1. SMRCP-TT discussion Agenda Presentations on progress Publication update Strategic plan discussion

2. SMRCP-TT discussion Key science questions to be resolved for coupled prediction Is there enough evidence for impact? Atmospheric (growing evidence) Ocean (limited) (sonic layer, surface currents, coastal upwelling/surge?) Waves ? Sea-ice (growing evidence) Can we measure/trust the impact studies with present systems What deficiencies need to be addressed before we can quantify impact Modelling, diagnosing biases and optimising model schemes DA Interfacial fluxes Observing system Do we need to promote more controlled experiments?

3. SMRCP-TT discussion Key science questions to be resolved for coupled prediction Observational requirements Getting more from existing platforms? New requirements New experiments Focus Demonstrate impact of the ocean/wave/sea-ice on atmospheric phenomena general coupled circulation impact Regional – polar regions (YOPP), western boundary current regions Phenomena – High impact weather (Hurricanes/TC’s/East coast lows) Coupled covariance Data Assimilation Can we diagnose the impact of coupled DA with current techniques Coupled ensembles provide BEC’s Can we already use NWP increments and Ocean DA increment fields to trace error relationships? Progress with variational methods?

4. SMRCP-TT discussion Key science questions to be resolved for coupled prediction Multi-temporal phenomena Not just a coupled problem? Adaptive modelling techniques have been developed for the spatial problem. However, the time step also need to be adaptive? Has this been achieved? Need to use explicit approaches to parallelise Are adaptive DA techniques required? Can we develop more general adaptive DA techniques that perform DA at higher sampling rates localised to the temporal scales of the phenomena? Multi-grid DA? Coupled modelling Is bias more or less of an issue in coupled mode? Model drift Is the coupled boundary layer problem being addressed for our needs? Coupled predictability Bred vector studies Ensemble studies

5. SMRCP-TT discussion National plans Capability current and planned Major programs/initiatives US Europe Canada Japan China Australia

6. SMRCP-TT discussion SMRCP or CP-TT or Modelling-TT(WG) (Complementary functional group or application group) Scope Coupled prediction in an Earth Systems Modeling approach but with a focus on the the role of oceans (e.g., ocean-ice-wave interactions). Coupled DA is an essential element to CP Coordination with DA-TT to avoid overlap

7. SMRCP-TT discussion Major priorities Facilitate exchange of national and international programs of scientific progress Collation of quantified impact of earth system coupling for ocean-wave- sea-ice-atmosphere and interfacial flux phenomena Target common issues/challenges for projects/tasks YOPP => Greg to identify the activities Representation of SST (vertical resolution/skin model) and modelling of the diurnal cycle => interfacial fluxes => Matt/Chris Upper ocean boundary layer process (e.g., Representation of momentum across the coupled interface => Gary Representation of surface salinity, buoyancy/stability of upper layer, coupled feedback => Avichal Stokes-Coriolis, Langmuir => Hendrik Extend GOV definition to ocean-wave-sea-ice CP’s –

8. SMRCP-TT discussion SMRCP or CP-TT or Modelling-TT (Complementary functional group or application group) Outcomes Improve prediction of ocean-wave-sea-ice phenomena Extend GOV systems to GOV-CP Initiatives/projects 2 nd Joint workshop Modelling/DA/Obs One CP modelling workshop One CP DA/Obs workshop One WGNE meeting Specific projects or just science exchange YOPP Leadership Volunteers Patrons/Champions NOAA