1. The 2011 Census in the West Midlands: housing trends and patterns Richard Turkington, Rachel Wright & John Connell richardturkington@housingvision.co.uk 22 nd April 2013 | The Futures Network West Midlands

2. Structure Within the limitations of published Census data: Take stock of changes since 2001 Where are we now? Where do we go from here? The Big Questions Understanding the maps Red/pink = high: which does not always mean good! Dark/pale blue = low: which is not always bad!

3. Taking Stock: growth 2.3 million homes, growth of 144,000 or 7% Lowest: North Warwickshire 2.5% Highest: Rugby 15% What type of homes have been added? Detached: 19% (24% in total) Semi-detached: 24% (37% in total) Terraced: 15% (23% in total) Purpose-built flats: 35% (13% in total) Converted flats: 4% (2% in total) Other: 3% (1% in total)

6. Tenure Change Private rented sector As a proportion - has doubled to 14% Sector has grown everywhere, from 55% in Stratford to almost 300% in Redditch Home ownership As a proportion - declined from 69% to 65% Numbers have grown by 6% in Shropshire but fallen by 7% in Coventry

9. Tenure change Where has this left social renting? As a proportion - declined from 21% to 19% The place of shared ownership? Stabilised at 0.7% - growth of 750 units 0.35% in Staffordshire Moorlands to 1.1% in Stratford-upon-Avon Strongest growth in Birmingham - 500 units Stock has declined in some locations By over 700 units in Stoke-on-Trent

11. Tenure & older people Very different patterns for 65+ households: 75% home ownership 19% social rented 4% private renting Implications? Level of equity owned Good quality of social rented housing Poor quality of private rented housing The likelihood of downsizing What if this doesn’t happen?

13. Where are we now? Under-occupation 2 or more bedrooms: 36% for all households Likely to be double for 65+ households From 26% in Stoke-on-Trent To 48% in Bromsgrove

15. Where are we now? Overcrowding 3.9% of all households have 1 bedroom less than their requirements 0.7% have 2 bedrooms less From 1.8% in Bromsgrove, Malvern & Stratford To 7% in Sandwell & 9% in Birmingham

17. Where are we now? The quality of housing No central heating 3% of all households From 1.5-1.6% in Redditch, Cannock and Lichfield To 3.9-4.1% in East Staffordshire & Birmingham Though can people afford to use it?

19. Where do we go from here? Gross requirements 2011-21 Gross housing requirements by age and bedsize Age/ Bedsize 15-2425-3435-4445-5455-5960-6465-7475-8485 +Totals Shared 5,7755,680-2,136-3,5841,123-1,3315,51212,0396,07229,150 1 bed -7,4541,293-5,513-4,63422,322-11,54810,77629,68128,25863,181 2 bed -1,0708,36211,05516,4254,9471,1121,09082372643,470 3 bed 1,1075,571-6,924-1,78813,1904,64311,2353,95126931,254 4 bed + 1591,7021,9315,02939843056224413810,593 15-2425-3435-4445-5455-5960-6465-7475-8485 + Totals -1,48322,608-1,58711,44841,980-6,69429,17546,73835,463177,648

20. Where do we go from here? Net requirements 2011-21 Net housing requirements by bedsize taking account of underoccupation and low levels of downsizing Specialised housing for older people BedsizeShared1 bed2 bed3 bed4 bed+ Total net additional households Totals 29,15032,25943,47062,17610,593 + 177,648 65+ HouseholdsDesignatedShelteredExtra CareTotals 2011 40,84519,48135,71596,041 2021 47,85022,82241,841112,513 Additional households 7,0063,3416,12616,473 Specialised housing as % of total net requirement 9.27%

21. The Big Questions 1.Understanding housing market dynamics - ‘musical chairs’, changing requirements & the ‘fit’ between housing and households? 2.The place of regeneration and renewal? 3.The emergence of new problems in old areas or new problems in new areas? 4.The stability and security of private renting? 5.Housing older people - stay or move? 6.Providing more homes - quantity & quality?