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Drought Monitor Conference “The Drought Monitor and the Grain Market” DTN Bryce Anderson Senior Ag Meteorologist DTN Corp., Omaha 402-399-6419 bryce.anderson@dtn.com
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DTN (Data Transmission Network) business-to-business info weather, commodity markets, news 80,000 clients U.S. and Canada Info via satellite and for-pay web delivery Specialized forecasts and analysis U.S. and World (South America, China, Europe, Australia, Canada)
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The Market Does Watch Weather Spring through Early Summer Planting through Full Growth/Start Reproduction Corn—Pollination Soybeans—Blooming Corn—60 cents per bushel “weather premium” Soybeans--$1.00 per bushel “weather premium”
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“Weather Premium in 2005” Corn--$6.50 Billion 60 cents/bushel x 10.86 billion bushels production Soybeans--$3.00 Billion $1/bushel x 3.00 billion bushels production
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Drought Monitor Re Grain Markets A “validator”—not an indicator Industry Use—approx. 20 per cent Why?? Delayed Publish Date vs Crop Ratings Weather Forecast Updates
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Drought Monitor/Grain Price Action July 18 Dec corn settles $2.70 July 19 Dec corn settles $2.59 July 20 Dec corn settles $2.52 ¼ July 21 Dec corn settles $2.44 ¾ (DM July 19 release)
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D.M./Grain Markets in the Future Re-Define Ag Drought?? Change from Validator to Indicator Possible Earlier-Week Publish Date Regional Focus on Prime Grain Areas (ex: Corn Belt) Ag/Seed Industry Input? Above Dependent on Drought Monitor “Mission Definition”
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Drought Monitor Conference “The Drought Monitor and the Grain Market” DTN Bryce Anderson Senior Ag Meteorologist DTN Corp., Omaha 402-399-6419 bryce.anderson@dtn.com
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