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TREMOVE ETISPLUS workshop Griet De Ceuster. 24/06/2010ETISPLUS2 TRANSPORT DEMAND MODULE VEHICLE STOCK MODULE EMISSIONS MODULE TRANSPORT COST/KM (prices,

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Presentation on theme: "TREMOVE ETISPLUS workshop Griet De Ceuster. 24/06/2010ETISPLUS2 TRANSPORT DEMAND MODULE VEHICLE STOCK MODULE EMISSIONS MODULE TRANSPORT COST/KM (prices,"— Presentation transcript:

1 TREMOVE ETISPLUS workshop Griet De Ceuster

2 24/06/2010ETISPLUS2 TRANSPORT DEMAND MODULE VEHICLE STOCK MODULE EMISSIONS MODULE TRANSPORT COST/KM (prices, taxes, subsidies) source: SCENES, COWI + others CONGESTION FUNCTIONS (SPEED-FLOW) MOHRING FUNCTIONS (PUBLIC TRANSPORT) SUBSTITUTION ELASTICITIES source: general literature CALIBRATED on SCENES and TIF PKM TKM detailed VKM EMISSIONS FUNCTIONS sources: ROAD: draft COPERT IV with adapted fuel cons. RAIL, AIR: TRENDS IWW: preliminary ARTEMIS FUEL & ENERGY CONSUMPTION EMISSIONS 1995 = SCENES = TIF 2000 = TIF (+TRENDS, EUROSTAT) 2020 = SCENES (only for baseline 2030 = based on PRIMES growth rate baseline) OCCUPANCY RATES LOAD FACTORS source: SCENES + others VKM VKM increase per year STOCK IN 1995 source: TRENDS + UIC SCRAPPAGE FUNCTIONS source: TRENDS + other SALES FUNCTIONS source: sales in recent years CAILBRATED on COWI 99-00 + TRENDS- VEHICLE STOCK 1995 = TRENDS VKM detailed shares SPEED 2000 ~ PRIMES / RAINS LIFE CYCLE EMISSIONS MODULE LIFE CYCLE EMISSIONS total transport EXPENSES, CS, PS, GOVERN. REVENUE WELFARE MODULE EXTERNAL COST FACTORS source: CAFE CBA, GRACE WELFARE differences WTT EMISSION FACTORS sources: PRIMES, RAINS, ECOINVENT 1995-2005 ~ actual sales RAIL ROAD IWW AIR module input data & functions output data consistency check PKM & TKM :

3 24/06/2010ETISPLUS3 TREMOVE 1 for DG ENV … - 1999 Developed by : KUL, DRI Application in Auto-Oil II programme –Cost-effectiveness analysis of : Vehicle emission standards Fuel quality standards Non-technical measures –Public transport subsidies, scrappage, … Fuel taxes

4 24/06/2010ETISPLUS4 TREMOVE 2.0–2.52 for DG ENV 2002 - 2007 Developed by : TML, KUL et al. Cost-effectiveness analysis of : EURO 5 standards Car CO2 policy (2012, 2015 objectives) Maritime policies (aftertreatment, …) Plane taxes Mid-term review White Paper DG TREN

5 24/06/2010ETISPLUS5 TREMOVE 2.7 : GRACE Released November 2007 Development by TML For : EC FP6 GRACE (coordinator ITS, Leeds) Cost-effectiveness analysis of :  Km-charging policies (road and other modes) Can be executed without software licenses

6 24/06/2010ETISPLUS6 TREMOVE 3.0 : REFIT EC FP6 REFIT (coordinator : TNO) Preliminary technical link between TREMOVE and TRANSTOOLS –TransTools is the new network-based forecasting model of the European Commission, developed by TNO, TRT, … –Development by TML and TRT TML also developed the EDIP model

7 24/06/2010ETISPLUS7 TREMOVE 3.1 for JRC For JRC-IPTS TML, Okö-Institut and Fraunhofer ISI New car ‘materials’ module –Calculating material flows related to car and replacements parts –Linked by JRC to IMPROcar LCA model 4 Policy simulations : –Promoting smaller & lighter cars –Accelerated scrappage & replacement

8 24/06/2010ETISPLUS8 TREMOVE 3.2 : iTREN EC FP6 iTREN-2030 (coordinator : ISI) Developing a common 2030 forecast with : –TRANSTOOLS –POLES : Energy / technology model (JRC- IPTS,TRT) –ASTRA : Economy / transport model (Fraunhofer ISI) Automated data exchange with TRANS- TOOLS Extension with new car technologies –Hydrogen –Electric

9 24/06/2010ETISPLUS9 TREMOVE 3.3 for ENV Taxes and prices –VAT rates & evolution –National taxation –Fuel prices: IEA extract Demand baseline: from iTREN Rail stock from EX-TREMIS Road stock from FLEETS BY set to 2005 Maritime model –Updated with EX-TREMIS values Issue in demand (buses) originating from iTREN Validation Calibration Database clean-up Alternative baseline: data is set Sensitivity

10 24/06/2010ETISPLUS10 TREMOVE 3.4 for JRC Baseline update Purpose: DG MOVE White Paper

11 GLADYSTE ETISPLUS workshop Griet De Ceuster

12 24/06/2010ETISPLUS12 Gladyste The new TREMOVE World System dynamics –Demand module independent from other sources –Demand can also be exogenous Vensim Ready by end of 2010

13 24/06/2010ETISPLUS13 Features Copy of TREMOVE Additional demand module Additional 24 world regions (+33 European zones) 4 modules: Demand, Fleet, Energy Use / Emissions, and Welfare

14 24/06/2010ETISPLUS14 Linkages with other models Copy of TREMOVE Demand module partly based on ASTRA (not identical) Link with POLES developed –Export to Poles Link with TRANS-TOOLS will be developed –Overrule Gladyste demand and replace by Trans-Tools demand

15 24/06/2010ETISPLUS15

16 24/06/2010ETISPLUS16 Screenshot FLEET module

17 Thank you!

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