1. Public Opinion

2. What is Public Opinion Definition: The distribution of the population’s beliefs about politics and policy issues When there is a generally agreement, we call that a consensus

3. Something to think about… In 1984, researchers asked 1200 Cincinnati residents whether they favored passage of the Monetary Control Bill of 1983. Here are the results: Favored the bill – 21% Opposed the bill – 25% The rest didn’t care much or didn’t know about it

4. THERE IS NO SUCH THING AS THE MONETARY CONTROL BILL OF 1983!

5. How Polls are Conducted Sample – small proportion of people who are chosen to represent the whole – Accuracy of polls depends on random sampling (everyone should have an equal probability of being selected) – Sampling Error – the level of confidence in the accuracy of the results produced by sample The more people interviewed, the more confident you can be 1500 – 2000 respondents have a sampling error of +/-3% (results are within 3 % of what population thinks)

6. Accurate representation is the most important feature of a survey! A 1936 Literary Digest poll underestimated the vote for FDR by 19%, erroneously predicting a big victory for Republican Alf Landon. The well-established magazine suddenly became a laughingstock and soon went out of business. # of responses to survey – 2,376,000 (wow!) Sample was pulled from telephone book and motor vehicle records So what was wrong with the survey?

7. How are Polls used? To determine public preferences – Supporters of public polling suggest that it helps democracy by keeping leaders informed of how the public feels – Critics of public polling suggest that it makes politicians more concerned with following than leading Can distort the election process – Bandwagon effect – Exit polls (allow the media to project the “winner”

8. How are Polls used? Pollsters can get the results that they want – Wording of a question

9. So, where do our beliefs come from? Especially party identification? Family Religion – Social status (ex: early in US history, Catholic immigrants faced discrimination, sided with the doctrine that was most sympathetic to their flight) – Religious tradition Gender Gap – difference in views between male and female Schooling and Information

10. Cleavages in Public Opinion Cleavages refers to the “split” or “division” – Race, income, gender, level of education, etc. Cross-cutting Cleavage – one group separated by a cleavage (race), may not be wholly separated by another (income)