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Animation Channel Strategic Evaluation
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1 I.Executive Summary II.Animation Market Overview III.Potential Financials Agenda
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2 I. Executive Summary
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3 Executive Summary Strategy Fox Animation Channel would serve core 18-34 audience base and allow Fox to further participate in general growth of adult animation over the past decade Keeping rights in-house would allow Fox to leverage assets across more platforms Programming Between 2010 & 2012, nearly 1000 episodes of Fox animated shows become available The Simpsons (400 episodes), Family Guy (158), American Dad (158), King of the Hill (222), Futurama (88) Shows are blue-chip assets that continue to maintain high value despite ratings declines In order to determine highest and best use of programming, license fees held at market rate for new channel business plan analysis Preliminary Thoughts Due to high cost of programming and limited distribution/lower fees inherent in launch, new animation channel not profitable Based on Affiliate and Ad Sales estimates, no programming scenario results in positive DCF Would be difficult for any one channel to purchase all of Fox’s animated programming rights and create viable business plan due to expense of programming Break-even scenario assumes much higher affiliate fees, ad sales and/or sub fees Increasing subs (+85% to 95M), aggressive ad sales (+75% to $74M) or increased affiliate fees (over 2X to $0.24) for a full channel to reach profitability Even conservative case with only 1/3 Fox content not profitable (DCF of -$346M) Potential opportunity exists for Fox to launch a cartoon-based cable network in 2011 to further exploit its slate of popular adult animated shows
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4 Fox Adult Animation Availability Fox’s available adult animation could nearly fill the entire channel 2010201120122013 May 2010 158 new episodes $700K/deal 2 $32M/year Sept 2010 +103 new episodes =261 total episodes $400K/deal 2 $8M/year Jan 2011 +400 new episodes =661 total episodes $1M/deal 2 $80M/year Oct 2011 +222 new episodes =883 total episodes $300K/deal 2 $13M/year Jan 2013 +88 new episodes =971 total episodes $300K/deal 2 $5M/year 1) Each episode is a half-hour in length, and assumes 12x repeat factor on 24hr. network w/ 4 hours paid programming 2) License fee estimates contain factor of ±25% and assume deal lifespan of five years 3) Does not account for potential barter revenues that could be generated on programs or monetization of digital rights When Available # Episodes 1 Potential Share of Schedule 2 Est. Lic. Fee Per Ep. Total Est. Lic. Fee
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5 Animation Channel – Strategic Options Partial Lineup (Mix of Fox & Acquired Programming) Identity Strong Fox content but with distinctive identity 4-5 hr. block on FX featuring Fox animated properties Full Lineup (All Fox Animated Content Available) “Adult Swim” Model (Block on FX) Destination for high-quality familiar Fox animated shows Animation Channel Programming Options DCF Valuation ($712M) ($346M) 25M/51M $0.10/$0.15 $30M/$130M $110M/$141M ($93M)/($33M) 25M/51M $0.07/$0.12 $22M/$110M $71M/$92M ($62M)/($4M) Content Mix: Yr1/Yr10 Assump. - Carriage - Affiliate Fees Yr1/Yr10 Results - Revenue - Programming Budget - OBDA 1) Assumes 12x repeat factor on 24hr. network w/ 4 hours paid programming FX Programming and Affiliate Sales not currently able to determine if animation block will be attractive option in 2011 Not possible to assess incremental value of animation block to FX
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6 Risk Factors Adult animation market may already be crowded and competitive There are two cable network blocks and numerous adult cartoons in the space Recent high-profile failures include Spike TV’s adult animation block and NBC/DreamWorks collaboration Father of the Pride Due to high cost of programming, limited distribution and low fees inherent in new channel, concept may never achieve profitability Other opportunity costs may not be quantified in this analysis Use of distribution leverage in 2011 to launch new channel vs. other potential channels Ratings on Fox Animation channel may not be sufficient to provide boost for Fox barter Although established and historically successful, Fox programming may not provide sufficient base for launch of new channel Difficulty in generating/obtaining additional content to meet programming needs Long lead times necessary to produce additional content Ramping up internal production may be high-risk proposition Negotiations to source external content from other studios could be capital-intensive
