1. Elizabeth Sall, Billy Charlton, Elizabeth Bent San Francisco County Transportation Authority Greg Erhardt PB Evaluating Regional Pricing Strategies in San Francisco : Application of the SFCTA Activity-Based Regional Pricing Model

2. 2 OVERVIEW  Mobility Access and Pricing Study  Overview of Model Enhancements  Scenarios tested  Presentation of results

3. 3 PRICING STUDY – WHY?  Bay Area is 2 nd most congested region in the nation (Texas Transportation Institute)  Average peak period trip to Downtown SF is twice as long as off-peak trip  San Francisco sacrificed over $2 billion to congestion in 2005  4.6 million daily trips are made to/from/within San Francisco  Peak transit mode share to Downtown just over 40%  About half of all trips made by regional travelers Source: SFCTA, Spring 2006 LOS Monitoring SFMTA, Spring 2007AVL Monitoring Results Congested Streets in San Francisco Focus Area Congested Transit Segment (travel speed below 8 mph) Congested Auto Segment (highway speed below 30 mph road speed below 10 mph)

4. 4 Stockton St, 5 pm (Jan 2009)

5. 5 View from Treasure Island | Skyline today Courtesy, SF Planning Department

6. 6 View from Treasure Island | Approved Plans Courtesy, SF Planning Department

7. 7 View from Treasure Island | According to the Transbay Plan Courtesy, SF Planning Department

8. 8 PRICING STUDY – BASE YEAR ANALYSIS  High share of peak period trips to the focus area from within San Francisco  Strong South Bay reverse commute (auto-dominated)  High share of non-commute travel during peak hours Distribution & Mode Share of Trips to/from/within Focus Area (PM Peak Period)

9. 9 PRICING SCENARIO COMPONENTS  Who do we charge / who gets a break?  What toll level?  Where and when would we toll?  How would the tolls be reinvested to improve overall mobility?

10. 10 Congested Streets in SF Downtown Cordon Gateway with Parking Pricing Double Ring Northeast Cordon WHERE would the toll be?     Congested Transit Segment (travel speed below 8 mph) Congested Auto Segment (highway speed below 30 mph road speed below 10 mph)

11. 11 WHERE are AUTO TRIPS coming from?  Where are the vehicles causing downtown congestion coming from?

12. 12 WHEN would there be a toll? Average Daily Traffic Volumes in Downtown Areas $3 fee per Crossing WEEKDAY PEAK PERIODS ONLY

13. 13 WHO ? Type of Driver/ GroupLevel of Discount Taxi, TransitFREE Commercial Vehicles, ShuttlesFLEET Rental Cars & CarsharingFLEET Toll-payer ‘Fee’-bate$1 off Low-Income (Lifeline Value)50% off Disabled Drivers50% off Zone Residents50% off Low-Emission Vehicles- HOV/Carpool- may be accompanied by investment in Means-Based Fare Assistance Program helps minimize administrative impacts for businesses, and keeps industry moving would require documentation of inability to take transit

14. 14 HOW to REINVEST? Candidate Enhancements/ContributionsStartup ProgramBasic PackageEnhanced Package BRT: Van Ness & Geary; transit priority enhancements  More frequent local and regional transit service  Regional transit parking access enhancements  Transit facilities and operational enhancements  Caltrain Electrification  Real-time Information  Road resurfacing  Traffic and parking management, traffic calming  South Bay HOV-lane  Bicycle facilities expansion: bike lanes/paths; bike sharing  Streetscape: Civic Center & Downtown  Program education  Ongoing monitoring & evaluation  Means-based fare assistance*  Additional programs: green taxis, school TDM, etc.   program could generate $35-65 million annually (net) in transportation improvement fees TRANSIT ROADWAY WALK/ BIKE POLICY

15. 15 Model Enhancements for Pricing  Expanded Geographic Breadth to entire Bay Area  Memory efficiencies needed  Sampling used to Avoid Long Run Times

