1. CAPRI EC4MACS Kick Off meeting, Laxenburg, 06-07..03.07 Peter Witzke, EuroCARE The role of EuroCARE and Bonn University in EC4MACS The role of EuroCARE and Bonn University in EC4MACS Peter Witzke, EuroCARE Bonn

2. CAPRI EC4MACS Kick Off meeting, Laxenburg, 06-07..03.07 Peter Witzke, EuroCARE CAPRI-Training session, 6. September 2004 2 Outline Short presentation of Bonn University and EuroCARE Bonn The Agricultural sector model CAPRI Application of CAPRI in Task 7 Baseline projection (EuroCARE) Policy scenarios(Bonn University)

3. CAPRI EC4MACS Kick Off meeting, Laxenburg, 06-07..03.07 Peter Witzke, EuroCARE CAPRI-Training session, 6. September 2004 3 Who is the Bonn University team Institute for Food and Resource Economics: Involved persons in project: Thomas Heckelei Wolfgang Britz Marcel Adenäuer Specializing on policy impact analysis based on quantitative models Long-standing relations to DG-AGRI Co-ordinates the activities around the CAPRI modeling systems

4. CAPRI EC4MACS Kick Off meeting, Laxenburg, 06-07..03.07 Peter Witzke, EuroCARE CAPRI-Training session, 6. September 2004 4 Who is the EuroCARE Bonn team EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR AGRICULTURAL, REGIONAL AND ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY RESEARCH Involeved persons in project: Heinz Peter Witzke Andrea Zintl Development and application of information systems and simulation models for the agricultural sector, agricultural environment and rural regions Support for national and international institutions on agricultural, environmetal and regional policy issues

5. CAPRI EC4MACS Kick Off meeting, Laxenburg, 06-07..03.07 Peter Witzke, EuroCARE CAPRI-Training session, 6. September 2004 5 The CAPRI Model Common Agricultural Policy Regionalised Impact Model, combination of: Regionalized/farm type supply models for EU27 and a global, spatial market model for main agricultural products Developed and funded mainly by DG-RSRCH funds Implemented and applied by DG-AGRI

6. CAPRI EC4MACS Kick Off meeting, Laxenburg, 06-07..03.07 Peter Witzke, EuroCARE CAPRI-Training session, 6. September 2004 6 The CAPRI Model - overview Market Module Spatial Multi-Commodity Model 18 regional aggregates plus all EU MS States Young Animal Market Module Linked MS Programming Models Supply Module 250 Regional Programming Models Policy Modules CAP Premiums (base areas,...) Aggregated Supply & Feed demand Aggregation Herds Acreages Prices Premiums Exploitation Env. Indicators Welfare analysis FEOGA budget Supply, demand, prices, etc

7. CAPRI EC4MACS Kick Off meeting, Laxenburg, 06-07..03.07 Peter Witzke, EuroCARE CAPRI-Training session, 6. September 2004 7 The role of CAPRI in EC4MACS TASK 7 Agricultural scenarios Purpose: quantification of agricultural projections and evaluation of a wide range of measures to reduce agricultural emissions Reflecting: Changes in agricultural policies and potential requirements to control environmental impacts. Output: Quantitative input for the integrated GAINS analysis. In particular, work will address the following objectives: 7.1: Baseline projection (EuroCARE) 7.2: Policy scenarios(Bonn University)

8. CAPRI EC4MACS Kick Off meeting, Laxenburg, 06-07..03.07 Peter Witzke, EuroCARE CAPRI-Training session, 6. September 2004 8 Baseline Projection (1) Agricultural projections require a continuous update of the database and baseline of the CAPRI modeling system to reflect ongoing changes in agricultural policies. Changes in the database will result both from revisions of current data, and partly from a further disaggregation which may be triggered by further EU enlargement (Balkan, Turkey). The baseline needs to be adapted to the current status of CAP reforms, outcome of WTO negotiations and possible changes in long-term trends.

9. CAPRI EC4MACS Kick Off meeting, Laxenburg, 06-07..03.07 Peter Witzke, EuroCARE CAPRI-Training session, 6. September 2004 9 Baseline Projection (2) Main output: A yearly revised database and baseline covering agricultural activities, inputs and outputs in deep disaggregation. Revisions in methodology, application rules and data sources will be documented. Scenario assumptions and projections will be presented to stakeholders for review. For success of this basic activity it is assumed that statistical agencies will continue to supply the required raw data in a format comparable to past data. Major revisions of key input data might require adaptations which are a risk for timely completion.

10. CAPRI EC4MACS Kick Off meeting, Laxenburg, 06-07..03.07 Peter Witzke, EuroCARE CAPRI-Training session, 6. September 2004 10 Policy scenarios (1) Pupose: Development and comparison of counterfactual scenarios to the baseline. The scenarios may cover alternative future developments of agricultural policies such as changes in the CAP, the WTO or bi-lateral trade agreements. Sensitivity analysis will be performed regarding major assumptions (e.g. exchange rates or technical progress), including emissions of NH3, NOx, N2O, CH4 and N, P, K surpluses, which serve as indicators for environmental impacts of changes in policies or exogenous assumptions.

11. CAPRI EC4MACS Kick Off meeting, Laxenburg, 06-07..03.07 Peter Witzke, EuroCARE CAPRI-Training session, 6. September 2004 11 Policy scenarios (2) Main output: Impacts of certain policies on environmental issues major CAPRI results (yields, hectares and herds, output quantities, economic indicators at regional level; producer and consumer prices at Member state level, trade flows, import prices, applied tariffs and the FEOGA budget at EU level). A consistent welfare analysis at Member State level is further given.

12. CAPRI EC4MACS Kick Off meeting, Laxenburg, 06-07..03.07 Peter Witzke, EuroCARE CAPRI-Training session, 6. September 2004 12 Policy scenarios (3) Use of results: Assessments with respect to uncertainty on crucial variables and model assumptions. If required, alternative specifications for particular issues will be included. The relevant results of the policy scenarios (e.g., herd sizes, agricultural land use) will be transferred to RAINS to be integrated into the GAINS assessment. T