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II. Animation Market Overview
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8 Adult Animation Cable Players Network/ BlockLaunchedTop Show(s)Days/ Time Target Demo Network Subs Avg. Households Primary 10/92 Jetsons Scooby-Doo Tom & Jerry MTWThFSSu 24/7 P 2+90.3M969K 9/01 Family Guy Futurama MTWThSSu 10:00PM- 6:00AM P 18-3490.3M884K 6/03 (canceled 8/03) Ren & Stimpy Gary the Rat Stripperella Th 10:00 PM- 11:30PM M 18-3491.7M554K Secondary 8/97South Park MTWThF 9:30PM- 10:00PM P 18-3488.9M854K 11/03King of the Hill MTWThF 6:00PM- 7:00PM P 18-3487.5M501K 2/03 (canceled 3/06) Anime Unleashed (early) Anime Unleashed (late) F 12:00AM- 1:00AM M 18-3423M25K Several adult-oriented animation blocks exist in an increasingly competitive market (G4) (Cartoon Network)
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9 Ratings - Competitors Although ratings for top animation properties are not growing, they have sustained high rating levels 2005 Rating 2005 HH (M) Comedy Central 1.72%1.5M Cartoon Network 1.17%1.0 Adult Swim1.09%1.0 1 G40.05%0.0 1 1) Data segmented from 2003 for Adult Swim and from 2005 for G4: Anime Unleashed block
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10 Affiliate Fees - Competitors Existing networks offering adult animation generate affiliate fees between $0.10 to $0.18 per sub 2005 Rate CAGR% (’00-’05) Nickelodeon$0.396% Spike$0.185% Cartoon$0.1513% Comedy Central$0.117% G4$0.1026% 1 1) G4 launched in 2002, CAGR is from 2002 – 20005
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11 Overview Overview Key Facts Launched in October 1992 Draws on large library of over 14,000 series/shorts Airs 18 original prime-time half-hour series Adult Swim programming block established 9/01 Airs animation geared primarily towards adults Split from Cartoon Network as separate channel for ratings purposes on 3/28/05 Time Warner’s 24-hour animated cable network would be Fox Animation Channel’s primary competitor 1) Source: Kagan Research
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12 Programming Grid Programming Grid Cartoon Network has very little blue-chip acquired programming – rest of schedule is predominantly low-cost acquisitions and original programming
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13 Core Animation Slate Ratings Despite its blue-chip shows, Fox animated programs have declined in popularity and may not have sufficient viewership to serve as base for a new channel Rating 1 CAGR% (since launch) Family Guy 2 5.7%(5%) The Simpsons5.0%(6%) American Dad3.7%(5%) King of the Hill3.0%(13%) Adult 13-34 Ratings for Fox Sunday Animated Programs 1) Adult 13-34 Ratings 2) Family Guy on hiatus during 2003-2004
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14 Proposed network concept would compete directly with Cartoon Network’s Adult Swim Target Audience Platform General Ent. Cable Broadcast Cartoon- Based Cable Youth Adult 1) Circle size represents relative measurement of ratings 2) Ratings are for Adults 18-34 unless otherwise indicated Competitive Landscape
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III. Potential Financials
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16 Financial Driver Assumptions
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17 Summary P&L – Full Lineup An animation channel with all Fox’s content would lose $33M in Year 10 (2020)
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18 Summary P&L – Partial Lineup Even an animation channel with a mix of Fox content and lower-cost programming would lose $4M in 2010
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19 Preliminary DCF Valuation Comparison Value of business significantly impacted by shifts in affiliate and programming 1) Assumes limited Fox content, 3% terminal value growth rate and 9.4% discount rate 2) Highlighted portions are Affiliate Sales estimates
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20 Break-even Case Scenarios Aggressive assumptions are necessary for an animation channel to break even by Year 10 Year 10 ($141M Programming Budget Yr.10)($92M Programming Budget Yr.10)
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