1. From the Lab to the Marketplace to Standards Hertz Foundation Symposium San Jose, CA 3-17-2007 Arthur H. Rosenfeld, Commissioner California Energy Commission (916) 654-4930 ARosenfe@Energy.State.CA.US http://www.energy.ca.gov/commission/commissioners/rosenfeld.html or just Google “Art Rosenfeld”

2. 2

3. 3 1949

4. 4

5. 5

6. 6 Environmental Equivalent of Avoiding 70 Quads u70 Quads = 33 Mbod (Million barrels of oil per day) = 40% of World oil production of 80 Mbod u70 Quads = 1 Billion cars off the road, impressive since there are only 600 million cars on the road

7. 7 How Much of The Savings Come from Efficiency? uEasiest to tease out is cars –In the early 1970s, only 14 miles per gallons –Now about 21 miles per gallon –If still at 14 mpg, we’d consume 75 billion gallons more and pay $225 Billion more at 2006 prices –But we still pay $450 Billion per year –If California wins the “Schwarzenegger-Pavley” suit, and it is implemented nationwide, we’ll save another $150 Billion per year uCommercial Aviation improvements save another $50 Billion per year uAppliances and Buildings are more complex –We must sort out true efficiency gains vs. structural changes (from smokestack to service economy).

8. 8 How Much of The Savings Come from Efficiency (cont’d)? uSome examples of estimated savings in 2006 based on 1974 efficiencies minus 2006 efficiencies uBeginning in 2007 in California, reduction of “vampire” or stand-by losses –This will save $10 Billion when finally implemented, nation-wide uOut of a total $700 Billion, a crude summary is that 1/3 is structural, 1/3 is from transportation, and 1/3 from buildings and industry.

9. 9 A supporting analysis on the topic of efficiency from Vice-President Dick Cheney u“ Had energy use kept pace with economic growth, the nation would have consumed 171 quadrillion British thermal units (Btus) last year instead of 99 quadrillion Btus” u“About a third to a half of these savings resulted from shifts in the economy. The other half to two-thirds resulted from greater energy efficiency” Source: National Energy Policy: Report of the National Energy Policy Development Group, Dick Cheney, et. al., page 1-4, May 2001

10. 10

11. 11 ∆ = 4,000kWh/yr = $110/capita

12. 12 Carbon Dioxide Intensity and Per Capita CO2 Emissions -- 2001 (Fossil Fuel Combustion Only) 0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00 0.000.100.200.300.400.500.600.700.800.901.00 intensity (tons of CO2 per 2000 US Dollar) Tons of CO2 per person Canada Australia S. Korea California Mexico United States Austria Belgium Denmark France Germany Italy Netherlands New Zealand Switzerland Japan

13. 13

14. 14

15. 15 Comparison of Fuel Economy – Passenger Vehicles

16. 16

17. 17

18. 18

19. 19 Impact of Standards on Efficiency of 3 Appliances Source: S. Nadel, ACEEE, in ECEEE 2003 Summer Study, www.eceee.org 75% 60% 25% 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 197219741976197819801982198419861988199019921994199619982000200220042006 Year Index (1972 = 100) Effective Dates of National Standards = Effective Dates of State Standards = Refrigerators Central A/C Gas Furnaces SEER = 13

20. 20 Impact on Lighting of Building + Appliance Standards uUnited States Best Practice measured in Watts/Sq. Ft. of Commercial Building floor area. uIn 1974 = 4 Watts/Sq. Ft. uIn 2006 = 0.8 Watts/Sq. Ft. uAn Enlightened reduction to 1/5 uDrivers: Standards, electronic ballasts, and currently, “scotopic” (blue-ish) color, all thanks to LBNL and Sam Berman.

