1. An overview 9 th September 2009 Families with Children Projection Model: From ONS Projections to DWP Policy

2. 2 Introduction ONS produce: - National Population Projections - Marital/cohabiting Population Projections - Parity Projections DWP require projected numbers of lone parents and couples with dependent children for: - FRS grossing factors - Income Support for Lone Parents benefit expenditure forecasting - Child Maintenance eligible population

3. 3 Stock-based model providing numbers of lone parents and couples with dependent children, split by: Male/Female Single year of age: 16-64 Marital/partnership status GB-based Projected from 2008/09 – 2074/75 Summary

4. 4 Age-specific Proportions LFS spring data from 1997 to the latest year Nine groups of marital status and family types derived: ­Single-living alone ­Single-cohabiting ­Married/separated-living alone ­Married-cohabiting ­Separated-cohabiting ­Widowed-living alone ­Widowed-cohabiting ­Divorced-living alone ­Divorced-cohabiting

5. 5 Population Projections by marital/partnership status ONS marital/cohabiting projections (2003-based) ­Updated for actual numbers to 2005 ­Proportions from 2003 applied to 2006-based National Population Projections Legal Marital Status Cohabiting StatusNever Married MarriedSeparatedWidowedDivorced Need consistent nine groups by marital status and family type: Married/separated living alone Married living with spouse

6. 6 Population Projections by marital/partnership status

7. 7 Fertility Adjustment Factor Parity estimates produced by ONS. ­For England and Wales, but provide proxy projections for the proportions of females with dependent children for GB for each female cohort. Fertility Adjustment Factor ­Attempt to mimic the delay in child birth commonly observed across cohorts in recent years and apply this to the projections. ­Male fertility adjustment factor assumed to be a 3 years older than for females. ­Apply ‘best fit’ distribution for dependents under a certain age ONS Parity – age of oldest child vs. LFS – age of youngest child

8. 8 Fertility Adjustment Factor

9. 9 Summary of calculation

10. 10 Summary of calculation RAW PROJECTIONS Population with Dependent Children Projections: LFS proportions split by marital status x ONS Female Marital Population Projections x ONS Female Fertility Adjustments Factors ‘BEST’ ESTIMATE TOTAL Population with Dependent Children Projections: LFS Total Females proportions x ONS Female Total Population Projections x ONS Female Fertility Adjustments Factors DIFFERENCE Reallocated Total Numbers (actual years) minus Total LFS Number (actual years) REALLOCATION PROJECTIONS Apply difference proportionately to ‘single – living alone’ and ‘single – cohabiting’ ALIGNED PROJECTIONS Apply pooled alignment factor to all categories DIFFERENCE Total population projections minus Total sum of split by marital status

11. 11 Family Resources Survey (FRS) Team ­Grossing factor for lone parents Poverty Team ­Numbers of lone parents Forecasters of Income Support for Lone Parents ­Look at those with dependents aged under 19, 16, 12 and 7 Child Maintenance Support/Strategy Teams ­Family formation/future workload Model Development Teams ­Provides source of inputs for family structure/validation tool Users

12. 12 Future Work Short-term Update with: Spring 2009 LFS data 2006-based Marital/cohabiting status Population Projections 2008-based National Population Projections Long-term Convert the FWC model to a microsimulation model