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Fredericksburg Regional Alliance Welcomes Stephen S. Fuller, PhD Dwight Schar Faculty Chair and University Professor Director, Center for Regional Analysis.

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Presentation on theme: "Fredericksburg Regional Alliance Welcomes Stephen S. Fuller, PhD Dwight Schar Faculty Chair and University Professor Director, Center for Regional Analysis."— Presentation transcript:

1 Fredericksburg Regional Alliance Welcomes Stephen S. Fuller, PhD Dwight Schar Faculty Chair and University Professor Director, Center for Regional Analysis George Mason University

2  Mission: Grow Regional Economy  Only Regional Economic Development Organization in VA that Raises its Own Money  Is Governed by a 16 Member Board of Directors  Business Community Leaders and Elected Officials Serve on the Same Board  One of 16 Regional Economic Development Organizations in Virginia

3 Thank You City of Fredericksburg Caroline CountyStafford County Spotsylvania CountyKing George County And The Numerous Private Sector Businesses in the Fredericksburg Region

4 A-Long Realty Advisors Anderson & Strudwick Appian Realty Advisors BB&T Birchwood Power Partners, L.P. Carter Bank & Trust City of Fredericksburg EDA City of Fredericksburg County of Caroline Cox Business Services CVS Distribution Design Craft Homes Dickinson Equipment, Inc. Directive 63 Dominion Virginia Power ECS Mid-Atlantic, LLC English Construction Company, Inc. Fredericksburg Area Association of Realtors Freeman Beverage Company, Inc. G.L.M.G. GEICO Germanna Community College GWRC HCA Hilldrup Moving & Storage Jabberwocky Books & Albertine Prop. Johnson Realty Advisors King George County King George EDA Luck Stone Medicorp Mid-Atlantic Foam MITCO Land Development Co. M&T Bank Muvico Old Dominion Electric Cooperative P.C. Goodloe & Son, Inc. PBGH, LLP PermaTreat Inc. - Corporate Office Peoples Community Bank PNC Bank Pohanka Nissan Cadillac Quarles Petroleum, Inc. Rappahannock Electric Cooperative Robert B. Payne, Inc. Rosner Motors Sands, Anderson, Marks & Miller Silver Companies Spangler Erkert & Associates Splitsville Spotsylvania County Spotsylvania County EDA Stafford County Stafford County EDA Stellar One Thalhimer/Cushman & Wakefield The Garrett Company The Roseman Company The Wardman Companies, Inc. Tommy Mitchell Real Estate Ultimate Pontiac, Buick, GMC, Isuzu Union Bank & Trust Universal Stone & Supplies University of Mary Washington VA Commerce Bank Vanderpool, Frostick & Nishanian, P.C. Verizon Virginia Credit Union Virginia Partners Bank Virginia Community Bank W.J. Vakos & Company W.M. Jordan Company Thank You Investors

5 Strengths of the Fredericksburg Regional Economy  Healthcare - Destination  Government Contracting - 850  3 Military Bases – Unique Cluster  Federal Payroll (in addition to military)  Location – 46 miles of I-95  Labor Force (1.2 Million) – Reverse Commute  Retail Shopping Destination – 520,000 Trade Area  Tourism and Hospitality Industry  Financial Services, Real Estate and Insurance  Growth in Higher Education  Construction  Local Government  Transportation  Utilities

6 Fredericksburg Regional Alliance Welcomes Stephen S. Fuller, PhD Dwight Schar Faculty Chair and University Professor Director, Center for Regional Analysis George Mason University

7 Fredericksburg Regional Alliance December 2, 2010 The Washington Area Economy and The Changing Role of the Federal Government Stephen S. Fuller, PhD Dwight Schar Faculty Chair and University Professor Director, Center for Regional Analysis George Mason University

8 Quarters After Trough % Change in GDP Recession Recovery Patterns of GDP Past Four Recessions Sources: BEA, GMU Center for Regional Analysis,

9 U.S. Gross Domestic Product Quarterly Change: 2006 – 2012 % 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: Global Insight Forecast > > > > > > >

10 The Washington Economy

11 Washington MSA Leading Economic Index Month-Over-Year Percent Change 12-Month Moving Average

12 Annual Job Change Washington MSA 000s Annual Data Annual Month over Year 2008 2009 2010 Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

13 15 Largest Job Markets Job Change Oct 09 – Oct 10 (000s) Washington + 43,700 Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

14 Job Change by Sector Oct 2009 – Oct 2010 Washington MSA (000s) Total 43,700 Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

