1. Technology for a better society AN SCGE MODEL INTEGRATING THE ENERGY SYSTEM AND THE REGIONAL ECONOMY Ruud Egging 24 Oct 2013 CREE meets CenSES

2. Technology for a better society Regional energy balance and supply costs/prices Impact (energy-intensive) industry output, goods prices and consumption levels economic activity & growth, commodity prices & demand Integrated/consistent projections for energy supply and demand (rel. to other models) 2 Insights we want from RegPol SCGE

3. Technology for a better society 1.Energy systems model (TIMES-Norway) 2.National macroeconomic model (MODDAG/MSG) 3.Economic-demographic single-region model (PANDA) 4.SCGE for regional economies and relations between economy and energy system (*) 3 RegPol Models

4. Technology for a better society Regional analysis Spatial-Equilibrium setting Bridge between TIMES and PANDA Impact on value creation, energy balance & security, energy prices by region, industry type 4 Role of SCGE in RegPol

5. Technology for a better society 7+sokkel regions (later 19 counties + 1) Enough sector detail to capture interactions, substitution and impact of energy system: multiple fuels and energy carriers production (sectors) & conversion technologies, incl. substitution and efficiency transportation (infra: use of capital, or endowment) consumption government 5 Multi-Regional Multi-Sector Multi-Period

6. Technology for a better society Eight Norwegian regions (incl. Sokkel) One outside world Eventually: 19 Fylke + Sokkel + surrounding countries 6 Prototype - Regions

7. Technology for a better society Reflect energy carrier production and conversion: OIL, GAS Oil and natural gas (or separate, so that e.g. easier to reflect different developments in prod levels?) ELE Electricity (All inclusive Hydro plus newly installed renewables as scenario assumptions?) Refineries? 7 Production Sectors - Energy

8. Technology for a better society Focus on energy intensive sectors Construction (infra) Energy intensive industries, incl. refining Manufacturing other Services Eventually: separate refineries, and more detail in classes of energy intensiveness? 8 Production Sectors Other

9. Technology for a better society Want to reflect energy transport, general trade and pax transport (el-cars, biofuels..) electricity oil/gas freight passengers 9 Transport and trade

10. Technology for a better society Trade, also foreign trade, on a regional level, especially for energy Can consider an energy trader using energy transport services and needing capital and other input factors to reflect infrastructure (capacity needs) Pax transport via consumer demand 10 Transport and Trade

11. Technology for a better society Is not likely to be a main driver of our model in itself But need to be able to reflect price, tax & other measures and incentives impact on consumption changes 11 Household Consumption

12. Technology for a better society Regional and National Measures, regulations, taxes, incentives Regional: projects/business cases 12 Governments

13. Technology for a better society Want to capture Energy Exports and Imports county specific: FIN; RUS; SWE, DK, DEU, NLD, UKD, ROW…? Levels/Balances: Exogenous net import/export level? 13 Modeling Rest of the World

14. Technology for a better society Want to reflect daily load and seasonal variation in supply and demand Eventually dynamic model with long-term horizon 14 Time periods

15. Technology for a better society THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION 15