1. Ram Krishnan Department of Education 1H:\Excel\FTE\Workshop\2009\FEFPA

2. What is FTE (Full-Time Equivalent)  An FTE is the unit of measurement employed by the State of Florida to count PK-12 public school student enrollment for the purposes of funding education.  FTE and enrollment are not synonymous.  To get a full FTE: Enrolled full-time in school Must be in attendance on survey weeks  Those not full-time generate a proportionate fraction of FTE

3. FTE and COFTE Compared 3 FTE (Full-Time Equivalent) Is a type of count of Public School Students Sums Surveys 1 - 4 Used for funding Operations COFTE Is a subset of FTE Sums Surveys 2 - 3 Used for funding Facilities

4. Relationship of COFTE and FTE COFTE A subset of Surveys 2 & 3 FTE Survey 1 (July) Survey 4 (June) FTE is sum of Surveys 1-4 Survey 2 & 3 FTE (Oct & Feb)

5. COFTE Includes:  Conversion Charter Schools  Students instructed in a public school facility  Surveys 2 and 3 5

6. COFTE Does NOT Include:  Traditional Charter Schools  Hospital / Homebound  McKay Scholarships  DJJ students  Washington Special students  Florida Virtual School students  Students held at ancillary offices like Superintendent’s office 6

7. Charter School Trends 7

8. Non-COFTE Enrollment Trends FTE Type2005-062006-072007-082008-09 DJJ 13,632.25 12,297.67 11,088.57 10,910.21 FLVS 4,684.43 6,865.90 9,686.52 14,000.01 McKay 15,420.41 16,429.96 17,965.85 18,760.22 Charter 79,171.87 85,546.67 91,228.83 102,356.70 8

9. FTE and COFTE Trends 9

10. Capital Outlay FTE: Purpose  Used to determine the amount of PECO funds going to each district  These funds are used for ○ Buildings ○ Work stations ○ Support Facilities 10

11. FTE Forecasts Forecast used for DOE Budget to Governor and for Legislative Three-Year forecast Summer Forecast Refinement of Summer Forecast based on October Survey Forecast Used for Governor’s Budget to Legislature December Forecast School District Forecast after review and approval by Education Estimating Conference January-March Forecast Refinement of Jan-Mar Forecast based on February Survey Final input into the Legislative process March-April Forecast 11

12. Capital Outlay FTE Forecast  2009-10 COFTE is estimate based on Appropriated FTE Used to Determine DRS Millage Rates  2011-20 is the Ten Year Forecast ○ Used for 5 year plan Education Facilities Plan District Facilities Work Plan ○ Used by Dept of Community Affairs for Growth Management Purposes ○ Issues dealing with Concurrency 12

13. Appropriated FTE  Is based on district forecast ○ Districts and DOE work together to come up with FTE Forecast that will be used to Appropriate Education Funds if approved by the Public School Education Conference  Is also used as baseline to generate COFTE forecasts 13

14. Determine Regular Term FTE  Start with Appropriated FTE  Include FTE for Surveys 2 and 3  Subtract Survey 1 and Survey 4  Forecast 10 year Regular Term  Once the Regular Term forecast has been generated, our next step is to Forecast COFTE 14

15. COFTE Inputs COFTE Historical Data (10 years) ○ 1999-2000 to 2008-09 Birth Data ○ Received from BEBR / EDR ○ 2014-15 onwards is projected birth Non-Promotions ○ Removed non-COFTE non-promotions 15

16. COFTE Forecast Process Initial DOE Forecast Births Historical COFTE COFTE part of Appropriated FTE Formulas Formulas are Cohort Survival Models that control for the non- promotion policy of the school district Review by School Districts Review of District Appeals by State Estimating Conference Accept/Appeal Final Forecast Process includes state and district review and input Non- promotions

17. Cohort Models  Calculated By District and By Grade  Based on premise that the best predictor of a grade’s enrollment is the enrollment of the prior grade the year before. Grade 8 enrollment in Year 1 Grade Progression Ratio Net effect of non- promotions Grade 9 enrollment in Year 2 Represents effect of net migration

18. GPRs  A Grade Progression Ratio (GPR) is the ratio of the number of students in a specific grade in one year compared to the number of students in the next grade in the following year.  GPRs are used for both FTE and COFTE forecasting 18

19. Unweighted GPR YearGradeFTE 2005-064364.25 2006-075379.00 19 GradeNP 05-06 45 55 (2006-07 G5 FTE) + (2005-06 NP G4) – (2005-06 NP G5) (2005-06 G4 FTE) GPR = Grade Progression Ratio Calculating Unweighted GPR Denominator

20. Weighted GPRs (WGPRs) 20  WGPRs are a weighted average of single year GPRs.  Averaging Scheme differ for one-year ahead and for long- term forecasts. Appropriated FTE (1-yr ahead) A simulation study is done to determine the averaging scheme (1-5 years) that best fits the historical data. Long-Term Forecast (2-10 yrs ahead) The most recent historical year GPR is used for year 2.. For years 3-10, the most recent GPR is averaged with a 10-year average GPR weighted so that each subsequent year uses less of most recent GPR and more of the 10-yr avg.

21. The Models and their Weights Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5 Model 111111 Model 21111 Model 3111 Model 411 Model 554321 Model 64321 Model 7321 Model 821 Model 91 21 Year 1 = Most Recent Historical Year

22. Long Term Weighted GPRs  Consistent  Defendable  Long term – Focus should not be solely on current conditions. Things will change in six years. However, guard against over-optimism.

23. Long-Term Weighted GPRs 23 Rationale: to conform to accepted forecasting practice that the number of years of input data increases as the forecast horizon increases.

24. The Forecast May Be Modified By District Using Contextual Judgment 24 Contextual Judgment (judgment for a specific reason) may require: Omission of specified years from calculation of WGPRs Application of a factor to discount or enhance trends.

25. The COFTE Forecast  ((Weighted GPR) * (Prior Grade of Prior Year))  Add Non-Promotions from Prior Grade of Prior Year  Subtract Non-Promotions from Current Grade of Prior Year 25

26. Summary  Entered Inputs – Historical COFTE, Appropriated COFTE Estimate, Births and Non-Promotions  Determined Unweighted GPRs  Used Models to calculate Weighted GPRs and then Long Term Weighted GPRs  Applied contextual judgement to weighted GPRs based on current conditions  Generate the COFTE forecast