9.  Emerging policy innovations  Synergies with poverty alleviation  Perhaps better to ask “How?”

10. 1. How much land is available? 2. What are the life-cycle impacts? 3. What is bioenergy precarious role in the climate-energy nexus?

12. 12 1700 1710 1720 1) Abandoned agriculture areas from historical land use data (HYDE, SAGE) 2) Exclude agriculture-to- forest and agriculture-to-urban (MODIS12C1) 3) High estimate of potential yields from ecosystem model (CASA) 4) Regional bioenergy potential on abandoned agriculture lands.

13. 13

14. 14 (Campbell et al., ES&T, 2008)

16.  Algae bioenergy sustainability (Wiley, Campbell, McKuin, WER, 2011)  Wastewater co-benefits  Efficient harvesting with electrocoagulation and electrofloculation (Trent, 2010)

17.  Electrocoagulation / Electroflocculation  Surface charge analysis of algae (Wiley, Campbell, McKuin, WER, 2011)

18.  A global resource… Abandoned Agriculture  Regional opportunities… Mountaintop Mining  No land use… Offshore Algae  Not commercially viable yet  Electrochemical approach is emerging

20. Slide 20

21. ?

22. (Campbell et al., Science, 2009)

23. a) Ethanolb) Bioelectricity (Campbell, Lobell, & Field, Science, 2009) 23

24. (Campbell, Sloan, Snyder, et al., In Prep) Volatility = 15%Volatility = 30%

25. (DOE, 2009)

26.  Converting Brazilian residue to electricity has greater GHG benefits than conversion to ethanol  Residue-based ethanol has small impact on US energy security but electricity would have massive impact on Brazilian energy security (Campbell & Block, ES&T, 2010)

27. (Campbell et al., In Prep)

28. (McKinsey, 2007)

29. (Casillas and Kammen, Science, 2010)

30. (McKuin & Campbell, In Prep)

33. (Pacala and Socolow, Science, 2004)

34.  Role in stratosphere (Crutzen, 1976)  A novel tracer of carbon sequestration?

35. (Campbell et al., Science, 2008)

36. (Campbell et al., In Prep)

39.  Rapid growth with or without sustainability basis.  Resources available for a multi-disciplinary approach to bioenergy research and education.  Many opportunities for engaging with industry, policy, and mass media.

40.  NSF/CAREER (Env’l Sustainability Program #0955141)  DOE/Institute for Climatic Change (#050516Z30)  Stanford/Carnegie: Chris Field, Joe Berry, David Lobell  Iowa: Jerry Schnoor, Greg Carmichael  NASA: Stephanie Vay, Randy Kawa  Wonderful Students! Andrew Mckuin, Brandi McKuin, Chi-Chung Tsao, Patrick Wiley, Xianyu Yang

41.  Question: What are the life-cycle GHG emissions of ethanol (g CO 2 e MJ -1 )?  Objective: Team presentations in 30 min (~4 slides)  Materials: http://faculty.ucmerced.edu/ecampbell3/ucsc/http://faculty.ucmerced.edu/ecampbell3/ucsc/  Approach: Modify a widely referenced LCA model (Farrell et al., Science, 2006) with updated information  Team 1: Crutzen et al. (N2O)  Team 2: Plevin et al. (Feedstock location)  Team 3: Searchinger et al. (Indirect land-use)  Team 4: Fargione et al. (Direct land-use)

47. 209.631.9312 | ecampbell3@ucmerced.edu

49. (Tilman, 2009)

51. (Raupach et al., PNAS, 2007)

53. (RAEL)

54. MORTALITY HOSPITAL ADMISSION MORTALITY HOSPITAL ADMISSION (Campbell, et al., In Preparation)

55. (Campbell et al., In Preparation)

56. (Fox & Campbell, ES&T, 2010)