1. Novel approaches to modelling floods: data-driven and hybrid modelling, managing risk and uncertainty [ FLOODsite FP6 project] UNESCO-IHE Institute for Water Education, Delft (member of NCR, Netherlands) Prof. R.K. Price Dr. D.P. Solomatine (presenting, sol@ihe.nl ) www.ihe.nl/hi

2. EU-FP6: Floods. IHE-Delft. 2 Modelling n Physically-based modelling: –integrated meteorological, reservoir control, rural and urban catchment runoff, channel-flood plain routing, estuary and coastal water surges –integrated monitoring and modelling for reliable updating n Novel complementary approaches: data-driven modelling (computational intelligence) –flood forecasting using artificial neural networks –remote sensing images classification using Kohonen neural networks and support vector machines –pattern recognition of radar images for rainfall forecasting n Hybrid modelling in integrated modelling frameworks –combination of different modelling paradigms

3. EU-FP6: Floods. IHE-Delft. 3 Knowledge transfer n Platform-based community of practice focussed on best practices and incorporating dynamic knowledge bases with case studies n Modelling systems laboratory accessible by Internet n Continuing professional development including courses on Flood management and modelling: –combination of e-learning and face-to-face –training based on extensive use of modelling tools –licensing of modelling practitioners

4. EU-FP6: Floods. IHE-Delft. 4 UNSECO-IHE: research group in Hydroinformatics n 4 lecturers and researchers, all with PhD titles n 3 PhD students n 120 publications in the last 5 years n main area of expertise: novel approaches in water-related modelling, including data mining and computational intelligence n experience in 6 EU projects during the last 5 years: –TELEFLEUR (Flood emergencies in urban areas) –ELTRAMOS - Electronic trading of modelling services and assets for engineering small and medium enterprises and institutes –ETNET 21 ENVIRONMENT-WATER - European Thematic Network of Education and Training for Environment-Water –OSIRIS - Operational Solutions for the Management of Inundation Risks in the Information Society –projects related to education

5. EU-FP6: Floods. IHE-Delft. 5 OSIRIS: Operational Solutions for the Management of Inundation Risks in the Information Society n Main objectives: –Increase awareness –Efficient protection measures –Improve quality of information and modelling –Access to information n Results oriented towards: –Basin managers –Emergency centres –Concerned citizens End User Sites Members: SOGREAH (France), IMWM (Poland), BTUC (Germany), Italy and others. IHE’s main contribution: n n Quality of information and modelling: uncertainty management

6. EU-FP6: Floods. IHE-Delft. 6 Uncertainty Issues to be Addressed n Quantitative and Qualitative uncertainty Characterization: Methods for representation and propagation: n n Probability theory-based (quantitative uncertainty) n n Fuzzy set theory-based (qualitative uncertainty) Future vision: n n Quantitative/qualitative concept to risk quantification n n Develop generic tool that integrates both approaches n n Uncertainty/risk based warning systems

7. EU-FP6: Floods. IHE-Delft. 7 Architecture of a hydroinformatics system for flood warning (EU TELEFLEUR project)

8. EU-FP6: Floods. IHE-Delft. 8 TELEFLEUR project: interface to the flood warning DSS

9. EU-FP6: Floods. IHE-Delft. 9 Using computational intelligence (machine learning) in flood forecasting Hidden layer a ij Inputs x 1 x 2 x 3 x n Outputs y1y1 y2y2 y3y3 ymym u 1 x u s b jk weights (w. x) + b = 0 (w. x) + b < 0 (w. x) + b > 0 x1x1 x2x2 support vector machines neural networks committee machines

10. EU-FP6: Floods. IHE-Delft. 10 Experience in software development and integration neural network modelling system

11. EU-FP6: Floods. IHE-Delft. 11 We would like to complement partners that: n have expertise in flood-related issues n recognise the importance of new approaches to modelling n are fun to work with