1. robindcmatthews.com 3 October 2015 Part 1 RANEPA lecture to students october 3 2015 robindcmatthews 1

2. NOTE In this presentation and in the two following presentations Interdependence in globalisation part 2 and part 3 I am indebted to a number of sources: Managing global finance as a system Speech given by Andrew G Haldane, Chief Economist, Bank of England At the Maxwell Fry Annual Global Finance Lecture, Birmingham University 29 October 2014 Stuck: Speech given by Andrew G Haldane, Chief Economist, Bank of England, Open University, Milton Keynes 30 June 2015 Rethinking the financial network: Andrew G Haldane* Executive Director, Financial Stability Bank of England Speech delivered at the Financial Student Association, Amsterdam April 2009 Climate change: The world is warming, Heat map 14:31 by The Economist online Nov 29th 2010. RGE Monitor; MonthlyChartbook: Pauline Argudin and the Roubini research team September 2015 And various images taken from the internet. lecture to students october 3 2015 robindcmatthews 2

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4. Evolution and change distinction Typest Randomno pattern Normal distributionBell shaped or approximately so Fat tailed distributions change on all scales possible; Black Swans Deterministic predictable iff imformation perfect ChaoticDeterministic but CDIC CatastrophicSingularity and great extinctions Self ordered criticality Attraction to tipping points; major (phase) transitions. change Evolution lecture to students october 3 2015 robindcmatthews 4

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