1. NWS SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY 11/3/20151 Leveraging GOES Capabilities to Maximize Response to User Needs Don Berchoff, Director Office of Science & Technology November 3, 2009 GOES Users Conference SIXTH GOES USERS’ CONFERENCE Madison WI

2. NWS SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY 11/3/20152 Stroll Down Memory Lane  GOES 1 (1975): Imagery; cloud drift derived winds and temperatures; space environmental monitor  GOES 4 (1980): Atmospheric sounder added (temperature and moisture), but can’t image and sound simultaneously  GOES 7 (1987): Distress signals (testing)  GOES 8 (1994): Flexible scanning, high resolution images and simultaneous imaging and sounding  GOES 12 (2001): Solar X-Ray Imager  GOES 1 (1975): Imagery; cloud drift derived winds and temperatures; space environmental monitor  GOES 4 (1980): Atmospheric sounder added (temperature and moisture), but can’t image and sound simultaneously  GOES 7 (1987): Distress signals (testing)  GOES 8 (1994): Flexible scanning, high resolution images and simultaneous imaging and sounding  GOES 12 (2001): Solar X-Ray Imager

3. NWS SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY 11/3/20153 Can’t Imagine Life Without Satellite Data Sustained Real-time Observations of the Atmosphere, Oceans, Land and Sun vital to NOAA Operations and Research

4. NWS SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY 11/3/20154 Lifeblood of Operators and Researchers  Detect, characterize, warn, track  Hurricanes  Severe or possibly tornadic storms  Flash flood producing weather systems  Analysis and forecasting  Surface temperatures (sea and land), winds, atmospheric stability, soundings, air quality, hazards  Numerical models: Data assimilation...radiances, soundings  Ocean environment monitoring  Climate monitoring/continuity  Environmental data collection – buoys, rain gauges, river levels, ecosystem monitoring

5. NWS SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY 11/3/20155 What Excites Me About GOES-R  Possibilities for: ….greater high impact event warning lead times to reduce loss of life and property ….storm-scale modeling and forecasts critical to enhancing people’s lives and Nation’s economy ….improved solar/space monitoring and forecasts to mitigate impacts to vital national infrastructure assets  Possibilities for: ….greater high impact event warning lead times to reduce loss of life and property ….storm-scale modeling and forecasts critical to enhancing people’s lives and Nation’s economy ….improved solar/space monitoring and forecasts to mitigate impacts to vital national infrastructure assets

6. NWS SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY 11/3/20156 But We Have Challenges to fully realize possibilities  Huge data explosion  Rapid data assimilation requirements (e.g., NextGen)—people, models  Demands on data management architecture  Data access on-demand within resource constraints  Huge data explosion  Rapid data assimilation requirements (e.g., NextGen)—people, models  Demands on data management architecture  Data access on-demand within resource constraints

7. NWS SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY 11/3/20157 NWS AWIPS SBN Increase in AWIPS Database in GOES-R Era w/NPP w/NPOESS C1 w/GOES-R w/NPOESS C2 w/GOES-S w/MPAR 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 Daily-Mean Data Rate (Mbps) 2007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022 Calendar Year

8. NWS SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY 11/3/20158 But We Have Challenges to fully realize possibilities  Huge data explosion  Rapid data assimilation requirements (e.g., NextGen)—people, models  Demands on data management architecture  Data access on-demand within resource constraints  Integrating all observing data sources to achieve desired effect and outcome  Huge data explosion  Rapid data assimilation requirements (e.g., NextGen)—people, models  Demands on data management architecture  Data access on-demand within resource constraints  Integrating all observing data sources to achieve desired effect and outcome

