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Uncharted Territory: What’s New for 2012 Redistricting Presented by: David Wasserman Cook Political Report February 2011 Email: dwasserman@cookpolitical.com Web: http://www.cookpolitical.com Twitter: @Redistrictdwasserman@cookpolitical.comhttp://www.cookpolitical.com
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Five Redistricting Frontiers New Census Data New Technology New Reforms New GOP Authority New Democratic Oversight
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Five Redistricting Frontiers New Census Data New Technology New Reforms New GOP Authority New Democratic Oversight
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Better Know a District (Or: Apportionment in the Age of Colbert)
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But Wait, There’s New Data Explosion in Hispanic/Latino Population, especially in TX, CA, FL Total Population (TPOP) vs. Citizen Voting Age Population (CVAP) New: American Community Survey (ACS) 1, 3 & 5 Year Census Estimates Which Data to Use?
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Texas: Send in the Lawyers…
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New Census Data New Technology New Reforms New GOP Authority New Democratic Oversight Five Redistricting Frontiers
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There’s (Not Just One) App for That Proliferation of Do-It-Yourself Redistricting
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But Will It Change the Outcome? One Thing’s for Sure: More Public Scrutiny
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New Census Data New Technology New Reforms New GOP Authority New Democratic Oversight Five Redistricting Frontiers
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California: Props 11 & 20 New 14-Member Citizens’ Commission 5 D, 5 R, 4 Neither 9/14 Required to Pass What’s it add up to? 53 Very Scared Incumbents
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Florida: “Fair Districts” Amendments Districts should not “favor or disfavor” incumbents or political parties and should conform to existing county, city boundaries Brown (D) & Diaz-Balart (R) odd bedfellows suit Gov. Scott (R) withdrawal of preclearance request
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New Census Data New Technology New Reforms New GOP Authority New Democratic Oversight Five Redistricting Frontiers
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Republicans hold authority to redraw 196 congressional districts, Democrats just 49 GOP not likely to build significantly on their House majority, but will shore up 2010 gains Best GOP opportunities: NC, GA, PA Best Dem opportunities: IL, FL, TX Let the Games Begin
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North Carolina: 7-6 D to 10-3 R? Four Dems at Risk: Brad Miller, Larry Kissell, Mike McIntyre, Heath Shuler
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Illinois: 11-8 R to 12-6 D? Nine GOP at Risk: Bobby Schilling, Aaron Schock, Joe Walsh, Judy Biggert, Randy Hultgren, Adam Kinzinger, Tim Johnson, Bob Dold, Don Manzullo
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New Census Data New Technology New Reforms New GOP Authority New Democratic Oversight Five Redistricting Frontiers
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First Time a Democratic Justice Dept. Will Oversee Redistricting 1982: Reagan 1992: Bush 2002: Bush 2012: Obama
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How Aggressive Will the DOJ Be? And how many states will go another route?
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The House Bottom Line: GOP nets 0-5 seats, but leaves fewer targets for Dems
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