1. Soybean Situation &Outlook Chuck Danehower Extension Specialist – Farm Management

2. What Affects the Soybean Market? U.S. Dollar

3. 77.27 9.19

5. What Affects the Soybean Market? U.S. Dollar Crude Oil

6. 66.95 9.19

8. What Affects the Soybean Market? U.S. Dollar Crude Oil U.S. & World Economic Health –Slow Ag news days market follows Dow

9. 9789 9.19

10. What Affects the Soybean Market? U.S. Dollar Crude Oil U.S. & World Economic Health –Slow Ag news days market follows Dow Index and Commodity Funds

12. What Affects the Soybean Market? U.S. Dollar Crude Oil U.S. & World Economic Health Index and Commodity Funds Weather –Argentina – worst drought in 50 years

15. What Affects the Soybean Market? U.S. Dollar Crude Oil U.S. & World Economic Health Index and Commodity Funds Weather –Argentina – worst drought in 50 years –How did wet Spring affect acres & yields? Farmers have said it was the worse planting season ever experienced.

18. What Affects the Soybean Market? U.S. Dollar Crude Oil U.S. & World Economic Health Index and Commodity Funds Weather –Argentina – worst drought in 50 years –How did wet Spring affect acres & yields? –Frost concerns have added support to prices

19. Percent Dropping Leaves Sept. 27/5 Yr. Avg. 76% 84% 40% 56% 41% 77% 81% 84% 63% 81% 76% 83% 73% 85% 86% 90% 74% 80% 58% 69% Nationwide 63% 77% Freeze By Yield Loss R5 65% R6 37% R7 11% R8 0%

21. Soybeans for Beans, Area Harvested, Yield, Selected States, Forecasted September 1, 2009 StateAcres(1,000)200920085 yr. Avg. AL44037.035.028.8 AR3,35038.038.036.4 GA48034.030.028.4 IL9,05044.047.047.0 IN5,48043.045.048.3 IA9,73052.046.050.0 KS3,50040.037.036.0 KY1,43042.034.038.5 LA1,00035.033.035.8 MI1,99038.037.039.9 MN7,10040.038.040.7 MS2,17041.040.036.1 MO5,35042.038.039.1 NE4,65051.046.548.4 NC1,76034.033.029.6

22. Soybeans for Beans, Area Harvested, Yield, Selected States, Forecasted September 1, 2009 StateAcres(1,000)200920085 yr. Avg. ND4,00030.028.030.9 OH4,58047.036.044.4 SC59027.032.025.4 SD4,30039.034.035.8 TN1,56040.034.034.2 TX21025.024.028.7 VA59035.032.032.0 WI1,63039.035.039.6 US76,76742.339.641.9

24. Soybean Production, Ending Stocks, and Price, 1993-2009

25. U.S. Soybean Oil 09/10 P 08/09 E07/08 Million pounds Beg. Stocks 3,100 2,485 3,085 Production19,18018,91520,580 Imports 75 100 65 Supply, Total22,35521,50023,730 Domestic16,50016,20016,200 For methy ester 2,100 1,850 3,245 Exports 3,250 2,200 2,911 Use, total19,75018,40021,246 Ending Stocks 2,605 3,100 2,485 Average Price (c/lb) 32.00 – 36.00 32.25 52.03

26. 33.24

27. U.S. Soybean Meal 09/10 P 08/09 E07/08 Thousand short tons Beg. Stocks 300 294 343 Production40,23539,45642,284 Imports 165 100 141 Supply, Total40,70039,85042,768 Domestic30,80030,75033,232 Exports 9,600 8,800 9,242 Use, total40,40039,55042,474 Ending Stocks 300 300 294 Average Price ($/s.t.) 280 330335.94

28. 288.50

29. Soybeans ---Supply/Demand --- 2008/09 2009/10 Bearish USDA ExpectedBullish Beginning Stocks(MB)205110 Acres (MA Planted)75.777.7 Acres (MA Harvested)74.676.8 76.3 Yield39.643.342.341.3 Imports1510 Supply(M. Bu)3179345033663272 Use: Crushing1660 1690 Exports128012501280 Seed, Feed129170175 Ending Stocks110370220127 Projected Price$10.00$7.75$9.10$10.00 Stocks/Use3.6%12.0%7.0%4.0%

30. U.S. Soybean Ending Stocks and Price, 1993-2009

31. Foreign Production WASDE-474 September 11, 2009 Argentina Billion bushels 09/10 P08/09 E07/08 Beg. Stocks.560.800.830 Production1.873 1.1761.698 Exports.356.219.508 Total Domestic Use1.7211.4751.837 Ending Stocks.731.560.800

32. Foreign Production WASDE-474 September 11, 2009 Brazil Billion bushels 09/10 P08/09 E07/08 Beg. Stocks.435.694.668 Production2.278 2.0942.241 Exports.898 1.078.932 Total Domestic Use2.1712.3562.219 Ending Stocks.547.435.694

33. Foreign Production WASDE-474 September 11, 2009 China Billion bushels 09/10 P08/09 E07/08 Beg. Stocks.303.156.099 Production.551.588.514 Imports 1.415 1.462 1.390 Total Use (includes exports) 1.9901.8861.831 Ending Stocks.279.303.156 China has committed to buy 430 million bushels of U.S. soybeans. This is 62% of total imports from U.S. and 30% of total imports.

34. World Supply & Demand WASDE-474 September 11, 2009 Billion bushels 09/10 P08/09 E07/08 Beg. Stocks 1.4781.9442.311 Production 8.9637.742 8.125 Imports 2.757 2.732 2.872 Total Domestic Use 8.5118.1368.442 Exports 2.8312.8042.921 Ending Stocks 1.857 1.478 1.944

35. U.S. & Foreign Soybean Ending Stocks, 1996-2009

36. 9.1925

37. Summary & Observations Outside influences are affecting the market. Crop is later than normal, yields uncertain. Next USDA S & D Report – October 8, 2009 –Will there be an acreage surprise? Strong Chinese demand, will it continue? Acreage estimates for 2010 Soybean/corn ratio Weekly Comments –http://economics.ag.utk.edu/cropcomm.htmlhttp://economics.ag.utk.edu/cropcomm.html http://economics.ag.utk.edu/careers.html