1. Uncharted Territory: What’s New for 2012 Redistricting Presented by: David Wasserman Cook Political Report February 2011 Email: dwasserman@cookpolitical.com Web: http://www.cookpolitical.com Twitter: @Redistrictdwasserman@cookpolitical.comhttp://www.cookpolitical.com

2. Five Redistricting Frontiers  New Census Data  New Technology  New Reforms  New GOP Authority  New Democratic Oversight

3. Five Redistricting Frontiers  New Census Data  New Technology  New Reforms  New GOP Authority  New Democratic Oversight

4. Better Know a District (Or: Apportionment in the Age of Colbert)

5. But Wait, There’s New Data  Explosion in Hispanic/Latino Population, especially in TX, CA, FL  Total Population (TPOP) vs. Citizen Voting Age Population (CVAP)  New: American Community Survey (ACS) 1, 3 & 5 Year Census Estimates  Which Data to Use?

6. Texas: Send in the Lawyers…

7.  New Census Data  New Technology  New Reforms  New GOP Authority  New Democratic Oversight Five Redistricting Frontiers

8. There’s (Not Just One) App for That  Proliferation of Do-It-Yourself Redistricting

9. But Will It Change the Outcome?  One Thing’s for Sure: More Public Scrutiny

10.  New Census Data  New Technology  New Reforms  New GOP Authority  New Democratic Oversight Five Redistricting Frontiers

11. California: Props 11 & 20  New 14-Member Citizens’ Commission  5 D, 5 R, 4 Neither  9/14 Required to Pass  What’s it add up to? 53 Very Scared Incumbents

13. Florida: “Fair Districts” Amendments  Districts should not “favor or disfavor” incumbents or political parties and should conform to existing county, city boundaries  Brown (D) & Diaz-Balart (R) odd bedfellows suit  Gov. Scott (R) withdrawal of preclearance request

15.  New Census Data  New Technology  New Reforms  New GOP Authority  New Democratic Oversight Five Redistricting Frontiers

16.  Republicans hold authority to redraw 196 congressional districts, Democrats just 49  GOP not likely to build significantly on their House majority, but will shore up 2010 gains  Best GOP opportunities: NC, GA, PA  Best Dem opportunities: IL, FL, TX Let the Games Begin

17. North Carolina: 7-6 D to 10-3 R?  Four Dems at Risk: Brad Miller, Larry Kissell, Mike McIntyre, Heath Shuler

18. Illinois: 11-8 R to 12-6 D?  Nine GOP at Risk: Bobby Schilling, Aaron Schock, Joe Walsh, Judy Biggert, Randy Hultgren, Adam Kinzinger, Tim Johnson, Bob Dold, Don Manzullo

19.  New Census Data  New Technology  New Reforms  New GOP Authority  New Democratic Oversight Five Redistricting Frontiers

20. First Time a Democratic Justice Dept. Will Oversee Redistricting  1982: Reagan  1992: Bush  2002: Bush  2012: Obama

21. How Aggressive Will the DOJ Be?  And how many states will go another route?

22. The House  Bottom Line: GOP nets 0-5 seats, but leaves fewer targets for Dems