15 Unemployment Rate % Source: BLS, Not Seasonally Adjusted 9.5 – DC 9.2 – U.S. 6.3 – SMD 5.9 – MSA 4.8 - NVA

16 Employment Change by Sub-state Region (000s ) 20072008200920102011201220132014 D.C.5.310.1-0.76.27.26.77.27.3 Sub. MD 4.8-1.4-26.79.39.711.113.314.7 No. VA 13.24.4-24.516.720.426.528.329.9 REGION23.312.9-51.932.237.344.348.851.9 Average Annual Change 1990-2008 = 37,000 Source: BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis, 2009-2014 based on 2010 Benchmark data from BLS

17 Economic Outlook (GRP) – 2015 Washington Area and Sub-state Portions (Annual % Change) % DC SM MSA NV Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis

18 The Changing Federal Role

19 2000 Structure of the Greater Washington Economy Local Business 39.5% Non-Local Business 14.4 % Federal 31.3% Procurement 12.0% Hosp. 2.9% Int’l 5.0% Other 6.9% Other Federal 19.3% Other: Health/Education,Media,Assns

20 2009 Structure of the Greater Washington Economy Local Business 38.3% Non-Local Business 11.8 % Federal 36.7% Procurement 19.4% Hosp. 1.9% Int’l 4.6% Other 6.7% Other Federal 17.3 % Other: Health/Education,Media,Assns

21 Share of Washington Area Economy 1970-2008 Northern Virginia Suburban MD D.C. % of GRP

22 Total Federal Spending Washington Metro Area Billions Current $ Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis Total Procurement

23 Wages & Salaries Procurement Federal Spending By Type 1984 - 2009 $ Billions

24 Federal Procurement Washington Metro Area, 1980 - 2009 $ Billions | | TOTAL = $794 B

25 Job Change by Sector Mar 2000 – Mar 2010 Washington MSA (000s) Total 302,200 Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

26 Federal Procurement in The Washington MSA $ Billions Source: Census Consolidated Federal Funds Reports Total DOD Annual Growth: Total = 11.1 %/yr DOD = 12.7 %/yr

27 DOD Federal Procurement in MSA Projection of Sec. Gates Proposed Cuts $ Billions Source: Census Consolidated Federal Funds Reports - $9.5 Billion - 66,000 Jobs

28 Change in Federal Employment by Administration AdministrationPeriod Wash. Metro U.S. Eisenhower1953 – 1960- 22,200-158,000 Kennedy-Johnson1961 – 1968+ 80,200+490,000 Nixon-Ford1969 – 1976+ 36,000+ 11,000 Carter1977 – 1980+ 18,000+ 12,000 Reagan1981 – 1988- 6,200+195,000 Bush 11989 – 1992+ 3,500+ 21,000 Clinton1993 – 2000- 41,500-341,000 Bush 22001 – 2008+ 22,900-35,000 Obama2009 -+28,000+125,000

29 Federal Employment Washington Metro Area 000s Eisenhower Kennedy – Johnson Nixon - Ford Carter Reagan Bush 1 Clinton Bush 2 - 22 + 80 + 36 + 18 - 6 + 4 - 42 + 23 Obama +28

30 Annual Change in Federal Employment Washington Metro Area 000s | IKE | K/J |Nixon-Ford | Car | Reagan| B1 | Clinton | Bush 2| Ob.

31 U.S. Retirements240,000 Other Separations144,000 Total Replacements384,000 Net New (in Budget)150,000 Recovery Act Hires Made Permanent 50,000 TOTAL REQUIREMENT584,000 Projected Federal Job Growth* 2009 - 2012 * Full-time, permanent, non-seasonal

32 Washington Metropolitan Area Total Replacements99,550 Net New26,000 TOTAL125,550 Projected Federal Job Growth* 2009 - 2012 Annual Net New 09-12 6,500 Annual Net New 05-09 5,300 Annual Net New 99-09 3,550 * Full-time, permanent, non-seasonal

33 Future Job Change by Sector 2010 – 2020 Washington MSA (000s) Total 469,800 Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

34 POLICY-CRA.GMU.EDU

35 Fredericksburg Regional Alliance Welcomes Stephen S. Fuller, PhD Dwight Schar Faculty Chair and University Professor Director, Center for Regional Analysis George Mason University

36 The Fredericksburg Regional Alliance Wishes You Happy Holidays! Joyeuses Fêtes! Felices Fiestas! Vesele Praznike! Tanoshii kurisumasu wo! Forhe Feiertage! Mutlu Bayramlar! Jie Ri Yu Kuai! Buone Feste!

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