1. Energy Policy Oil Peak Gary Flomenhoft

2. The “OIL PEAK”

3. Source: Smil (1991)

4. 0 25 50 75 100 180018251850187519001925195019752000 Composition of U.S. Energy Use wood animal feed coal oil gas electricity Percent of total energy use

6. Energy Rate of Return

8. Fuel Domesticated Animals Labor Work Done in the U.S. Economy, 1850-1970

9. The Epoch of Fossil Fuel Exploitation (after Hubbert, 1969) 0 -5 -4-3 -2 +1 +2+3 +4 +5 Iron in Middle East Stonehenge Built Parthenon completed Pyramids constructed Mayan culture Inquisition Black Death Magellan's Circumnavigation Steam Engine 100 200 300 Trillion kwh per year

10. Hubbert Oil Cycle

11. US Oil Extraction

13. World Oil Extraction

14. Results- Various Countries Algeria (EUR=26.09 BBO) Mexico (EUR=65.0 BBO) Norway (EUR=35.2 BBO) Romania (EUR=7.3 BBO)

15. World Oil Extraction

20. Various National Patterns USA – E.g.. of a net consumer Venezuela – E.g. of a net producer High reserves (~ 3000 BBO) and low economic growth scenario

21. Various National Patterns Mexico– E.g.. of a country that switches over from net producer to net consumer in the future. U.A.E. – E.g. of a swing producer. High reserves (~ 3000 BBO) and low economic growth scenario

22. Forecasting Oil Production Source : US DOE (EIA), website. U = ~ 3000 (mean estimate of the USGS 2000). Peak Production = 2037

23. World Oil Extraction

25. World Oil Consumption

26. World Oil Flows

27. Julian Simon view: technological developments and human ingenuity will yield more resourcesJulian Simon view: technological developments and human ingenuity will yield more resources –“Drowning in oil” The Economist, March 6 th - 12 th 1999, pp. 23-25 Colin Campbell, et al. use Hubbert curves to predict the end of oilColin Campbell, et al. use Hubbert curves to predict the end of oil –“The End of Cheap Oil” Scientific American, March 1998, pp. 78-83 (Campbell and Laherrere) Two Views S. Gürcan Gülen, Ph.D.

28. Real Price of Oil since 1869

30. Oil Reserve/Production ratio

31. Oil Reserves

32. “Proven” oil reserves

33. Natural Gas Reserves

35. Coal Reserves

37. Hummer H1 Sticker price $106,185 Current law Equipment deduction $25,000 Total tax deduction* $60,722 Bush economic plan Equipment deduction $75,000 Total tax deduction* $88,722 * Includes bonus tax write-off enacted by Congress in March 2002 and a deduction for normal depreciation. Sources: Detroit News research, IRS, Taxpayers for Common Sense Gas Hog Tax Credit

38. Cars per Thousand People Source: JustAuto.com “Today there are 670 million vehicles in the world. By 2050 that number is expected to increase to 4.5 billion or maybe more.” Thomas Gross, US DOE

40. China Energy use 1997

42. Source: EPA

43. American success Great natural resources Energy subsidies: slaves then fossil fuels Global trade

46. Other Extinct cultures Rapa Nui- (Easter Island) Mangaia Mangereva Pitcairn Henderson Exception: Tikopia