1. South East London sub-region Strategic Housing Market Assessment Jonathan Lee Chris Broughton Opinion Research Services

2. Issues for Discussion… What is the role of the South East London boroughs in relation to Greater London? What are their individual and collective strengths and weaknesses? Do the South East London boroughs constitute a cohesive sub-region? What are the opportunities and threats for these boroughs in the current market? How might things change over the longer-term?

3. Presentation Overview Introduction Current housing market Population growth Migration and economy Recent market changes

4. Introducing ORS Generic social research organisation –Spin-out company from Swansea University –Established in 1988, not primarily commercial –40 full-time staff –Specialise in quantitative and qualitative research methods Research includes –Housing & planning – SHMAs, need/demand analysis –Health – promotion/primary/secondary care –Local government – Panels/BVPI/employees –Emergency services – police and fire

5. Greater London Authority –Regional SHMA 2008 Quality Reviews for EERA and GOEM –Identifying good practice in Strategic HMA work Further Strategic HMA work –Bedfordshire, LCB East, LCB West, Milton Keynes, Greater Norwich, Exeter/Torbay, West Cornwall, Birmingham, South East Wales, Neath Port Talbot Over 60 further local housing studies English Partnerships –Accredited consultants for SHMA work Housing Research Portfolio

6. The PPS3 Vision SHMA SHLAA Housing Trajectory & Mix Annual Monitoring Report Housing & PDL Targets (Local & Regional) PLAN MONITOR MANAGE

7. What is an SHMA? The Vision –a key tool to inform policy and help shape strategic thinking in housing and planning The Basics –a robust evidence base –promotes joint working –not a snap-shot survey but an ongoing process –provides estimate of the need for affordable housing and demand for market housing –helps understand requirements of niche groups ‘an exercise of judgement, rather than a simple analysis of factual material’ (North West RSS EiP Panel Report 08 05 07)

8. Approach in South East London Household survey –personal interviews –addresses selected at random –detailed interviews –overall sample size = 7,250 households –Bexley 1,250 – Bromley 1,250 – Greenwich 1,500 –Lewisham 1,500 – Southwark 1,750 Secondary data analysis Stakeholder engagement –Developers – RSLs – Estate and Letting Agents –Private Landlords – Housing Front-line Staff – Planners –Supporting People Commissioners – Lenders – HEIs –Business Community – Neighbouring Authorities

9. Different Levels of SHMA Impact Regional –Developing regional housing policy evidence base –Informing Regional Housing Strategy reviews –Assisting with reviews of Regional Spatial Strategy Sub-regional –Deepening understanding of housing markets at the strategic (usually sub-regional) level –Developing an evidence base for sub-regional housing strategy Local –Developing an evidence base for Local Development Documents –Assisting with production of local Core Strategies

10. OVERVIEW OF THE AREA Current Housing Market

11. Index of Multiple Deprivation Source: CLG

12. Housing Tenure Source: Census 2001, SHMA 2008 Preliminary Analysis

13. Private Rented Stock: 2001 Source: SHMA 2008

14. Private Rented Stock: 2008 Source: SHMA 2008

15. South East London: Current demographics compared to all England Source: ONS Mid-year Population Estimate

17. South East London: Projected population growth to 2001-26 Source: GLA 2007 Round Population Projections

18. Increase in Number of Dwellings 2001-2007 Source: Census 2001, VOA 2007

19. MIGRATION AND LOCAL ECONOMY Housing Market Drivers

20. International Migration 2001-06 Source: ONS Migration Unit

21. UK Migration 2002-2007 Source: NHS Central Register

22. Number of SE London Migrants moving within the UK by Age: 2007 Source: NHS Central Register

23. Net SE London Migrants moving within the UK by Age: 2007 Source: NHS Central Register

24. Net Migration 2001-06 BexleyBromleyGreenwichLewishamSouthwark UK In-migrants51,80074,90070,80080,80088,700 Out-migrants52,70075,00081,000102,700116,800 Net Change-900-100-10,200-21,900-28,100 International In-migrants3,8009,40017,20022,40043,100 Out-migrants3,30010,40010,7009,90016,200 Net Change+500-1,000+6,500+12,500+26,900 TOTAL-400-1,100-3,700-9,400-1,200 Source: ONS Migration Unit

25. Household Income: Existing vs. Migrant Households All Households In-migrantsOut-migrant Household Income Mean (£ pa) Bexley34,20038,70038,900 Bromley --- Greenwich32,00047,20042,400 Lewisham37,40041,10042,100 Southwark29,90036,10038,000 Source: SHMA 2008 Preliminary Analysis

26. Household Income Source: SHMA 2008

27. Household Income: Households with Incomes less than £20,000 Mean Income Median Income % under £20K Household Income (£ pa) Bexley34,20025,80040% Bromley --- Greenwich32,00022,20048% Lewisham37,40019,20052% Southwark29,90016,80056% Source: SHMA 2008 Preliminary Analysis

28. Employment Sector Trends Source: Labour Force Survey/Annual Population Survey

29. Employment Sector Trends Source: Labour Force Survey/Annual Population Survey

30. HOUSING COSTS Housing Market Drivers

31. Annual Change in House Prices Source: Land Registry

32. Annual Change in House Prices Source: Land Registry

33. Annual Change in House Prices Source: Land Registry

34. Annual Change in House Prices Source: Land Registry

35. Annual Change in House Prices Source: Land Registry

36. Annual Change in House Prices Source: Land Registry

37. Annual Change in House Prices Source: Land Registry

38. Prices are now falling very fast More to come Plus… Loss of new build premium New home prices down by 20-40% Source: Nationwide, Halifax

39. with a big hit to turnover – particularly take up of new homes most notably amongst investors first time buyers Source: HBF, Bank of England

40. Fastest falls are in the South of England

41. Underlying demand is still there But… Higher supply is leading to rental weakness

42. Any Questions……. Jonathan Lee Opinion Research Services jonathan.lee@ors.org.uk

43. Issues for Discussion… What is the role of the South East London boroughs in relation to Greater London? What are their individual and collective strengths and weaknesses? Do the South East London boroughs constitute a cohesive sub-region? What are the opportunities and threats for these boroughs in the current market? How might things change over the longer-term?