1. Early Motherhood in the UK: Micro and Macro Determinants Denise Hawkes and Heather Joshi Centre for Longitudinal Research Institute of Education University of London

2. Motivation  Recent figures released by the DfES in the UK suggested that despite government efforts the teenage pregnancy rate is still high in the UK compared to other European Countries  The persistent minority who still enter motherhood as teenagers in the UK are concentrated within the socially disadvantaged

3. Aim of Research  We shall focus on the circumstances leading to this phenomenon rather than its consequences  We shall focus on the possible effects of trends in the labour market have left traces in the differentially delayed patterns of childbearing across social groups

4. Background  Timing of child bearing may be linked to short term economic conditions:  De Cooman et al (1985)  Using aggregate data found a strong relationship between the increase in women’s relative pay in the 1970s and the postponement of first births in England and Wales at that time  Earlier results in Hawkes, Joshi and Ward (2004)  Suggests differences by types of regions in the UK  Dex et al (2005)  Different responses to unemployment rates across countries  Only positive in GB

5. Potential Labour Market Effect 1  Motherhood and Employment as substitutes  For women with little prospects in the labour market, the prospect of making an alternative early transition to an adult role through childbearing has less of an opportunity cost than it would for women with better prospects in prolonged education and on the labour market  Hence we would expect the restraints on early motherhood to be weaker in times and places where employment prospects were relatively poor.  For these women high unemployment may be associated with an earlier transition to motherhood.

6. Potential Labour Market Effect 2  Motherhood and Employment as complements  Women who are expecting to combine motherhood and employment.  Maternity leave and childcare facilities were expected to make employment after motherhood a viable option, the motivation to delay a first birth, at least after a point, is diminished  When unemployment is high, these women might plan to wait until they were better established in a job, and when jobs seem secure (for themselves or their partner) before entering motherhood.

7. Millennium Cohort Study  4 th of the National Cohort Studies in the UK  18,553 families interviewed when the cohort members were 9 months old  However it is unique as  includes Northern Ireland for the first time  Over samples in areas of high ethnic minority populations and high child poverty  Contains a year of births rather than a week (September 2000-January 2002)

8. MCS 2 and beyond  Currently data is only available for the first sweep when the cohort member was nine months old  Data for the second sweep (when the cohort member was 3 years old) is due soon  Survey at 5 years old (MCS3) due to go into the field later this year  Plans for a survey at 7 years old (MCS4) are developing

9. Unemployment Data  This is taken from the ONS time series data bank  Both annual unemployment rates and regional unemployment rates used  At the moment working with local authority unemployment rates – not ready to present yet  These unemployment rates are ILO unemployment and calculated by the ONS using data from the Labour Force Survey

10. Model  Extending Hawkes, Joshi and Ward (2004)  where we shall add measures of national unemployment rate and regional unemployment rate to the antecedent variables already considered

11. Antecedent Variables Considered  Family break up in the previous generation  Experiencing local authority care at some point in childhood  Leaving at the end of compulsory schooling  Ethnicity  For First Births Only  Area Characteristics

12. Distribution of Age at Motherhood

13. Percentage Surprised by Pregnancy

14. Estimation Strategy  Firstly consider the results from a series of ordered probits  Between Individual Analysis  Dependent variable age at motherhood (grouped)  For All Births  For First Births only  Secondly briefly point to results from event history analysis  Within Individual Analysis  Dependent variable enter motherhood between 16 and 25  WORK IN PROGRESS

15. Ordered Probit: All Births  Model 1 – Antecedent Variables Only  Model 2 – Model 1 + Lagged National Unemployment Rate  Model 3 – Model 2 + Interaction between Lagged National Unemployment Rate and Leaving School at the Minimum School Leaving Age

16. Antecedent Variables – age at motherhood – ordered probit All Births (1)(2)(3) Parents separated/divorced before first birth -0.375-0.399 (0.022)*** In care at some point in childhood -0.722-0.675 (0.090)***(0.091)*** Left school at compulsory school leaving age (S) -0.740-0.693-0.715 (0.028)***(0.027)***(0.092)***

17. Ethnicity – age at motherhood – ordered probit Mixed-0.288-0.277-0.276 (0.096)***(0.095)***(0.094)*** Indian-0.279-0.257-0.256 (0.064)***(0.062)*** Pakistani-0.602-0.582 (0.047)***(0.048)*** Bangladeshi-0.926-0.883 (0.052)***(0.053)*** Black Caribbean-0.181-0.117 (0.111)(0.107) Black African-0.167-0.079 (0.080)**(0.087)(0.086) Other Ethnic Group-0.009-0.014 (0.063)(0.064)

