1. Waves of Democracy
Ideas of Samuel P. Huntington

2. The First “Long” Wave
1820s widened the suffrage in U.S. to include working class white males.
This expansion of the electorate continued through 1920 when women were extended the right to vote in the U.S.
In 1926 there were 29 democracies

3. First Reverse Wave
In 1922, following the coming to power of Mussolini in Italy, a number of countries moved away from democratic rule.
Hitler came to power through the elections of 1932 and 1933 in the Weimar Republic
By 1932 there were only 12 democracies.

4. Post World War II
The second wave of democratization reached its zenith in 1962 with 36 democracies.
The second reverse wave occurred between 1960 and 1975 and reduced the number of democracies to 30.

5. The 1980s and the third wave: five factors
Deepening legitimacy problems with existing authoritarian regimes
Global economic growth taking off in the 1960s
Shift in doctrine of Catholic Church through the Second Vatican Council of causing an ideological shift among church leaders

6. External Actors
Changes in policies of external actors such as the European Community, the United States, and the Soviet Union.
The collapse of the Soviet Union caused a dramatic change in global power manipulations and authoritarian regime support

7. Snowballing
Demonstration, stimulation, and contagion across “ripe” populaces
The transformation of Eastern Europe following the collapse of the Soviet Union
African democratic transitions
Snowballing works as a trigger only if the conditions favorable to democracy exist in a country

8. The third reverse wave: contributing factors
Weakness of democratic values among key elite groups and the general public
Severe economic setbacks
Social and political polarization caused by leftist governments
Exclusion of populist, leftist, and lower-class groups from power by conservative groups

9. Additional factors
Breakdown of law and order from terrorism or insurgency
Intervention of conquest by nondemocratic foreign power
Reverse snowballing

10. Obstacles to Democratization
Home-grown Marxist-Leninist regimes
Continuation of personal dictatorships, military regimes, one-party systems
Radical Islam
The absence of experience with democracy

11. Leadership changes
Some form of leadership change within authoritarian systems typically precede democratization
Weakness in democratic values among aged leadership usually continues throughout the lives of the autocratic leadership