1. Ukraine SWOT Analysis 29 Jan 2008 Tom Gill, Seminar 1

2. Ukrainian Facts and Figures  Geography –600K Sq KM, rolling plains, Carpathians, Crimean –Borders Bel, Rus, Rom, Mol, Pol, Slo, Hun  Demographics –Pop 46M, 62/73, Declining growth –78% Ethnic Ukrainian, 17% Russian –Main Cities Kiev, Lvov, Odessa  Governance –Parliamentary Presidential Govt –Viktor Yuschenko, Yulia Tymoshenko –Yuschenko leads coalition govt, next elections 2009  Military –13 th largest, 126 th best funded, Conscript based

4. Ukrainian Facts and Figures  Geography –600K Sq KM, rolling plains, Carpathians, Crimean –Borders Bel, Rus, Rom, Mol, Pol, Slo, Hun  Demographics –Pop 46M, 62/73, Declining growth –78% Ethnic Ukrainian, 17% Russian –Main Cities Kiev, Lvov, Odessa  Governance –Parliamentary Presidential Govt –Viktor Yuschenko, Yulia Tymoshenko –Yuschenko leads coalition govt, next elections 2009  Military –13 th largest, 126 th best funded, Conscript based

5. Ukrainian Strengths  Agricultural Self Reliance –Self-sufficiency for food, but at high prices –Grain Exporter, 60% Arable Land, rich soil  Maritime Access  Rich in Mineral resources –30% of world’s Mn, huge Ti/Fe/Coal reserves  Economic Growth –Attractive to financial sector –Stock Market growth 110% in 2007

6. Ukrainian Weaknesses  Divided Parliament –Orange Revolution Promise Unfulfilled –Pro-western factions maintaining slight majority  Energy Dependence on Russia –Vital Gas pipeline corridor to Europe –Nuclear Power produces 40% of Electricity  Agricultural Industry Unreformed –Corruption and Infrastructure Issues

7. Ukrainian Opportunities  Current regime looking towards Europe –NATO membership remains a goal –Tied to Mil reform and elimination of corruption –Plan on hold, not yet a MAP invitee  Unity of Vision –Both sides realize potential of a United, independent Ukraine with economic vitality  EU membership? –EU parliament dangles the carrot, ties membership to disentanglement of economic from political processes

8. Threats to The Ukraine  Current regime looking towards Europe –Russia reluctant to see relationship wither –Can apply pressure through ener/econ policies  Oil and Gas Utility near bankruptcy –PM Tymoshenko’s most pressing problem  Chernobyl Legacy –Widely varying impact assessments –Greenpeace; 230K deaths so far, 100K to come –IACR; total of 16K attributable deaths thru 2056

9. In Summary  Ukraine’s Future? –Progress slow and steady –Difficult balancing act  Continued reform leads to increased Euro- Atlantic confidence –Stagnation will only marginalize a nation with considerable natural and national potential