21. 21 Source: David Goldstein

22. 22 Source: David Goldstein

23. 23

24. 24

25. 25

26. 26 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 3 Gorges 三峡 Refrigerators 冰箱 Air Conditioners 空调 TWh 2000 Stds 2005 Stds If EnergyStar TWH/Year 1.5 4.5 6.0 3.0 7.5 Value (billion $/year) Comparison of 3 Gorges to Refrigerator and AC Efficiency Improvements Savings calculated 10 years after standard takes effect. Calculations provided by David Fridley, LBNL Value of TWh 3 Gorges 三峡 Refrigerators 冰箱 Air Conditioners 空调 Wholesale (3 Gorges) at 3.6 c/kWh Retail (AC + Ref) at 7.2 c/kWh 三峡电量与电冰箱、空调能效对比 标准生效后， 10 年节约电量

27. 27 United States Refrigerator Use, repeated, to compare with Estimated Household Standby Use v. Time 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 19471949195119531955195719591961196319651967196919711973197519771979198119831985198719891991199319951997199920012003200520072009 Average Energy Use per Unit Sold (kWh per year) Refrigerator Use per Unit 1978 Cal Standard 1990 Federal Standard 1987 Cal Standard 1980 Cal Standard 1993 Federal Standard 2001 Federal Standard Estimated Standby Power (per house)

28. 28 Annual Peak Savings from Efficiency Programs and Standards 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 1975197619771978197919801981198219831984198519861987198819891990199119921993199419951996 1997199819992000200120022003 MW Appliance Standards Building Standards Utility Efficiency Programs at a cost of ~1% of electric bill ~ 22% of Annual Peak in California in 2003 i.e. 22% in 30 years

29. 29 California IOU’s Investment in Energy Efficiency Forecast Profits decoupled from sales Performance Incentives Market Restructuring Crisis IRP 2% of 2004 IOU Electric Revenues Public Goods Charges

30. 30 CO2 Emissions in California: Historical and Projected

31. 31 Emissions of CO2 in California by End Use in 2004 Total Emissions = 490 Million metric tons CO2 equivalent

32. 32 Energy Efficiency, 17% Renewable Energy, 10% Cleaner Power Plants, 9% Clean Cars, 28% Renewable Fuels, 2% Smart Growth, 15% Water Efficiency, 1% Forestry, 20% Other Strategies, 4% Strategies for Meeting California’s CO2 Goals in 2020 Total Reductions = 174 Million metric Tons CO2 equivalent

33. 33 Initiatives in Efficiency u“Fleet” Average for Lighting Efficiency to reduce incandescent share –Measured in lumens/watt uAir conditioning standards –U.S. split into regions based on type of weather –Hot/dry west differs from warm/wet southeast –With peak load as the focus, not seasonal efficiency— “SEER” uWhite roofs on existing buildings uBenchmarking of Commercial Buildings –Fine tuning of energy management systems

34. 34 Source: Stabilization Wedges: Pacala and Socolow, Science Vol 305, page 968 Growth = 1.5%/yr

35. 35 Illuminating Space vs. the Street

36. 36 Heat Mirror Windows – Steve Selkowitz, LBNL uLow Emissivity films are required by building standards world-wide. They reflect far infrared radiation. Retain indoor heat in winter, reflect outdoor heat in summer. They double the R-value of double glazing, and the inside pane is warm to the touch – more comfortable uBefore low-E, windows were 30% of the heat load of a home – now 15%. uDuring a Montana winter, a north-facing low-E window, facing a snowy sunlit slope, is a net energy gainer. u“Selective film are required for Commercial Buildings in California. They reflect far- and near-infrared radiation, and halve the solar gain though windows; including car windshields in BMW’s etc. uModern windows save ~1 Mbod of oil equivalent, = Alaskan oil.

