Presentation is loading. Please wait.

Presentation is loading. Please wait.

Marko Papic Chief Strategist Geopolitical Strategy BCA Dialogue May – June 2013 Webcast May 28, 2013 Ian MacFarlane Chief Strategist Global Asset Allocation.

Published byArlene Bridges Modified over 9 years ago

Similar presentations

Presentation on theme: "Marko Papic Chief Strategist Geopolitical Strategy BCA Dialogue May – June 2013 Webcast May 28, 2013 Ian MacFarlane Chief Strategist Global Asset Allocation."— Presentation transcript:

1 Marko Papic Chief Strategist Geopolitical Strategy BCA Dialogue May – June 2013 Webcast May 28, 2013 Ian MacFarlane Chief Strategist Global Asset Allocation

2 2 FRONTIER MARKETS: THE NEXT PLAY? © BCA Research 2013 100 80 60 40 20 800010000 FM ex.GCC (2012) REAL GDP PPP PER CAPITA IN 2005 INTERNATIONAL DOLLARS MARKET CAP AS A % OF GDP SOURCE: THE WORLD BANK AND BCA CALCULATIONS. STRENGTH OF LEGAL RIGHTS 2012 LEVEL (LS) 2004-2012 CHANGE (RS) 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 DMEMFM SOURCE: THE WORLD BANK AND BCA CALCULATIONS. © BCA Research 2013

3 3 SHRINKING DEFICIT IS A GAME CHANGER © BCA Research 2013 10 8 6 4 2 0 -2 506070809020001020 10 8 6 4 2 0 -2 U.S. FEDERAL BUDGET DEFICIT* (AS A PERCENT OF GDP) % Of GDP * RED BARS DENOTE CBO DEFICIT PROJECTIONS. % Of GDP Mean = 2.24% of GDP

4 4 CONGRESSIONAL VS. NATIONAL PARTY © BCA Research 2013 400 200 0 -200 -400 60708090200010 400 200 0 -200 -400 BALANCE OF POWER IN THE WHITE HOUSE* SMOOTHED** * DEMOCRATIC MINUS REPUBLICAN CANDIDATE ELECTORAL COLLEGE VOTES. ** SMOOTHED USING HP-FILTER. 160 120 80 40 0 -40 60708090200010 160 120 80 40 0 -40 BALANCE OF POWER IN CONGRESS* SMOOTHED** * DEMOCRATIC MINUS REPUBLICAN HOUSE REPRESENTATIVES. ** SMOOTHED USING HP-FILTER. © BCA Research 2013 Democratic control Republican control Democratic control Republican control

5 5 CHINA – JAPAN RISKS © BCA Research 2013 130 110 90 70 50 30 909498020610 130 110 90 70 50 30 MILITARY EXPENDITURE*: CHINA JAPAN Bn USD * SHOWN IN CONSTANT 2010 U.S. DOLLARS. SOURCE: STOCKHOLM INTERNATIONAL PEACE RESEARCH INSTITUTE. 1500 1000 500 0 8090200010 1500 1000 500 0 EXPORTS: CHINA JAPAN SHOWN AS 12-MONTH MOVING TOTAL. Bn USD © BCA Research 2013

6 6 FRANCE IS A RISK © BCA Research 2013 2 1 0 -2 708090200010 2 1 0 -2 REAL GDP GROWTH: FRANCE MINUS GERMANY Ann% Chg 5 4 3 2 1 0 -2 708090200010 5 4 3 2 1 0 -2 UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: FRANCE MINUS GERMANY % © BCA Research 2013

7 7 RISKS IN MIDDLE EAST © BCA Research 2013 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 1214161820 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 IRAQ OIL PRODUCTION*: CENTRAL ESTIMATE HIGH ESTIMATE Mn Bbl/ Day SOURCE: INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY (2012). Mn Bbl/ Day

Download ppt "Marko Papic Chief Strategist Geopolitical Strategy BCA Dialogue May – June 2013 Webcast May 28, 2013 Ian MacFarlane Chief Strategist Global Asset Allocation."

Similar presentations

Dimitri B. Papadimitriou GLOBAL IMBALANCES AFTER THE ECONOMIC CRISIS Levy Economics Institute International Development Economics Associates (IDEAs) Conference.

