1. VALIDATION OF CLIMATE- BASED LAKE OKEECHOBEE NET INFLOW OUTLOOKS LONINO Paul Trimble Jayantha Obeysekera Ph.D., P.E., D.WRE Jayantha Obeysekera Ph.D., P.E., D.WRE South Florida Water Management District

2. Lake Okeechobee is a Regional Multiple Purpose Water Resource In lake Environment & Recreational Use

3. Regional Hydrologic System of South Florida  Water Supply AgricultureAgriculture UrbanUrban Natural SystemsNatural Systems  Flood Protection  Environmental and Ecosystem Preservation and Restoration  Lake Okeechobee Littoral Zone  Caloosahatchee, and St Lucie Estuaries  Everglades Hydroperiod Restoration  Recreational

4. KissimmeeKissimmee Fisheating Creek (Uncontrolled) & C-5 Fisheating Creek (Uncontrolled) & C-5 Lake Okeechobee Inflows & Outflows LakeOkeechobee Nubbin Slough Taylor Crk C-41A, C-40 & C-41 C-41A, C-40 & C-41 S-308 St Lucie may inflow if Lake is < 14.5 S-308 St Lucie may inflow if Lake is < 14.5 S-2 & S-3 under large rainfall may pump to Lake may pump to Lake S-2 & S-3 under large rainfall may pump to Lake may pump to Lake S-135S-135 Inflow capacity exceeds outflow capacity. S-77S-77 S-354S-354 C-10C-10 S-351S-351 S-352S-352 Lake Okeechobee's drainage basin covers more than 4,600 square miles 80% East & West 20% South

5. Flood Control Water Shortage Lake Okeechobee Management Zones (Rule Curves)

7. Potential Predictors of Lake Okeechobee Net Inflow  Antecedent Conditions of the Tributary Basins  El Nino/La Nina  Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation  North Atlantic Oscillation  Pacific Decadal Oscillation  Atlantic Meridional Mode  Extent of the Atlantic Warm pool  Various Scales of Solar Activity

8. Lake Okeechobee Net Inflow Outlook (LONINO)  Estimation of the change in lake stage over the next 6 months (Seasonal Forecast) and 7-12 months (Multi- seasonal Forecast)  Forecasts are part of WSE decision- making process

9. Seasonal Forecast  Always 6-months in duration  Methods: For Development of WSE: For Development of WSE: Artificial Neural Network ModelingArtificial Neural Network Modeling For Application For Application Croley’s methodCroley’s method HSM ExperimentalHSM Experimental AMO/ENSO SubsamplingAMO/ENSO Subsampling  CPC climate forecasts applied to Lake Inflow time series

10. Multi-Seasonal Forecasts  Multi-season: Remainder of current season + next season. Duration:  For Development of WSE: Neural Network based seasonal forecasts + forecasts for the remaining months based on ENSO in dry season, and AMO/PDO in wet season Neural Network based seasonal forecasts + forecasts for the remaining months based on ENSO in dry season, and AMO/PDO in wet season  Application Croley Croley HSM Experimental HSM Experimental AMO/ENSO Subsampling AMO/ENSO Subsampling MayJuneJulyAugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarApr 121110987121110987

12. (Next Six Months)

16. Multi-Objective Analysis for Climate Based Operational Guidelines Estuaries Water Supply Flood Protection Lake Okeechobee Littoral Zone Everglades Everglades Hydro-pattern Hydro-pattern Water Level Based Includes Climate Based