1. Stuart Combes Assistant Director (Scientific Risk Management), UK MOD © British Crown Copyright 2005/MOD Identifying, pre-empting and resolving scientific risks to the environment from military activities

2. The problem Proliferating Health, Safety and Environment issues and scares (Sonars and whales, Depleted Uranium, Explosive residues etc). –True risks to life, limb, environment and reputation. –Perceived risks affecting reputation and constraining ability to operate.

3. Definition Scientific risks are non-military risks to MOD where science has a significant role to play in identifying or addressing the problem. They are likely to be risks concerned with health, safety, the environment or MOD's reputation. Just one component of MOD’s response to health, safety and environment issues.

4. From ‘Scientific Blunders’ by Robert Youngson “After I invented the ophthalmoscope a distinguished surgical colleague told me that he would never use it as it would be too dangerous to admit light into the diseased eye.” –Hermann von Helmholtz (1821-94)

5. Team remit Developing and promulgating standards and encouraging best practice. Reporting significant scientific risks to the Defence Audit Committee Identifying and tracking scientific risks Assisting with an efficient response to real or potential risks.

6. Examples Concorde. The ‘Manhattan atmosphere.’

7. Four Categories Control of legacies. proper scientific advice on dumped munitions, UXO etc Undesirable effects. Collateral : energy and material emissions; transfers of disease etc Assumption change. changing recruiting base; new regulations etc. Rooting policy in science. policies vulnerable to challenge.

8. Horizon Scanning “The [systematic] examination of potential threats, opportunities and likely future developments which are at the margins of current thinking and planning. Horizon scanning may explore novel and unexpected issues, as well as persistent problems and trends. Overall, horizon scanning is intended to improve the robustness of [our] policies and evidence base.” Definition courtesy of Defra.

9. Examples : Control of Legacies  HMS Royal Oak (Oil, explosives)  Beaufort’s Dyke (Explosives, chemical weapons)  Weapon Residues (Contamination).

10. Examples : Collateral effects  Sonar 2087  Depleted Uranium  Vaccinations  Nanotechnology

11. Examples : Assumption change  The age of the Earth

12. Examples : Support to Policy  Wind farms

13. Best Practice Use of a wide range of impartial advice, openly published and reviewed. UK Office of Science and Technology ‘Guidelines 2000’. Questioning. Horizon scanning. Precaution.

14. The Precautionary Principle No universal definition. Rio : ‘Where there are threats of serious or irreversible damage, lack of full scientific certainty shall not be used as a reason for postponing cost effective measures’. Decisions should ‘seek to avoid serious damage if things go wrong.’ Create an impetus to take a decision despite uncertainty (avoid ‘paralysis by analysis’)

15. Specific Activities (Identify, pre-empt and resolve) All research activities required to review possible collateral effects. ‘Prompt’ list to trigger ideas. Proactive review of specific legacies. Monitoring of key issues (e.g. nanotechnology) Quantify expected effects.

16. Way forward A culture that considers scientific risk. Better Defence reputation (health & science) Proactive search for possible threats A network of ‘detectors’. Openness where possible. A scoring system for risks. Precaution. Use of independent advice.