1. The Republican Primaries

2. Office Hours When – Today- 11-2 – Wednesday 10-2 Doyle 226B

3. Learning Outcomes Analyze the theories of why people vote and apply them to the 2012 Election. Identify and describe the formal and informal institutions involved in the electoral process

4. Rules of the Nominating Game Just Like Vegas, Never play a game you don’t know how to play

5. Rules of the Game: Frontloading The movement of state primaries and caucuses earlier and earlier in the campaign season The Impact of Frontloading

6. Why early wins are important Money goes to winners Media Coverage goes to winners

7. Be the last person standing Build upon early wins Force your opponents to drop out

9. THE LESSONS OF 2008 John McCain and the Republicans

10. Delegate Apportionment in 2008 The Democrats More Delegates Proportional Representation Super Delegates The Republicans Fewer Delegates More winner-take-all states

11. The Advantage of the Long Democratic Campaign for Obama Scrutiny Kept him in the News Tested his leadership Made the party enthusiastic

12. How Mc Cain Wins Early: 2008 Winner-take-all states The Early win is A blessing and a curse for McCain

13. Benefits of the Early McCain Victory Cost savings Refocus Campaign Strategy Avoids additional party infighting

14. Costs of the McCain victory Never shores up the Evangelicals Too reliant on unreliable independents Out of the news for 5 months

15. THE DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION

16. Obama Wins! No serious challenger He could focus on being President He didn’t have to spend money

17. THE 2012 REPUBLICAN NOMINATION

18. Frontloading and 2012 Take a Page from the Democratic Playbook The GOP require more states use proportional representation Punish early movers They did not want an early nominee.

19. Advantages And Disadvantages of a Long Primary AdvantageDisadvantage

20. Frontloading and 2012

21. The First Four in 2012 Iowa New Hampshire South Carolina Florida

22. These Rules Were Intended to Extend the Nomination, which it did…. But it also brought unintended consequences!

23. IOWA AND NEW HAMPSHIRE

24. Frontloading: Iowa and NH Traditionally the first caucus and primary Both states have resisted changing their dates States were punished for moving up too close

25. Frontloading: NH and IA Not essential, but helpful for victory Criticisms of these states

26. Iowa: The Results

27. Iowa part II The Original Results Romney Does better than expected

28. Perry Falters Broke 5 th place Doesn’t know what to do

29. Romney Has Momentum Looking like a winner and Actually winning Media coverage goes to those who can win. Moves to New Hampshire

30. New Hampshire

31. The New Hampshire Results Romney wins easily Huntsman drops out Ron Paul comes in 3 rd Santorum didn’t campaign hard there

32. THE SOUTH Florida and South Carolina

33. South Carolina

34. The Return of Newt Gingrich The End of Rick Perry A state where Romney has never done well

35. Romney after South Carolina A Wasp Funeral Go After Gingrich….Hard Paint Gingrich as a corrupt insider

36. Florida Winner-Take-All Romney wins an Important Battleground State

37. SUPER TUESDAY

38. What Was at Stake 10 States More than 400 Delegates 21 states and 800+ delegates in 2008

39. Romney is in Trouble All negative campaign Outspending opponents His message was wearing thin Likeability Problem

40. The Return of Santorum Hard Work Culture War Still a flawed Candidate (he always took the bait)

41. Not the Game Changer This in 2008To This in 2012

42. Romney wins 6 Santorum wins 3 Gingrich wins 1 Ron Paul will never quit

43. The Delegate Count

44. Super Tuesday

45. WHY ROMNEY WON The End of the Line

46. For Newt and Rick I probably will not be the candidate Does beating up Romney serve any purpose?

47. The End Santorum is Done on April 10 Gingrich on May 2 nd Ron Paul Finally quits on May 22 Romney Clinches on June 5th

48. Its over

49. Why Romney Won It was built to last through superior funding Essentially error free Lack of infighting and scandal Followed the Atwater Rule