9. NWS SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY 11/3/20159 The Operational Environment Is Changing  Speed at which decisions are made  Demand for decision support services is increasing  US industry needs the most accurate, accessible, timely and reliable weather data to make critical decisions that impact our national economy  Aviation weather impacts were $41B in 2007  U.S. modeling and data assimilation critical for giving the U.S. a competitive advantage in the global economy  Federal deficits and resource constraints  Integrated observations  More efficient R-T-O (projects, modeling)  Every dollar counts!  Speed at which decisions are made  Demand for decision support services is increasing  US industry needs the most accurate, accessible, timely and reliable weather data to make critical decisions that impact our national economy  Aviation weather impacts were $41B in 2007  U.S. modeling and data assimilation critical for giving the U.S. a competitive advantage in the global economy  Federal deficits and resource constraints  Integrated observations  More efficient R-T-O (projects, modeling)  Every dollar counts!

10. NWS SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY 11/3/201510 Science Service Area Key Products/ Services S&T Goal 2025 Examples Research Needs and Opportunities: Examples Fire WeatherRed Flag Warning>24hr Lead Time (LT) with 95% PODSimulations (high-resolution) of integrated fire weather/behavior HydrologyInundation ForecastsDependable Street Scale Probabilistic Warnings Physically based hydrologic models and ensembles AviationConvection Initiation30 mins LTInitiation and evolution of convection Severe WeatherTornado WarningWarn on Forecast, LT > 1hrImproved understanding of tornado formation and severe weather microphysics Winter WeatherWinter HazardsHigh-Res User-Defined ThresholdsSnow band formation and snow intensity MarineStorm WarningsProbabilistic Warning, LT > 5 daysImprove wave model physics from shelf to shore Tropical WeatherHurricane Track, Intensity Forecasts Errors reduced by 50%Causes of rapid intensity changes ClimateSeasonal/IA ForecastsAccurate 6 month+ LTs on forcing events Earth system modeling with ensemble prediction and uncertainty Severe WeatherTornado WarningWarn on Forecast, LT > 1hrImproved understanding of tornado formation and severe weather microphysics Winter WeatherWinter Storm Warning30 hour LTSnow band formation and snow intensity MarineStorm WarningsProbabilistic Warning, LT > 5 daysImprove wave model physics from shelf to shore Tropical WeatherHurricane Track, Intensity Forecasts Errors reduced by 50%Causes of rapid intensity changes ClimateSeasonal/IA ForecastsAccurate 6 month+ LTs on forcing events Earth system modeling with ensemble prediction and uncertainty Accuracy >85% out to day 5Advanced simulations of generation and reactive chemical transport of airborne particulate matter >90% accuracy, out to day 2Data Assimilation: Ionosphere, Magnetosphere, and Solar Wind <5 mins after triggering eventEnhanced observations and models 1km resolution, 5 min updatesMeteorological influences on renewable and sustainable energy systems Air Quality Predictions Geomagnetic Storm Warnings Tsunami Warnings Wind Forecasts Air Quality Space Weather Tsunami Emerging Areas/ Surface Wx Why Are We Doing This… To Improve Services

