1. 1 UNIDO Productivity Databases Amadou BOLY, UNIDO First Al-Khawarezmi conference Doha, Qatar 6-8 December 2010

2. UNIDO Industrial Statistics Database UNIDO collects, maintains and disseminates international industrial statistics (manufacturing) Data for 181 countries and territories from 1963... but with gaps Data on major industrial statistics, by ISIC rev 3 and rev 2: Number of units, employment, wages and salaries, output, value added, capital formation and production indices Dissemination media: International Yearbook of Industrial Statistics CD products (INDSTAT 2 and INDSTAT 4) Online access to country briefs 2

3. 3 Productivity Projects World Productivity Database (WPD) https://www.unido.org/data1/wpd/Index.cfm World Manufacturing Productivity Database (in progress) Productivity and Structural Change

4. 4 Why productivity? Why are some countries richer than others? Why are some firms more competitive than others? Why do you earn more than …? Productivity  welfare, prosperity A few graphs to illustrate

5. 5 TFP and Poverty gap (1$) Source: World Productivity Database and World Development Indicators 2006.

6. 6 TFP and Poverty headcount Source: World Productivity Database and World Development Indicators 2006.

7. 7 TFP and Life expectancy Source: World Productivity Database and World Development Indicators 2006.

8. 8 TFP and Mortality rate under 5 Source: World Productivity Database and World Development Indicators 2006.

9. 9 Output per worker Source: Isaksson, 2010.

10. 10 Theory and Concepts #1 Solow’s model Y=A f(K,L)  Hicks-neutral A = TFP = technology … at least in theory TFP growth = technical progress (theory) A = Y / K α L β, often α+β=1

11. 11 Theory and Concepts #2 Objective is to increase output/worker Factor accumulation vs Technical progress –Factor accumulation comes to a halt –Technical progress the only source of growth

12. 12 Capital accumulation vs. Technical progress

13. 13 Productivity analysis Define policy areas –Factor accumulation versus technical change –Which sectors contribute? –Which sectors are a drag? Resources are scarce, trade offs

14. 14 Determinants: TFP Level TFP t = F(past) Acemoglu, Rodrik on Institutions International integration Glaeser et al on Human capital Health Culture and social institutions?

15. 15 Determinants: TFP growth R&D and the like Schooling and Health Infrastructure … And much more  growth econometrics

16. 16 Measurement issues Measurement of Y, K, L (and other inputs) Functional form and specification Measurement of α and β, returns to scale? Quality of inputs and utilization rates Disembodied/embodied technical change

17. 17 Conclusions Productivity is key to our welfare Important to gauge productivity… but difficult Missing and shaky data Are we sure about the determinants? How can poor countries catch up? UN, NSO and academe need to cooperate