1. Adapting Florida’s Affordable Housing Needs Assessment Methodology to Developing Countries: the Case of Brazil Joseli Macedo William J. O’Dell Marc T. Smith University of Florida Shimberg Center for Affordable Housing

2. Basic Dimensions of Original Model Demand tenure age of head of household size of household income of household cost burden Supply housing inventory seasonal occupancy vacancies

3. Original Methodology Population Projections and Headship Rates Population by Age (two decennial Census) Population Projections by Age Number of Householders by Age and Tenure Cross-tabulations income of household size of household cost burden

4. Adaptation Process definition of land and house tenure definition of adequate shelter, adequate infrastructure definition of family

5. Concepts affecting adaptation informality vs. formality adequacy of shelter standard and substandard conditions tenure as a measure of security

6. Demand Data. Brazil Model population projections household formation rates tenure age of head of household size of household income of household

7. Tenure Typology Brazilian Census land ownership: 3 housing unit: 6 settlement type: 50+ infrastructure: sewer and indoor plumbing Premises lack of land title does not constitute a housing need no-cash renters others & improvised = substandard

8. Tenure Typology Florida Model owners renters Brazil Model owners standard owners substandard renters standard renters substandard

9. Age of Head of Household Age Groups 15 – 24 years old 25 – 34 years old 35 – 44 years old 45 – 54 years old 55 – 64 years old over 65 years old cultural differences “late-stayers”

10. Household Typology Brazilian Census family household Definitions extended family multiple families choice vs. need secondary families

11. Household Typology Size of household one to two persons three persons four persons five or more persons Premises very few one-person households shared households overcrowding constitutes a housing need

12. Income Florida Model jurisdiction medians Brazil Model monthly minimum wage (m.m.w.) housing programs low-income majority Income categories less than 1 m.m.w. 1 to 1.99 m.m.w. 2 to 2.99 m.m.w. 3 to 5.99 m.m.w. 6 to 11.99 m.m.w. over 12 m.m.w.

13. Supply Data housing inventory occupied dwellings seasonal units vacant units unqualified data group quarters

14. Needs Assessment needed to accommodate projected number of families total number of dwelling units: distributed by type, tenure and rent value, according to family income

15. Brazil Model. Projections Population projections 2000: 170 million 2010: 190 million 2020: 211 million Household Projections 45 million households (2000 Census) 47 million households (“spin-offs”) 70 million households by 2020

16. Brazil Model. Housing Profile 2000 housing stock: 51.6 million units 74% owners 52% standard 26% renters 55% standard 33% of households with 5 + persons 7% of householders under 25 years old 25% between 35 - 44 13% older than 65 46% of households earn less than 3 m.m.w. 12% less than 1 m.m.w.

17. Observations constant income across age categories households with one or two persons have the highest income constant ratio of owners to renters across age categories higher percentage of standard owners as householders age

18. Proportion of Owners to Renters and Standard to Substandard Units by Age Group, Brazil, 2000

19. Comparative Analysis US as householders age, income, household size and rate of ownership increase Brazil income and rate of ownership are constant across age categories culture education professional opportunities informal economy

20. Observations households with higher incomes, regardless of age, have more access to ownership and are more likely to occupy standard housing 66% earning less than 3 m.m.w. live in substandard conditions 82% earning more than 12 m.m.w. live in standard conditions vacancy rates are much higher than expected (12.7%)

21. Projected Number of Households and Construction Need, Brazil million

22. Projections for 2020 tenure and condition of household 14.9 million additional owner-occupied households 5.1 million additional renter-occupied households 10.7 million additional standard households 9.3 million additional substandard households

23. Projected Number of Households by Tenure, Brazil, 2003 to 2020

24. Projections for 2020 households with one or two persons will increase by 44% 2.3 million additional households will earn less than 1 m.m.w. 9 million additional households will earn less than 3 m.m.w. 28 million additional units if vacancy rate remains at 12.7%