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Watch List Presentations April 17, 2008 David Light, Phil Rosen, Tim Tyson.

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Presentation on theme: "Watch List Presentations April 17, 2008 David Light, Phil Rosen, Tim Tyson."— Presentation transcript:

1 Watch List Presentations April 17, 2008 David Light, Phil Rosen, Tim Tyson

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3 Company Overview  Leading Biotechnology firm  Discover, develop, and manufacture medicines for patients with unmet medical needs  3 Main Areas of Focus Oncology Immunology Tissue Growth and Repair

4 http://www.gene.com/gene/ir/financials/annual-reports/2007/financials/marketedproducts.html, Accessed 15 Apr 08 2007 Product Sales  3 Blockbuster Drugs  38% Average Growth in Product Sales past 5 years Rituxan 27% Avastin 27% Herceptin 15%

5 Q1 2008 Revenue Rituxan®60553513% Avastin®60053313 Herceptin®3393119 Lucentis®198211-6 Xolair®1171115 Tarceva®1111029 Nutropin® Products8491-8 Thrombolytics6768 Pulmozyme®575210 Raptiva®26248 Total U.S. product sales2,2052,0378 Net product sales to collaborators174292-40 Total product sales2,3792,3292 2008 Q1 2007 Q1 % Change

6 http://www.gene.com/gene/ir/financials/annual-reports/2007/financials/marketedproducts.html, Accessed 15 Apr 08 Avastin  Approved to treat Lung, Colon, and Breast Cancer  Blocks blood vessels from forming in tumors  31% sales growth from ’06 to ‘07

7 Rituxan http://www.gene.com/gene/ir/financials/annual-reports/2007/financials/marketedproducts.html, Accessed 15 Apr 08  Approved to treat non-Hodgkin’s Lymphoma, Leukemia, and some autoimmune diseases  Depletes B cells in diseases characterized by having too many B cells or dysfunctional B cells  10% sales growth from ‘06 to ‘07

8 Herceptin http://www.gene.com/gene/ir/financials/annual-reports/2007/financials/marketedproducts.html, Accessed 15 Apr 08  Approved to treat various forms of breast cancer  Significant sales growth when new uses are discovered, but otherwise steady growth

9 Pipeline Many extended uses of Avastin, Herceptin, and Rituxan Majority already undergoing Phase III clinical trials

10 Management  CEO/Chairman: Arthur Levinson, PH.D. Started in the company as a senior scientist  President Product Development: Susan Desmond-Hellmann, M.D. Joined the company as a clinical scientist  Executive VP/CFO: David Ebersman Started as a business development analyst with the company  Executive VP of Research: Richard Scheller, PH.D. Prior to joining DNA he was a professor of Molecular and Cellular Physiology and of Biological Sciences at Stanford

11 Management’s 2010 Goals  Bring at least 20 new molecules into clinical development  Bring at least 15 major new products or indications onto the market  Achieve a compund annual non-GAAP earnings per share growth rate of 25%  Achieve cumulative free cash flow of $12 billion  Become the number one U.S. oncology company in sales

12 Roche  Majority owner of Genentech  Holding company that helps market Genentech’s products internationally

13 Recent News and Developments  On February 22, 2008, the FDA granted accelerated approval for Avastin in combination with paclitaxel chemotherapy for the first-line treatment of advanced HER2- negative breast cancer.

14 Valuation

15  Current Price: $74.18  DCF Valuation: $114.83  Intrinsic Value: 103.35 – 126.31  WACC: 8.25%  Beta:.75, L/T Growth: 4%

16 Valuation Growth Rate 114.80 2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%4.0%4.5%5.0%5.5%6.0% WACC7.0% 111.22 120.87 132.95 148.47 169.17 198.15 241.61 314.05 458.94 7.5% 99.37 106.95 116.21 127.79 142.68 162.52 190.31 231.99 301.45 8.0% 89.55 95.61 102.87 111.76 122.86 137.14 156.17 182.82 222.80 8.25% 85.30 90.76 97.25 105.12 114.83 127.14 143.24 165.20 196.94 9.0% 74.22 78.26 82.98 88.56 95.24 103.42 113.64 126.78 144.30 9.5% 68.14 71.50 75.38 79.91 85.26 91.67 99.52 109.33 121.94 10.0% 62.84 65.67 68.89 72.62 76.96 82.10 88.26 95.79 105.20 11.0% 54.09 56.13 58.43 61.03 64.00 67.44 71.44 76.18 81.85 12.0% 47.16 48.68 50.37 52.25 54.37 56.77 59.51 62.68 66.38

17 Recommendation  Add Genentech to the RCMP Watch List Increasing uses of big 3 drugs Strong Drug Pipeline (Many Phase III Trials) Strong earnings growth Strong balance sheet (minimal debt, surplus cash) Not greatly threatened by generic competition Warrants further review in Fall 2008


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