16. 16 Model Enhancements for Pricing  Added Feedback Loops  Link Volume averaging from previous iteration  Trip Table averaging between random seeds Seed5 Seed4 Avg. Trip Tables of 5 Seeds Hwy Assign Avg. Link Volumes Hwy Skims Seeds 1 Thru 5 Avg. Trip Tables of 5 Seeds Hwy Assign Avg. Link Volumes Hwy Skims Seeds 1 Thru 5 Avg. Trip Tables of 5 Seeds Hwy Assign Avg. Link Volumes Seed1 Seed2 Seed3 Done! Seed Trip Tables/Skims

17. 17 Model Enhancements for Pricing  Used Destination Choice Logsum by Market Segment for Accessibility Measure (for Auto Availability and Tour Generation models)  Added Toll to Tour and Trip Mode Choice  Take advantage of work and non-work VOT distributions using varying cost coefficient.  Mixed-logit joint mode and departure time choice model  Auxiliary Time-of-Day model added for auto trips with 30-minute resolution in peaks

18. 18 Model Enhancements for Pricing  Re-evaluated transit paths and highway assignment procedures  Area Pricing Logic  Extra Highway Assignment User Classes needed for “already paid”  Pass-thru trips logic  Discount logic (i.e. Bridge “feebate” logic)

19. 19 PRICING STUDY – MODEL ANALYSIS Microscopic nature allows us to use many types of model output to feed multiple parts of the pricing feasibility analysis  Toll Policy: What is the best shape, size, and toll-structure?  Revenue Generation: How many transactions? Can test various discount policies (bridge toll-payers, residents of cordon, low-income, maximum tolls etc).  Equity Analysis: Travel patterns of low-income HHs, zero-car HHs  Congestion Mitigation: Transit and Auto Speeds, Vehicles Hours of Delay  Effective Revenue Reinvestment: Responsiveness to various transit packages.

20. 20 SCENARIO COMPARISON  A good toll policy:  Obtains mobility objective AND  Does not have significant disbenefits  Many Policies we examined had major pros AND major cons and were thrown out

21. 21 SCENARIO COMPARISON  “Southern Gateway”  A lot of benefit, but... Percent Difference in PM Volume

22. 22 SCENARIO COMPARISON  “Southern Gateway”  A lot of benefit, but... ...not in the focus area Percent Difference in PM Volume (for Baseline v/c > 0.70)

23. 23 SCENARIO COMPARISON  Is somewhere in the middle just right? Percent Difference in PM Volume

24. 24 SCENARIO COMPARISON - EQUITY  Lower-income households would likely gain more access to the Focus Area with congestion pricing  Additional benefits are likely through discounts, other program investments Daily Travel to/from Focus Area by Mode for Households with Income under $50K (AM Peak Period) SF-CHAMP, October 2008 5% more travel among low- income households with reinvestment of revenues no significant change in travel for low-income households in the future

25. 25 SCENARIO COMPARISON  15% decrease in peak- period auto person-trips  Some people continue to drive  Some shift time or route of trip  Others take transit/other modes  Others carpool/vanpool more  10% decrease in peak- period auto travel times  over 30% reduction in peak-period delay to the Focus Area  up to 15% reduction in mobile-source greenhouse gas emissions # of daily trips is likely to remain the same with or without congestion pricing # of daily trips is likely to remain the same across alternatives Daily Travel to/from/within Focus Area 10% increase in daily trips to the Focus Area between 2005 and 2015

26. 26 STILL TO COME… Winter/Spring 2009Refine scenarios  Range of improvements  Pricing policy, discount policy  Economic benefit/impact assessment  Health benefit/impact assessment  Ongoing outreach Summer 2009Board Action:  Study Report and recommendations  Define potential next steps - Determine Timeline for Design & Implementation - Legislative Authority - Environmental Clearance

27. Billy Charlton billy.charlton@sfcta.org billy.charlton@sfcta.org (415) 522-4816 Elizabeth Sall elizabeth.sall@sfcta.or g elizabeth.sall@sfcta.or g (415) 522-4810 Elizabeth Bent zabe.bent@sfcta.org Greg Erhardt erhardt@pbworld.com