1. Load Forecast T SRINIVAS MANAGER SRLD C

2. LINKS PREAMBLE GENERATION ANALYSIS GROWTH OF I/C GROWTH OF I/C Vs DEMAND PHYSICAL INTERPRETATION ELECTRIC CONSUMPTION PATTERN OF INDIA INTER-REGIONAL IMPORTS CONCLUSION GENERATION ADDITIONS UPTO MAR-05 LOAD DURATION CURVE 2002-03 DEMAND INDICES RANKING COMPARISION OF ACTUAL Vs FORECASTED DEMAND IEGC PROVISION BACKGROUND LOAD FORECAST APPROACHES MORE LINKS CONSUMPTION PATTERN FREQUENCY PROFILE DAILY LOAD CURVE ECONOMIC INDICATORS GROWTH OF ENERGY Vs DEMAND COMPARISION SPARE

3. MORE LINKS AP KAR KER TN SR HOURWISE FORECAST PEAK LEAN AVERAGE LOAD FACTOR PEAK - LEAN SPARE

4. PREAMBLE Essential part of Power system planning & operation Planner’s mind obsessed with Exponential growth Indian forecast – Rarely hit bull’s eye Important task – Reliability & Economic operation Highly capital intensive Requires axiomatic approach Forecast based on time series Analysis IEGC provision IEGC provision Factors Considered –Peak demand –Lean demand –Energy Demand Energy DemandEnergy Demand –Economic Indicator Economic IndicatorEconomic Indicator –Pattern of consumption Pattern of consumptionPattern of consumption –Diurnal Variation Diurnal VariationDiurnal Variation –Seasonal Dependency Seasonal DependencySeasonal Dependency

5. BACKGROUND Acute shortage in 80’s & 90’s Acute shortage in 80’s & 90’s Commissioning of Inter-regional Link Commissioning of Inter-regional Link (HVDC & B2B) Commissioning of Inter-regional Link Additions of IPP’s Additions of IPP’s Additional 1000MW per year since 2000 Additional 1000MW per year since 2000

6. LOAD FORECAST Reliable demand forecast – yield accurate results. Entire concentration on peak power and energy consumption Little consideration to the load curve YEAR  1998-992000-012001-022002-03 Projected as per 16 th EPS report (2000) 17,97921,29722,78424,212 Actual Achieved 17,18019,42820,06320,428 DEMAND IN MW

7. APPROACHES Extrapolation Curve Expert Economic correlation

8. PHYSICAL INTERPRETATION OF THE CO-EFFICIENT

11. GENERATION ANALYSIS INSTALLED CAPACITY INSTALLED CAPACITYINSTALLED CAPACITYINSTALLED CAPACITY HYDRO – THERMAL MIX 36 : 64 HYDRO – THERMAL MIX 36 : 64 LIKELY ADDITIONS LIKELY ADDITIONSLIKELY ADDITIONSLIKELY ADDITIONS

12. INSTALLED CAPACITY OF SOUTHERN REGION AS ON 01-10-2003 IN MW 28900MW

13. CONCLUSION FORECAST NEEDS TO BE DONE – PAST TRENDS – PRESENT SITUATION – FUTURE REQUIREMENTS DIFFERENT MODELS SHOULD BE APPLIED SOUTHERN STATES TO DEVELOP FORECASTING TECHNIQUE LONG TERM AND SHORT TERM FORECAST ASSUMED SIGNIFICANCE UNDER ABT GENERATION MIX MUST BE PLANNED GIVING DUE REGARD TO LOAD CURVE AN EXERCISE TO BE DONE REGULARLY – ELSE MAY PROVE VERY COSTLY.

14. IEGC PROVISION IEGC order issued by CERC has given due importance to load forecasting for operational purposes. Clause 6.3.3 of IEGC is quoted below: Quote: “ Each State/SLDC shall develop methodologies/mechanisms for daily/weekly/monthly/yearly demand estimation (MW, MVAR and MWH) for operational purposes. The data for the estimation shall also include load shedding, power cuts etc. SLDCs shall also maintain historical database for demand estimation. “ Unquote:

15. COMMISSIONING OF INTER-REGIONAL LINKS HVDC B2B @ Bhadrawati 1997 HVDC B2B @ Bhadrawati 1997 (Between WR & SR) 1,000MW HVDC B2B @ Gazuwaka1999 HVDC B2B @ Gazuwaka1999 (Between ER & SR) 500MW HVDC Talcher – Kolar2002 HVDC Talcher – Kolar2002 (Between ER & SR) 2,000MW

16. INTER REGIONAL IMPORTS (MU)

17. RECENT MAJOR IPP’S ADDITIONS Kayamkulam 350MW 1999 Kayamkulam 350MW 1999 Kondapalli 350MW 2000 Kondapalli 350MW 2000 P.P.Nallur 330MW2001 P.P.Nallur 330MW2001 Tanir Bhavi 235MW 2001 Tanir Bhavi 235MW 2001 BSES 220MW2002 BSES 220MW2002 ST-CMS 250MW2002 ST-CMS 250MW2002 Simhadri1,000MW2002 Simhadri1,000MW2002

18. GROWTH OF ENERGY AND PEAK LOAD OF SR PEAK LOAD ENERGY

19. GROWTH OF INSTALLED CAPACITY IN SR

20. GROWTH OF I/C Vs DEMAND MET % Growth DMD 10.96.57.59.82.38.89.79.67.94.83.31.8 % Growth I/C 2.62.05.46.11.82.44.93.93.85.28.28.9

21. CHANGING CONSUMPTION PATTERN

22. ELECTRIC CONSUMPTION OF INDIA

23. TYPICAL DAILY LOAD CURVE OF SR TYPICAL DAILY LOAD DURATION CURVE OF SR

24. SEASONAL VARIATION GRAPH FOR SR

25. SEASONAL VARIATION GRAPH OF STATES ANDHRA PRADESHKARNATAKA TAMIL NADUKERALA

26. SELECTED ECONOMIC INDICATORS APKARKERTN ALL INDIA Per Capita Electric Consumption, 2000-2001 (kwh) 489390311510350 Per capita value added in Industries, 1999-00 (Rs) 11281668116225171549 Gross factory output per capita, 1999-00 (Rs) 170782777896155238965 % of main workers to total population 2001 38.136.725.938.130.6 Source - Statistical Outline of India, 2002-03, Tata Services limited. Dept. of Economics and Statistics.