37. 37 Cool Colors Reflect Invisible Near-Infrared Sunlight

38. 38 http://www.nwhi.net/Vinyl_Windows/Low_E_Glass.htm

39. 39 http://www.nwhi.net/Vinyl_Windows/Low_E_Glass.htm

40. 40 Temperature Rise of Various Materials in Sunlight Dr. Hashem Akbari, LBNL Heat Island Group 0.00.20.40.60.8 1.0 50 40 30 20 10 0 Temperature Rise (°C) Galvanized Steel IR-Refl. Black Black Paint Green Asphalt Shingle Red Clay Tile Lt. Red Paint Lt. Green Paint White Asphalt Shingle Al Roof Coat. Optical White White Paint White Cement Coat. Solar Absorptance

41. 41 Temperature Trends in Downtown Los Angeles

42. 42 Potential Savings in LA uSavings for Los Angeles –Direct, $200M/year –Indirect, $140M/year –Smog, $360M/year uEstimate of national potential savings: $5B/year

43. 43 Cool Colors Reflect Invisible Near-Infrared Sunlight

44. 44 From Cool Color Roofs to Cool Color Cars uToyota experiment (surface temperature 10K cooler) uFord and Fiat are also working on the technology

45. 45 UV Water Purification

46. 46 Kothapeta (Dec. 2005) commissioning test Source: Dr. Ashok Gadgil, LBNL

47. Typical interior layout of the WaterHealth Community System Installation in Kothapeta Source: Dr. Ashok Gadgil, LBNL

48. 48 Ashok Gadgil at LBNL points out if UV treatment replaces boiling 10 tons of water per day, each system avoids 3 tons of CO2 per day. An American car emits only 4 tons of CO2 per YEAR UVW meets / exceeds WHO and US EPA purification criteria uEnergy efficient: 60 watts disinfects 1 ton / hour uLow cost: price, including profit, is under 1 cent (US)/gallon uReliable, Mature components uCan treat un-pressurized water uRapid throughput: 12 seconds under lamp uLow maintenance: once every three months u>50 units now operating in India and Philippines, adding one village/week uhttp://www.waterhealth.com/http://www.waterhealth.com/ uIf 1 Billion villagers can avoid boiling 10 liters/day of water (by burning kerosene), the avoided CO2 is equivalent to 5 million barrels/day of gasoline, which is more than half of all US gasoline use. Ultra Violet Water Purification for Villages in Developing World

49. 49 In Nov.-Dec. 2005, he visited Darfur camps, and showed that with a $10 metal stove, and training to use it, only half the fuelwood is needed. The stove saves fuelwood worth $160 annually for a refugee family Since that time, Ashok Gadgil has improved stove efficiency by another factor of two http://www.osti.gov/bridge/servlets/pur l/878538-hMpqN3/878538.PDF Dr. Ashok Gadgil’s Darfur Cookstove Project

50. 50 Contact information Evan Mills Energy Analysis Department Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory Emills@lbl.gov + 1 510 486-6784 http://www.ifc.org/led

51. 51 LEDs Powered with Photovoltaics uEvan Mills at LBNL points out the following: uIf 1.6 billion people could replace kerosene lamps with LEDs, emissions would drop by the equivalent of 1.3 million barrels of petroleum per day uhttp://eetd.lbl.gov/emills/PUBS/Fuel_Based_Lighting.htmlhttp://eetd.lbl.gov/emills/PUBS/Fuel_Based_Lighting.html uThe above estimate was for residential lamps only uIncluding commercial uses, Mills estimates > 2 Mbod uFor comparison, U.S. gasoline use is 9 Mbod

52. 52 Hurricane lanterns uTeachers grading homework with light levels 1% of western standards Tanzania (teachers’ home)

53. 53 Productive uses Tanzania: fruit seller - flame [left]; 1-watt white LED [right]

54. 54 Tanzania: shoe seller - flame [left]; 1-watt white LED [right] Productive uses: big market driver Photos: Evan Mills ©

55. 55 Source: Stabilization Wedges: Pacala and Socolow, Science Vol 305, page 968 Growth = 1.5%/yr

56. 56. uThis talk available on my web page uJust Google “Art Rosenfeld”