11. NWS SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY 11/3/201511 Science Service Area Key Products/ Services S&T Goal 2025 Examples Research Needs and Opportunities: Examples Fire WeatherRed Flag Warning>24hr Lead Time (LT) with 95% PODSimulations (high-resolution) of integrated fire weather/behavior HydrologyInundation ForecastsDependable Street Scale Probabilistic Warnings Physically based hydrologic models and ensembles Aviation Convection Initiation30 mins LT Initiation and evolution of convection Severe WeatherTornado WarningWarn on Forecast, LT > 1hrImproved understanding of tornado formation and severe weather microphysics Winter WeatherWinter HazardsHigh-Res User-Defined ThresholdsSnow band formation and snow intensity MarineStorm WarningsProbabilistic Warning, LT > 5 daysImprove wave model physics from shelf to shore Tropical WeatherHurricane Track, Intensity Forecasts Errors reduced by 50%Causes of rapid intensity changes ClimateSeasonal/IA ForecastsAccurate 6 month+ LTs on forcing events Earth system modeling with ensemble prediction and uncertainty Severe WeatherTornado WarningWarn on Forecast, LT > 1hrImproved understanding of tornado formation and severe weather microphysics Winter WeatherWinter Storm Warning30 hour LTSnow band formation and snow intensity MarineStorm WarningsProbabilistic Warning, LT > 5 daysImprove wave model physics from shelf to shore Tropical WeatherHurricane Track, Intensity Forecasts Errors reduced by 50%Causes of rapid intensity changes ClimateSeasonal/IA ForecastsAccurate 6 month+ LTs on forcing events Earth system modeling with ensemble prediction and uncertainty Accuracy >85% out to day 5Advanced simulations of generation and reactive chemical transport of airborne particulate matter >90% accuracy, out to day 2Data Assimilation: Ionosphere, Magnetosphere, and Solar Wind <5 mins after triggering eventEnhanced observations and models 1km resolution, 5 min updatesMeteorological influences on renewable and sustainable energy systems Air Quality Predictions Geomagnetic Storm Warnings Tsunami Warnings Wind Forecasts Air Quality Space Weather Tsunami Emerging Areas/ Surface Wx Why Are We Doing This… To Improve Services Our Next Grand Science Challenge - Huge Economic Impacts - Enable Warn-on-Forecast

12. NWS SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY 11/3/201512 Why Are We Doing This… Save Lives/Economic Benefits Service Area Improvements Potential Benefits Tropical Cyclone, Track, Intensity, Precip Forecasts Aviation, Fire, and Marine Forecasts Flood and River Predictions Air Quality Predictions Space Weather Seasonal Climate Forecasts for Energy, Agriculture, Ecosys, etc Tornado and Flash Flood Warnings Reduce $10B/yr in trop cyclone damage Reduce $1B/yr in damage from severe wx Reduce $60 B/yr losses from air traffic delays Reduce $4.3B/yr in flood damage Reduce mortality from 50,000/yr from poor AQ Reduce $365M/yr in losses (power industry) Reduce $7B/yr in losses (drought)

13. NWS SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY 11/3/201513 Integrated Observation/Analysis System Analysis Inventory systems, and metadata standards Assess interdepend- encies, oversampling, gaps, levels of criticality Current Individual Systems Public Private Universities Radar Satellite Surface; in-Situ Upper Air Etc Strategies National Mesonet Network of networks Integrated Radar (Lidar, gap-fillers, MPAR) Global Systems Multisensor platforms Optimization with OSEs, OSSEs Standards, Architectures, Protocols Maximize value of investment Future Weather Information Database Open Architecture Exploit Strengths and Weaknesses of all Data to Optimize Capabilities Synergistically GOES-R

14. NWS SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY 11/3/201514 Observations and the Cube WIDB Cube Custom Graphic Generators Custom Graphic Generators Governmental Decision Making Decision Support Systems Decision Support Systems Custom Alphanumeric Generators Custom Alphanumeric Generators Observations Numerical Prediction Systems Numerical Prediction Systems Postprocessed Probabilistic Output Postprocessed Probabilistic Output NWS Forecaster NWS Forecaster Forecasting Automated Forecast Systems Automated Forecast Systems Forecast Integration Radars Aircraft Surface Soundings Private Sector Weather Industry Private Industry

15. NWS SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY 11/3/201515 Building a Road to the Future  GOES has proven its operational value  GOES-R is bringing exciting new capabilities  Significantly more robust enabling technologies and architectures are needed  Strong partnerships are an essential part of reaching NOAA Goals!  GOES has proven its operational value  GOES-R is bringing exciting new capabilities  Significantly more robust enabling technologies and architectures are needed  Strong partnerships are an essential part of reaching NOAA Goals!

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17. NWS SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY 11/3/201517 OverviewOverview  GOES’ Importance  Environmental and Customer Challenges  NWS Goals  Call to Action  Conclusion