27. SELECTED ECONOMIC INDICATORS APKARKERTN ALL INDIA Per Capita Electric Consumption, 2000-2001 (kwh) 489390311510350 Per capita value added in Industries, 1999-00 (Rs) 11281668116225171549 Gross factory output per capita, 1999-00 (Rs) 170782777896155238965 % of main workers to total population 2001 38.136.725.938.130.6 Source - Statistical Outline of India, 2002-03, Tata Services limited. Dept. of Economics and Statistics. RELATIVE RANKING OF THE CONSTITUENTS ON DIFFERENT INDICES BASED ON THE SYNTHESIS OF DATA ATTRIBUTERELATIVE POSITION HIGH ---> LOW PEAK GROWTH RATETNKARAPKEL SATURATION EFFECTSAPKELKARTN LEAN GROWTH RATETNAPKARKEL ENERGY GROWTH RATETNAPKARKEL DIFF. OF PEAK & LEANKARTNAPKEL LOAD FACTORAPTNKELKAR SEASONAL VARIATIONKARAPKELTN

28. EXPECTED GENERATIONS ADDITION UPTO MAR – 05 NAME OF THE STATION HYDRO THERMAL IPP's UTILITY EXPECTED IN 2003-04 EXPECTED IN 2004-05 SRISAILAM LEFT BANKHYDROAP150 MINI HYDELIPPAP30 WIND ENERGYIPPAP55 MINI POWER PLANTSIPPAP30960 INDUSTRIAL WASTE BASEDIPPAP1633 MUNICIPAL WASTE BASEDIPPAP1311 BIOMASSIPPAP114126 BAGASSEIPPAP9540 ALMATTI DAM PHHYDROKAR70165 BELLARY-TPSTHERMALKAR 500 PYKARA ULTIMATEHYDROTN150 BHAVANI STAGE IIHYDROTN30 KUTTALAMTHERMALTN100 ARKAY ENERGY LTD.IPPTN53 ABAN POWER CoIPPTN 103 TALCHER STAGE IITHERMALNTPC5001000 TOTAL16852068

29. FREQUENCY PROFILE OF SR AVG OF MAX AVG OF AVG AVG OF MIN

30. FREQUENCY CURVE FOR 8 th AUGUST 2003 FVI = 0.10 Avg Freq = 50.00Hz

31. LOAD DURATION CURVE OF SR 2002-03

32. RELATIVE RANKING OF THE CONSTITUENTS ON DIFFERENT INDICES BASED ON THE SYNTHESIS OF DATA ATTRIBUTERELATIVE POSITION HIGH ---> LOW PEAK GROWTH RATETNKARAPKEL SATURATION EFFECTSAPKELKARTN LEAN GROWTH RATETNAPKARKEL ENERGY GROWTH RATETNAPKARKEL DIFF. OF PEAK & LEANKARTNAPKEL LOAD FACTORAPTNKELKAR SEASONAL VARIATIONKARAPKELTN

33. COMPARISION OF ACTUAL & FORECASTED DEMAND OF SR MONTH SOUTHERN REGION ACTUAL DEMAND MET(MW) FORECASTED DEMAND (MW) VARIATION (MW) % VARIATION Apr-0319944191937513.77 May-0319379192561230.63 Jun-031859519346-751-4.04 Jul-031875519489-734-3.91 Aug-031871519544-829-4.43 Sep-031970919658510.26 Oct-031950619777-271-1.38

35. SEASONAL VARIATION GRAPH FOR SR

36. LOAD FACTOR OF SR

37. DIFFERENCE OF PEAK-LEAN OF SR

38. DIFFERENCE OF PEAK-LEAN AS % OF PEAK OF SR

40. SEASONAL VARIATION GRAPH FOR AP

41. LOAD FACTOR OF ANDHRA PRADESH

42. DIFFERENCE OF PEAK-LEAN OF AP

43. DIFFERENCE OF PEAK-LEAN AS % OF PEAK OF AP

45. SEASONAL VARIATION GRAPH FOR KAR

46. LOAD FACTOR OF KARNATAKA

47. DIFFERENCE OF PEAK-LEAN OF KARNATAKA

48. DIFFERENCE OF PEAK-LEAN AS % OF PEAK OF KAR

50. SEASONAL VARIATION GRAPH FOR KERALA

51. LOAD FACTOR OF KERALA

52. DIFFERENCE OF PEAK-LEAN OF KERALA

53. DIFFERENCE OF PEAK-LEAN AS % OF PEAK OF KER

55. SEASONAL VARIATION GRAPH FOR TN

56. LOAD FACTOR OF TAMIL NADU

57. DIFFERENCE OF PEAK-LEAN OF TN

58. DIFFERENCE OF PEAK-LEAN AS % OF PEAK OF TN

59. LOAD FACTOR OF

60. DIFFERENCE OF PEAK AND LEAN OF

61. Thank you