18. National Unemployment – age at motherhood – ordered probit All Births (1)(2)(3) Left school at compulsory school leaving age (S) -0.740-0.693-0.715 (0.028)***(0.027)***(0.092)*** Lagged National Unemployment (U) -0.132-0.134 (0.006)***(0.008)*** Interact U*S0.003 (0.011) Observations17831 F162.28188.00179.22

19. Ordered Probit: First Births Only  Model 5 – Antecedent Variables Only  Model 6 – Model 5 + Area Characteristics  Model 7 – Model 5 + Regional Unemployment Rate  Model 8 – Model 6 + Regional Unemployment Rate

20. Ordered Probit – age at motherhood – First Births Only First Births Only (5)(6)(7)(8) Parents separated/divorced before first birth -0.436-0.413-0.438-0.411 (0.032)***(0.033)*** In care at some point in childhood-0.482-0.413-0.484-0.405 (0.122)***(0.118)***(0.122)***(0.117)*** Left school at compulsory school leaving age (S) -0.610-0.558-0.609-0.559 (0.038)*** (0.037)***

21. Ethnicity – age at motherhood – ordered probit - First Births Only Mixed-0.318-0.276-0.321-0.274 (0.143)**(0.141)**(0.143)**(0.140)* Indian-0.246-0.151-0.239-0.169 (0.086)***(0.083)*(0.088)***(0.082)** Pakistani-0.694-0.516-0.691-0.519 (0.072)***(0.076)***(0.072)***(0.074)*** Bangladeshi-0.860-0.684-0.846-0.713 (0.066)***(0.091)***(0.069)***(0.096)*** Black Caribbean-0.0100.1310.0040.102 (0.162)(0.160)(0.164)(0.163) Black African0.0030.1990.0180.167 (0.128)(0.137)(0.130)(0.140) Other Ethnic Group0.0730.1650.0840.139 (0.102)(0.096)*(0.102)(0.099)

22. Area type – age at motherhood – ordered probit - First Births Only First Births Only (6)(8) Wales-0.203-0.235 (0.058)***(0.062)*** Scotland-0.057-0.117 (0.058)(0.070)* Northern Ireland-0.236-0.283 (0.053)***(0.061)*** Disadvantaged Area-0.423-0.442 (0.052)*** Ethnic Area-0.431-0.457 (0.084)***

23. Regional Unemployment age at motherhood – ordered probit - First Births Only First Births Only (5)(6)(7)(8) Lagged Regional Unemployment -1.2972.949 (1.737)(1.854) Observations7563 F94.6873.0387.3169.85

24. Event History Analysis (Work in Progress)  Model 1 – Antecedent Variables Only  Model 2 – Model 1 + Lagged National Unemployment Rate  Model 3 – Model 2 + Calendar Year Dummies  Model 4 – Model 3 + Interaction between Lagged National Unemployment Rate and Leaving School at the Minimum School Leaving Age

25. Event History Analysis - Results  Similarly to the ordered probit results an increase in the hazard of early motherhood is associated with  Family break up in the previous generation  Experiencing local authority care at some point in childhood  Important ethnic differences are repeated  Being Pakistani or Bangladeshi as before  In addition being Black Caribbean

26. Hazard of Entering Motherhood Between 16-25 Selected Terms Fixed Education (1)(2)(3)(4) Left school at the minimum school leaving age (E) 0.6360.6320.618-1.264 (0.030)**(0.029)**(0.028)**(0.083)** Lagged National Unemployment (U) -0.350-0.143-0.295 (0.009)** (0.013)** Interaction E*U0.246 (0.012)**

27. Interpretation of Event History Model 4  Please treat as experimental  Sign on the national unemployment rate has changed to negative, but close to zero for those who left school at the minimum age in Model 4.  Negative sign for unemployment may be spurious because sample selected on those who had births (not necessarily the first or at ages under 25 ) in 2001  In Model 4, those who left school at minimum age more likely to have a first birth if unemployment at least 5% ( average =9%)

28. Conclusion 1  Cross Sectional evidence finds earlier entry to motherhood is associated with:  family disruption  in care  Ethnicity  Leaving at the minimum school leaving age (S)  lagged national unemployment rate (U)  area characteristics  Interaction between U & S suggests two potential groups of mothers (insignificant)  Preliminary results from Event History Analysis suggests  Some evidence of differential responses in the age of motherhood to national unemployment (interaction term)  To be investigated further

29. Conclusion 2  Some evidence to suggest therefore that  Less educated women enter motherhood earlier in response to unemployment  More educated women delay motherhood even more in response to unemployment  Therefore consistent with employment and motherhood as both substitutes and complements

30. Further Research  Include additional background variables from the next sweep of the MCS  Also possible to match in more regional data, for example rural/urban  Use of Local Authority level unemployment rates  Need to consider selection effects more seriously for event history  Look for interactions in age of motherhood regressions