Dimitri B. Papadimitriou GLOBAL IMBALANCES AFTER THE ECONOMIC CRISIS Levy Economics Institute International Development Economics Associates (IDEAs) Conference.
Global Economic and Energy Outlook International Aviation Fuel Conference and Exhibition Christof Ruehl, Chief Economist, BP p.l.c. Beijing, April 2012.

Global Economic and Energy Outlook International Aviation Fuel Conference and Exhibition Christof Ruehl, Chief Economist, BP p.l.c. Beijing, April 2012.
The Republic of Poland and Russian Federation. Russia.

The Republic of Poland and Russian Federation. Russia.
Exports as % of country’s GDP Match the country with its exports: 12%, 13%, 20%, 37%, 50%, 108% Germany, Japan, U.S., France, Hungary, Hong Kong.

Exports as % of country’s GDP Match the country with its exports: 12%, 13%, 20%, 37%, 50%, 108% Germany, Japan, U.S., France, Hungary, Hong Kong.
Cotton Economic Outlook National Cotton Council Mid-Year Board Meeting July 9-12, 2006.

Cotton Economic Outlook National Cotton Council Mid-Year Board Meeting July 9-12, 2006.
Overview of the Global Economy Robert Culver CEO & President, Mass Development January 20, 2010 Open Classroom: International Economy, Security and Culture.

Overview of the Global Economy Robert Culver CEO & President, Mass Development January 20, 2010 Open Classroom: International Economy, Security and Culture.
Copyright© 2008 South-Western, a part of Cengage Learning. All rights reserved. CHAPTER 1 Introduction to International Macroeconomics.

Copyright© 2008 South-Western, a part of Cengage Learning. All rights reserved. CHAPTER 1 Introduction to International Macroeconomics.
Chinese Financing of the United States Brad Setser Roubini Global Economics and the Global Economic Governance Programme, University College, Oxford.

Chinese Financing of the United States Brad Setser Roubini Global Economics and the Global Economic Governance Programme, University College, Oxford.
2005 and 2006. Real GDP Growth in the past 10 years Average 3.3% 1.0% 8.4% 3.1%

2005 and Real GDP Growth in the past 10 years Average 3.3% 1.0% 8.4% 3.1%
International Comparison. Economy 2 Basic Facts Country Population, million (2011) Currency GDP, billion $ (2011) GDP per capita (PPP), $ (2011) Corporate.

International Comparison. Economy 2 Basic Facts Country Population, million (2011) Currency GDP, billion $ (2011) GDP per capita (PPP), $ (2011) Corporate.
Figure 14.1 Economic Growth in the ADE/ASR model.

Figure 14.1 Economic Growth in the ADE/ASR model.
The External Environment for Developing Countries January 2010 The World Bank Development Economics Prospects Group.

The External Environment for Developing Countries January 2010 The World Bank Development Economics Prospects Group.
Jason Henderson Vice President and Branch Executive Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City – Omaha Branch www.kansascityfed.org/omaha June 16, 2009 The views.

Jason Henderson Vice President and Branch Executive Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City – Omaha Branch June 16, 2009 The views.
Global Development Finance 2007 The Globalization of Corporate Finance in Developing Countries May, 2007 T H E W O R L D B A N K.

Global Development Finance 2007 The Globalization of Corporate Finance in Developing Countries May, 2007 T H E W O R L D B A N K.
The Global Economic Environment

The Global Economic Environment
The External Environment for Developing Countries October 2009 The World Bank Development Economics Prospects Group.

The External Environment for Developing Countries October 2009 The World Bank Development Economics Prospects Group.
Outlook For Financial Markets And Investment Strategy

Outlook For Financial Markets And Investment Strategy
TEKS 8C: Calculate percent composition and empirical and molecular formulas. Postwar Rebuilding and Growth.

TEKS 8C: Calculate percent composition and empirical and molecular formulas. Postwar Rebuilding and Growth.
Global Economic Outlook June 2009. Good News.

Global Economic Outlook June Good News.
11 Reference Material 9 June 2008. 2 The World’s CO2 Emissions (Current Trends) The World’s CO2 Emissions from Fuel Combustion Source:International Energy.

11 Reference Material 9 June The World’s CO2 Emissions (Current Trends) The World’s CO2 Emissions from Fuel Combustion Source:International Energy.

Similar presentations

Ads by Google