1. 27th ISMOR: 30 Aug – 3 Sept 2010 Is Soft OR Sufficient to Inform Helicopter Operations in the Australian Defence Force Arvind Chandran Defence Science and Technology Organisation OR Methods we use, along with some cool pictures, that’ll hopefully distract everyone from the fact that I don’t know anything about soft OR…

2. 27th ISMOR: 30 Aug – 3 Sept 2010 DSTO OR Support to the ADF Provides an UNDERSTANDING of CAPABILITY What systems to obtain How to use those systems DSTO OR Support to FAA and 16 Avn Brigade To DEVELOP, EXPLORE and ANALYSE mission tactics ASuW, ASW, maritime support, SAR Reconnaissance, Attack, AMO

3. 27th ISMOR: 30 Aug – 3 Sept 2010 How has DSTO provided OR support? Mathematical Modelling of systems Spreadsheet analysis / statistics Simulation Issues with using Hard OR techniques Costs – both in time and money Difficult to define and scope the problem Can SOFT OR methods offer sufficient insights and add value to operational problems?

4. 27th ISMOR: 30 Aug – 3 Sept 2010 An Example Mission Air-Mobile Operation in a high-threat environment Flight Path Waypoint Threat Zone Embarkation Disembarkation

5. 27th ISMOR: 30 Aug – 3 Sept 2010 The Air-Mobile Mission Air-Mobile Team: 2 x ARH + 4 x MRH 90 Transit over terrain, collecting troops from PZ Flies series of waypoints to LZ Air Mobile Team then returns to FOB Rugged Terrain, MANPADs, small-arms threats MOEs: Survivability, threat detection capability, optimal altitudes, speeds, flight paths for safety

6. 27th ISMOR: 30 Aug – 3 Sept 2010 What do Operators / Military Stakeholders Want from OR? To enhance mission effectiveness Defining COI Modelling the mission Analysing the merits of different options Recommendations / outcomes / refinement

7. 27th ISMOR: 30 Aug – 3 Sept 2010 A Well-Defined Problem An understanding of the critical operational issue Political, social, economic and ethical context Scenario context (environment, allies, threats) What systems require adequate representation What measures will assist in the evaluation What are the constraints and assumptions Requires significant operator input

8. 27th ISMOR: 30 Aug – 3 Sept 2010 Realistic Modelling Representing reality by extracting what is important Effectively represent the operational aspects of the mission and environment Strategic factors, human facts and system specifications need to be recognised. Validity and reliability is critical PlatformWeapons Guns Rocket PGM Missiles Tactics Manoeuvre Weapon Sensor CM Chaff Flare Obscurant Comms Radio Datalink Sensors Eyesight Radar EWSP EO/IR Environment

9. 27th ISMOR: 30 Aug – 3 Sept 2010 Detailed and Relevant Analysis Metrics need to be defined (MOEs) Ability to detect a threat Ability to classify a threat Optimal altitudes and speeds for safe conduct Optimal flight path for safe conduct Detection Capability at Different Altitudes Classification Capability at Different Altitudes and Visibility Levels Likelihood of Survivability on Different Flight Paths

10. 27th ISMOR: 30 Aug – 3 Sept 2010 A Guarantee of Outcomes Recommendations that offer a scientific justification To improve survivability To improve lethality To improve endurance To improve force co-ordination / interoperability To improve overall mission effectiveness Break Turn or Dig & Pinch In-Place Turn to Head-on attack Break Turn or TAC Turn Cross Turn & Cover Break Turn or TAC Turn Break Turn & Cover Break Turn & Cover Split Turn In-Place Turn or Split Turn In-Place Turn or Split Turn Right Left 12 2 4 10 8 6 2 km 5 km

11. 27th ISMOR: 30 Aug – 3 Sept 2010 Hard OR Modelling Methods used by DSTO Analytical Method (Days-Weeks) Low-Complexity Simulation Framework (Weeks-Months) High-Complexity Simulation Framework (Months-Years) Operational Question Operational Recommendations

12. 27th ISMOR: 30 Aug – 3 Sept 2010 The Analytical Approach Uses a series of simplified calculations to produce a quantitative solution Most operational aspects are modelled Helicopter motion Flight path Detection capabilities Threat effects Environmental factors

13. 27th ISMOR: 30 Aug – 3 Sept 2010 Low Fidelity Simulation Models require some background knowledge Models are representative of real systems with more assumptions Simple rule-based decision making Some V&V required – larger tolerance limits allowed Some data collectable.

14. 27th ISMOR: 30 Aug – 3 Sept 2010 High Fidelity Simulation Models can require large amounts of background knowledge Models are more closely representative of real systems Models of Operator Decision-Making are more detailed Model V&V required – trials, experiments and exercises Significant amounts of data collectable.

15. 27th ISMOR: 30 Aug – 3 Sept 2010 High Complexity Simulation Framework 2-D Visualisation 3-D Visualisation

16. 27th ISMOR: 30 Aug – 3 Sept 2010 Can Soft OR Add Value? Qualitative or interpretive approaches Used to define, scope and structure the problem Require stakeholder input Does not necessarily facilitate quantifiable analysis, cannot objectively compare CoA or guarantee outcomes Outputs may correspond with hard OR approaches, however reliability & validity are limited

17. 27th ISMOR: 30 Aug – 3 Sept 2010 Soft OR Approaches Used in DSTO Scenario planning – stepping through the scenario Interactive planning – moving from a current to desired state Decision trees – examining different CoAs Experimentation – understanding future capabilities and identify gaps and requirements SWOT / PEST analysis – planning and developing possible future scenarios and external drivers

18. 27th ISMOR: 30 Aug – 3 Sept 2010 Soft vs Hard OR Methods In theatre, both soft and hard OR provide an improved understanding of the environment At strategic level, including long-term planning significant uncertainty exists – soft OR assists to constrain the define the problem At system level (sensor / weapon / airframe performance), soft OR offers little At other levels, a mix of soft and hard OR methods can provide a comprehensive understanding

19. 27th ISMOR: 30 Aug – 3 Sept 2010 OR Approaches for Examining Different Levels of Military Warfare Level of Military WarfareOR ApproachModelling Methods Strategic Level, including long-term planning Soft OR SWOT, PEST, experimentation, scenario planning, decision trees Campaign Level, including force-level combat Soft / Hard OR SWOT, PEST, scenario planning, game theory, Markov chains, simulation Mission / Operational Level Soft / Hard OR Scenario planning, interactive planning, decision tree analysis, simulation, analytical methods Tactical / Engagement Level Soft / Hard OR Scenario planning, interactive planning, decision tree analysis, simulation, analytical methods System Level Hard OR Simulation, analytical methods

20. 27th ISMOR: 30 Aug – 3 Sept 2010 Discussion and Conclusions Approach depends on Level of military warfare being analysed Stakeholder’s requirements Objectives Combinations of Hard/Soft OR approaches are ideal Can Soft OR methods add value at operational level? Yes – in the absence of quantitative information Mainly to define/understand problem – then use Hard OR techniques to solve…

21. 27th ISMOR: 30 Aug – 3 Sept 2010 Questions?