1. Kazakhstan: Challenges and Achievements in Poverty Reduction Sarosh Sattar The World Bank May 4, 2005

2. 2 Outline of today’s presentation  Changes in poverty over time  Characteristics of the poor  Linkage of poverty and economic growth  Access to services  Social Safety Net  Conclusions

3. Changes in Poverty

4. 4 Trends in aggregate poverty

5. 5 What averages can hide: Rural – urban poverty differentials

6. 6 Oblast level poverty rates

7. 7 …But poverty is multi-dimensional and widespread

8. Characteristics of the poor

9. 9 Prevalence of poverty by age group

10. 10 Some correlates of poverty

11. 11 Escaping poverty The probability of being poor decreases if  Urban resident in large city  Head of household is employed  Fewer children  Small household size  Higher education degree  Own assets such as land or livestock

12. Poverty and Economic Growth

13. 13 International Comparison of Poverty

14. 14 Poverty is correlated with the level of economic development—usually

15. 15 Poverty reduction and growth in oblasts

16. Human Development

17. 17 Life expectancy rates indicate a crisis

18. 18 Infant mortality rates are correlated to poverty

19. 19 Education: School Dropouts

20. 20 Under-utilization of human capital

21. 21 Human capital in limbo?

22. Access to Services

23. 23 Urban access to two essential services

24. 24 Urban access rates for sewerage is correlated with value-added per capita

25. 25 Access to infrastructure services  Though the urban poor are less likely to have access to piped water and sewerage in their dwelling than the better off, many of the middle and upper class lack access as well  Access to services in urban areas mirrors the general level of economic development for non-oil oblasts  Rural sector access to infrastructure services is very low

26. Social Safety Net

27. 27 Three main criteria for success of a poverty reduction program  Maximize coverage of the beneficiary group  Minimize leakage of benefits to the non-poor  Adequacy of benefits in raising people out of poverty

28. 28 Coverage of social protection programs

29. 29 Poverty rates among program recipients

30. 30 Government financing of social protection programs, 2002

31. 31 Conclusions 1  How to help the poor? Further develop targeted program of cash transfers (TSA Program) Provide basic infrastructure services in sewerage, clean water, and heating Economic development at the oblast level

32. 32 Conclusions 2  Further work to be carried out Why is rural poverty falling relatively slowly? Why has urban poverty fallen so fast? How do the rural poor manage in terms of access to clean water, sanitation facilities, and heating? What are the developments in the demand for education? What are the causes of the low life expectancy rates?