1. Baseline Forecasting Workshop © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved. This PowerPoint presentation may not be duplicated, distributed or excerpted without the University’s advance written consent.

2. 3/15/2010 Have a clear strategy What is your central question and indicator (DV)? What are your trend analysis questions and indicators (IVs)? How will you relate the IVs to project the DV? Execute your strategy Gather the data Analyze and Project your IVs Project the expected future for your DV Methods Trend Extrapolation Derivative Extrapolation (e.g. growth rates) Comparative Case Study Analysis (Multivariate) Trend Correlation © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.

3. Building a Dataset © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.

4. Are your Data Graphics “Report Ready” © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.

5.  Begin with definition of a Domain (central question)  What is the main question you are trying to answer?  Forecast change (trends) for those forces/drivers that will shape the future of your domain  How are driving forces trending and how will they influence the answer to your central question?  Introduce uncertainty (discontinuities)  Plausible events, emerging issues and new ideas  Prioritize by likelihood and impact  Define alternative future scenarios 3/15/2010 No Cookie Cutter Approach © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.

6.  How complete is your data set?  How is the validity of your data?  Are your Baselines complete?  Have you included assumptions and logic?  Are your data graphics “report ready”? © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.

7.  Identify Indicators  Central Question (Dependent Variable)  Trend Analysis Questions (Indep Variables)  Build a dataset  Historical Data  Expert Projections  Original Trend Projections  Assess Correlation between IVs and DV  Project and Describe Expected Future © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.

8. Work with your team to frame your forecasting model for your project  Project your Independent Variables?  Project your Dependent Variable?  Define the “Expected Future”?  Quantitative aspects  Qualitative aspects © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.