1. ProCost Version 3 Christian Douglass, Ryan Firestone, Charlie Grist
Regional Technical Forum
September 22, 2015

2. Presentation Outline ProCost Overview Updates to ProCost Next steps
What ProCost computes
How ProCost is used in Power Plan and by RTF
Updates to ProCost
Architecture
Methodology
Next steps
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3. ProCost Overview
Unit Energy Savings (UES) Measure – changes in system configuration, equipment specifications or operating practices
Measure Application – permutation of measure identifiers (e.g., MH homes in HZ3)
Savings Component – A component of savings that is modeled separately to capture unique savings, cost, lifetime parameters (e.g., different load shapes for heating and cooling savings)
Measure Analysis Workbook – workbook containing
Savings, cost, and lifetime analysis
Analysis methodology overview
Results: levelized cost, cost effectiveness
Measure specifications
Delivery verification
ProCost – VBA algorithm that computes levelized cost and cost effectiveness of measure applications

4. ProCost Overview ProCost computes UES measure
Levelized cost of savings ($/kWh)
Regional cost effectiveness (Societal Total Resource Cost (TRC)) Benefit/Cost (B/C) ratio
many additional cost, savings, and carbon parameters
Each ProCost file can model multiple “applications” of a measure
Permutations of measure identifiers
Each application can have multiple savings components

5. ProCost Overview – Existing Architecture
Marginal Costs and Loadshapes Workbook (“MC_and_Loadshapes”)
Measure Analysis Workbook
Measure-level inputs (sheet “ProData”)
Cost, Savings, and Lifetime analysis
“Summary” sheet
measure specs
delivery verification
methodology overview
Application-level inputs (sheet “Measure_
InputOutput”)
ProCost engine (VBA)
Measure Table
formatted summary of results
Application-level outputs (sheet “Measure_
InputOutput”)

6. ProCost Overview – New Architecture
Marginal Costs and Loadshapes file (Excel) (“MC_and_Loadshapes”)
Measure Analysis Workbook (Excel)
Cost, Savings, and Lifetime analysis
“Summary” sheet
measure specs
delivery verification
methodology overview
Application-level inputs (sheet “Measure_
InputOutput”)
ProCost engine and Batch Run Tool (Excel)
Measure-level inputs (sheet “ProData”)
Measure Table
formatted summary of results
Application-level outputs (sheet “Measure_
InputOutput”)

7. ProCost Overview Inputs (1)
Measure application-specific data* (Sheet “Measure_InputOutput”)
Annual Savings (kwh/yr) and (therms/yr)
Life (yrs)
Capital Cost
Annual O&M Cost
Load Shape (separate electric and gas)
Non-electric Benefit ($/yr)
Periodic costs throughout lifetime of measure
NEW: Remaining useful life (RUL): time, updated annual savings, salvage value
*Can also be savings-component-specific inputs for a single application (e.g., savings from heatings, savings from cooling)

8. ProCost Overview Inputs (2) Measure-level data (Sheet “ProData”)
Pointers to marginal costs and load shapes
Model options
How to handle negative costs and benefits
Application of administrative cost adders
Repeat periodic costs
Program parameters
Program life
Program start date
Financial Parameters
Discount rate
Regional Act Conservation Credit
Cost of capital, by sponsor (customer, wholesale elec., retail elec., gas)
Utility System Parameters
Average line loss
Value of avoided capacity
Risk mitigation credit

9. ProCost Overview Inputs (3)
Marginal Cost and Loadshape file (“MC_and_Loadshape”)
Avoided cost of electricity, gas, and carbon
Load shapes
NEW: definitions of system peak hours

10. ProCost Overview Engine Outputs (sheet “Measure_InputOutput”)
Computation of levelized costs and cost-effectiveness
VBA code in Excel file
Outputs (sheet “Measure_InputOutput”)
Site and busbar savings (kWh, kW, therms)
Carbon savings
Present value costs and benefits to utility, region
Levelized cost
Cost effectiveness

11. ProCost Overview The Measure Analysis file also houses:
Analysis of savings, cost, and lifetime, including documentation of sources and supporting documents
Summary sheet, which summarizes
Measure specifications
Delivery verification details
Savings, cost, and lifetime methodologies and data sources
Sheet “MeasureTable”, which provides summary data for each instance of the measure

12. Updates to ProCost – Interface
Gave ProData tab a new, fresh look with the Council’s updated logo
Traded radio buttons for drop-down menus in favor of fewer bugs across versions of Excel
Other code changes to minimize bugs were made as well

13. Updates to ProCost - Architecture
Disaggregation of ProCost engine from analysis file
Previous versions of ProCost housed engine and measure analysis in same file
Pros – Streamlined use
Cons – Any change to ProCost analysis (VBA) means creating new measure files for all ~100 UES measures, or living with differences
Version 3 separates the two
Do not need to update measure analysis when engine changes – just point new engine to measure analysis
Keeps analysis workbooks simpler – no named ranges, no embedded VBA code (for most measures)

14. Updates to ProCost - Architecture
Batch run functionality
Engine is now housed in a file that allows for batch runs of multiple ProCost input files
Facilitates analysis of suites of measures for Power Plan, complex measures
Fast update of measures after a ProCost update
[Demonstration after slides]

15. Updates to ProCost - Architecture
Changes to MC_and_Loadshape file
Can handle 24 and 48 segment files (previously had to be 48)
Specify peak hours (previous hard coded in ProCost)

16. Updates to ProCost - Methodology
Load Shapes
Previously 48 segment (4 segment x 12 months) shapes specified in MC_and_Loadshape
Now MC_and_Loadshape contains Generalized Load Shapes (GLS)
Hourly load profiles for weekday, holiday, and peak day
Energy analysis: ProCost engines converts this to 24 segment or 48 segment
Demand analysis: ProCost uses GLS
Demand (coincident peak kW)
Previously based on average demand within several time segments (48 segments per year)
Time segments hard-coded in ProCost engine
Now based on maximum demand within individual hours (e.g., 6p.m. weekdays in Jan/Feb/Dec)
Hours specified in MC_and_Loadshape file
Load-shapes contain mapping to peak days of each month
>>> these changes results in higher Demand savings

17. Updates to ProCost - Methodology
Line losses
Previously used average marginal line loss factor for all time periods
Now have line loss correlated to coincidence with system loads
Higher line loss at times of high system load
Lower line loss at time of low system load
Remaining Useful Life (RUL)
Previously, only a single stream of savings and costs
Now an RUL can be specified
Time, change in savings, and salvage value of capital
T&D deferral, risk mitigation based on post-RUL savings

18. Updates to ProCost - Methodology
Costs
Periodic O&M – Correction of handling of periodic O&M costs, simplification of code

19. Next Steps RTF CAT to finalize computation changes in ProCost engine
Wrap up by mid to late October
Council to release Draft Seventh Plan in October (anticipated)
Council staff to present cost effectiveness methodology from Draft Seventh Plan at November RTF meeting
Bonneville (and RTF) will convert RTF workbooks to new format throughout fall
Mostly stripping files of ProCost engine, named ranges
RTF CAT will work with Bonneville/contractors
Will run workbooks with DRAFT 7th Plan parameters
Council to release Final Seventh Plan in February (anticipated)
RTF to adopt Final Seventh Plan cost-effectiveness methodology in February
Once RTF approves, RTF staff will re-run all measures with final methodology and start using ProCost version 3 for all new measure development

20. Wish list, other changes
Add Capacity credit (as per 7th Plan)
Option to set program life equal to measure life
More appropriate for RTF analysis
Cleaning code
Improving commenting of code
Documentation