1. Polar prediction services provided by the Bureau of Meteorology in support of the Australian Antarctic program. Dr Neil Adams, Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research and the Antarctic Meteorological Section, Tasmania Antarctica Region, Bureau of Meteorology.

2. 1. Overview of the service provision, 2. Forecasting systems supporting services, Observational systems, Satellite data, NWP systems, Display systems, 3. Capability gaps and future requirements.

3. Antarctica is ~ 14x10 6 km 2, the AAT ~ 5.6x10 6 km 2, Australia ~ 7.6x10 6 km 2,

5. ROUTINE. 1. Station and field party forecasts (public weather style), 2. Marine forecasts for resupply and marine research vessels, 3. Boating forecasts for local area boating activities, 4. Extended (5 to 7 day) outlooks across areas of interest field and aviation logistical support, 5. Aviation support: Terminal Area Forecasts (TAF), Landing Area Forecasts (LAF) – same as TAF but no supporting observations), Graphical Route Forecasts. Flight following weather watch. AD HOC. 1. Search and Rescue, 2. Medivac, 3. Sea-ice analysis.

6. Control PanelFull detail view + overlaysLegend (no units) Scroll view

7. Legend(same geographic extent as ASAR)

8. OBSERVATIONAL SYSTEMS. SURFACE:

11. OBSERVATIONAL SYSTEMS. UPPER AIR:

13. Davis Station HRPT (L-Band) Receiving Station. Casey X-Band Receiving Station. Satellite Systems.

14. Casey Hobart Davis Mawson McMurdo Dumont d'Urville Dome Concordia

15. McMurdo

16. Casey

19. AVHRR, MODIS and geostationary satellite data from MTSAT, FY2 and METEOSAT composited as an underlay to the polarLAPS MSLP and near surface wind flow data.

20. Numerical Weather Prediction Systems Antarctic weather is dominated by the influence of the orography. Accurate Numerical Weather Prediction is heavily dependent on model resolution. Available models include: ECMWF (~ 12.5 km global) -European local access, UKMO (~ 40 km global) UK (ensemble), NCEP-GFS (~ 50 km global)USAlocal access, ACCESS-G (~ 80 km global)Australian local access, AMPS (~ 15 km pan Antarctica)USAUSA web access, PolarLAPS (~ 27.5 km Antarctica/Southern Ocean)AustralianAust web access. ECMWF is the European global model. Over Antarctica Australia only has access to near surface variables at a resolution of around 150 km and only between 40 o and 180 o E. UKMO is the UK global model. Australia only has access to 125 km resolution data. NCEP-GFS is the US Global Forecast System (GFS) and is freely available. ACCESS-G is the new Australian global model based around the UKMO Unified Model, employing 4d-Var assimilation. It is currently running at a very coarse resolution. The Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System (AMPS) is a US system supporting the USAP and international Antarctic forecasters. It is based on the WRF model, with 3d-Var assimilation. PolarLAPS is a polar-stereographic implementation of the Australian Limited Area Prediction System (LAPS), initialised with model output from the NCEP-GFS, (no data assimilation). PolarLAPS is now finished to be replaced with ACCESS-P (UKMO-UM based).

21. AMPS +24HR output for 12Z 14 Jan 2010 ( http://www.mmm.ucar.edu/rt/amps/ ) polarLAPS (gfsLAPS version) +24HR output for 12Z 14 Jan 2010

24. Display Systems. The efficient and effective display and analysis of observational and NWP data is essential in any forecasting operation, particularly in supporting aviation operations across Antarctica. These systems have the capability of quickly encapsulating the current state of the weather and the time evolution of weather systems. The system used in Antarctic forecasting support is the Casey Antarctic Forecasting System (CAFeS).

25. Access to full 4-D NWP fields

26. Post processed fields such as model cloud diagnostics and cross-sections.

33. Route forecast system output:

34. Summary The Tasmania Antarctica Region is responsible for weather forecasting support for the Australian Antarctic program, A sparsity of observations places a heavy emphasis on satellite interpretation for weather watch and flight following services, Efficient and effective use of NWP output through dedicated weather forecasting display systems is essential for the provision of weather forecasts for the AAp.

35. Casey Dome Concordia Capability gaps and future requirements. Extensive area of liquid cloud at temperatures down to -31 o C.

36. Observed cloud base 6-8 oktas, no weather, RH% = 22%.

37. PolarLAPS RH%, cloud liquid and cloud ice water content variables. RH% Liquid water path Ice water path

41. 1. The cloud micro-physics used in polarLAPS is not tuned for the polar environment, 2. Assimilated low level moisture data is limited to the very sparse radiosonde network, 3. Low level relative humidities may not pick up significant areas of ice cloud, 4. How good are the liquid and ice water mixing ratios in NWP systems ? 5. How do we observe/verify Antarctic cloud properties ? LOW CLOUD IS A SIGNIFICANT AVIATION RISK IN ANTARCTICA.

42. THERE IS A GROWING DEMAND FOR A SEA-ICE FORECASTING SYSTEM TO ASSIST IN NAVIGATION, SEA-ICE FORECASTING SYSTEMS REQUIRE ACCURATE FORCING FROM HIGH RESOLUTION NWP SYSTEMS, ACCURATE SEA-ICE CHARACTERISTICS ARE NEEDED AS LOWER BOUNDARY CONDITIONS FOR THE NWP SYSTEMS. THERE IS A NEED TO DEVELOP AN ANTARCTIC SEA-ICE FORECASTING SYSTEM CLOSELY TIED TO AN NWP SYSTEM.