1. What is statistics? Data Analysis Trends Proof Hypothesis Represent Interpret

2. The History of Statistics Early statistics 5 th Century BC 17 th Century – Blaise Pascal, Pierre de Fermat 19 th Century – Sir Francis Galton & Karl Pearson 21 st Century – The age of the computer

3. Famous Statistician

5. Who uses statistics?

6. Geographers – Climatologists – Oceanographers – Politicians Economists – Travel and Transport advisors Car Park Planning Speed Cameras Development of new roads, train lines, airports – Retailers – Insurance Brokers – World Health Organisation – Scientists Drug Trials Medical Treatments Disease Control / Prevention

7. Graphical Representations Can you name / sketch 8 different types of graphs and charts?

8. Beautiful Statistics

15. Beautiful Statistics

16. Beautiful Statistics

20. What is Global Warming? What is Climate Change?

21. How could we answer the following questions? In your lifetime (the last 14 years) have temperatures in the UK Increased Decreased Or remained stable ? In your lifetime (the last 14 years) has rainfall in the UK Increased Decreased Or remained stable ?

22. Using historical data to identify trends and make predictions. The met office has been collecting and collating data since 1914. Their website enables you to view data from any of their stations indicated with the red dot.

23. Using historical data to identify trends and make predictions. We will now look at the mean maximum temperature data collected by the Lowestoft station since 2000.

24. What does the graph suggest? Quarter Average Max Temp 2000 1st9.1 2000 2nd15.4 2000 3rd19.4 2000 4th10.6 2001 1st7.4 2001 2nd15.0 2001 3rd19.9 2001 4th11.3 2002 1st9.0 2002 2nd20.1 2002 3rd20.6 2002 4th11.0 2003 1st7.6 2003 2nd16.8 2003 3rd20.5 2003 4th11.0 2004 1st8.2 2004 2nd16.1 2004 3rd19.8 2004 4th11.1 2005 1st8.3 2005 2nd15.8 2005 3rd19.9 2005 4th11.4 2006 1st6.9 2006 2nd15.7 2006 3rd23.7 2006 4th12.7 2007 1st10.0 2007 2nd16.7 2007 3rd19.7 2007 4th11.1 2008 1st9.3 2008 2nd15.9 2008 3rd20.2 2008 4th10.3 2009 1st7.9 2009 2nd16.1 2009 3rd21.2 2009 4th11.6 2010 1st6.4 2010 2nd15.4 2010 3rd20.7 2010 4th9.1 2011 1st8.6 2011 2nd17.8 2011 3rd20.1 2011 4th13.0 2012 1st9.0 2012 2nd14.6 2012 3rd20.4 2012 4th10.7 2013 1st5.5 2013 2nd14.4 2013 3rd20.7 2013 4th11.7

25. Moving Averages Quarter Average Max Temp 2000 1st9.1 2000 2nd15.4 2000 3rd19.4 2000 4th10.6 2001 1st7.4 2001 2nd15.0 2001 3rd19.9 2001 4th11.3 2002 1st9.0 2002 2nd20.1 2002 3rd20.6 2002 4th11.0 2003 1st7.6 2003 2nd16.8 2003 3rd20.5 2003 4th11.0 2004 1st8.2 2004 2nd16.1 2004 3rd19.8 2004 4th11.1 2005 1st8.3 2005 2nd15.8 2005 3rd19.9 2005 4th11.4 2006 1st6.9 2006 2nd15.7 2006 3rd23.7 2006 4th12.7 2007 1st10.0 2007 2nd16.7 2007 3rd19.7 2007 4th11.1 2008 1st9.3 2008 2nd15.9 2008 3rd20.2 2008 4th10.3 2009 1st7.9 2009 2nd16.1 2009 3rd21.2 2009 4th11.6 2010 1st6.4 2010 2nd15.4 2010 3rd20.7 2010 4th9.1 2011 1st8.6 2011 2nd17.8 2011 3rd20.1 2011 4th13.0 2012 1st9.0 2012 2nd14.6 2012 3rd20.4 2012 4th10.7 2013 1st5.5 2013 2nd14.4 2013 3rd20.7 2013 4th11.7

26. Year and QuarterAverage Max Temp 2000 1st9.1 2000 2nd15.4 13.6 2000 3rd19.4 13.2 2000 4th10.6 13.1 2001 1st7.4 2001 2nd15.0 2001 3rd19.9 2001 4th11.3 2002 1st9.0 2002 2nd20.1 2002 3rd20.6 2002 4th11.0 2003 1st7.6 2003 2nd16.8 2003 3rd20.5 2003 4th11 2004 1st8.2 2004 2nd16.1

28. Adding a trend line. What does the trend line tell us about average temperatures since 2000?

29. The bigger picture

31. Average rainfall in the UK past 100 years

32. Could the recent flooding have been predicted? Changes to the rainfall pattern have been observed - these are sometimes more extreme (which means that locations are either a lot wetter or a lot drier than they used to be). At other times the rainfall pattern is out of season. The extreme rainfall in the UK during the summer of 2007 is an example of this. However, in general, UK summers are getting drier and winters are getting wetter.

33. Climatic Investigations Should we expect a hot summer this year? What could indicate a hot summer is on the way?

34. Weather Forecast for 2014 Perhaps hard to believe during the wettest winter in a hundred years, but scientists are 75 per cent certain that 2014 will be the hottest summer on record. The weather is being linked to the El Niño pattern, which occurs when waters on the Pacific equator are unusually warm, which can lead to disruptive changes in ocean and wind currents across the world. The researchers hope that the longer forecasts could be used to help countries prepare more effectively for the potentially turbulent weather changes El Niño can bring.

35. El Niño El Niño is a set of phenomena caused by periodic changes in the ocean atmosphere system in the tropical Pacific Ocean. During El Niño, the trade winds, which usually blow warm surface waters to the west, die down or even reverse. When the wind stops blowing the warm water to the west, the warm water pools in the east, triggering a number of effects in the atmosphere and ocean.

36. In your own words Read the information about El Niño in your booklets. Work with your group to write your own definition in no more that 30 words. Prizes on offer for the best definition!

37. Detecting El Niño One way to detect El Niño is to look at sea surface temperature (SST). The US Ocean and Coastal and Observation system maintains numerous data sets that can be used to study El Niño. We are going to look at some today!

40. Collecting and recording data

43. Can you identify the El Niño years?

45. ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 18 February 2014

46. SST Departures ( o C) in the Tropical Pacific During the Last 4 Weeks During the last 4-weeks, equatorial SSTs were above average in the western Pacific and below-average across the central and eastern Pacific.

47. SST Outlook: NCEP CFS.v2 Forecast Issued 18 February 2014 The CFS.v2 ensemble mean (black dashed line) predicts ENSO-neutral through the N.H. spring 2014 followed by El Niño starting in May-July (MJJ) 2014

49. How can we use this data to influence behaviour What are the benefits of predicting weather events?

50. REVIEW The History of Statistics Beautiful Statistics Village of 100 people Temperature changes Using Moving Averages Rainfall changes Interpreting Data with care El Niño Forecast for 2014 How can statistics influence behaviour changes Competition !