1. The impact of more efficient new passenger cars on energy consumption in EU-15 countries Amela Ajanovic Energy Economics Group Vienna University of Technology Shanghai, 2012

2. Content 1.Introduction 2.The impact of fuel intensity & fuel price 3.The impact of size 4.Conclusions

3. 1. Introduction

4. Evolution of CO2 emissions from new passenger cars by the European (ACEA), Japanese (JAMA) and Korean (KAMA) car manufacturer associations

5. 1. Introduction The rebound effect

6. 1. Introduction Development of vehicle km driven (vkm), energy consumption and the fuel intensity of the stock of vehicles in EU-15 from 1990 to 2007 FI vkm E

7. 1. Introduction Normalised development (1990=1) of vehicle km driven (vkm), energy consumption and the fuel intensity of the stock of vehicles in EU-15 from 1990 to 2007 vkm E FI

8. 1. Introduction Development of fuel intensity, power-specific fuel intensity and power (kW) of new vehicles in EU-15 from 1990 to 2009 FI FIP kW

9. 1. Introduction Normalised development (1990=1) of fuel intensity, power-specific fuel intensity and power (kW) of new vehicles in EU-15 from 1990 to 2009 FI FIP

10. 2. The impact of fuel intensity & fuel price The basic relationship: Total energy change from a price change: Total energy change from a change in FI:

11. 2. The impact of fuel intensity The change of energy consumption due to changes in fuel intensity for EU-15, base 1990 Theoretical savings due to better FI Rebound due to better FI Actual savings

12. 2. The impact of fuel intensity & fuel price The change of energy consumption due to changes in fuel intensity and fuel price for EU-15, base 1990 Energy saving due to better FI Energy saving due to price Energy saving due to better FI & price

13. 2. The impact of fuel intensity & fuel price Historic development of total energy consumption in comparison to the impact of fuel intensity and the fuel price for EU-15, base 1990 Historic development Energy consumption w/o FI&P

14. 3. The impact of size Development of kW-av-New vs kW-av-Stock

15. 3. The impact of size The impact of better FI and switch to larger cars on total passenger car energy consumption Theoretical savings due to better FI Additional Rebound due to higher kW Hypothetical savings due to better FIP (without increases in kW) Rebound due to better FI Actual savings

16. 3. The impact of size Historical Development without better FI Development without switch to larger cars Actual savings due to better FI Total hypothetical savings without switch to larger cars! Historic development of total energy consumption in comparison to the impact of fuel intensity and switch to larger cars, base 1990

17. 4. Conclusions Due to pure efficiency improvements in the EU-15 about 50% more energy would have been saved (including vkm driven rebound) between 1990 and 2007 if no switch to larger cars would have been achieved. This leads to the major conclusion that policies that strive only for efficiency improvements for passenger cars will have very limited success. Hence it is necessary to introduce proper additional fuel taxes (to curb the increase in vkm) and size- dependent registration taxes (to avoid excessive increases in car size) to finally harvest the full benefits of better car efficiency.

18. Thank you!