1. The Southern Ocean and Climate: What did we learn during WOCE? Steve Rintoul CSIRO Marine Research and Antarctic CRC Australia

2. Pre-WOCE view of the ACC/SO 2 circumpolar fronts wind-driven, in (flat-bottom) Sverdrup balance bottom form stress balances wind? Drake Passage transport = 134±13 Sv transport variability is barotropic no net meridional flow through Drake Passage gap poleward eddy heat flux in Drake Passage, SE NZ zonal circulation independent of meridional circulation water masses exported to lower latitudes, but rates and mechanisms unknown

3. Progress in the “WOCE era” remote sensing (SST, SSH) new instruments (e.g. ALACE floats) observations outside of Drake Passage improved model realism/resolution/diagnostics air-sea flux estimates from reanalyses advances in dynamical understanding

4. Orsi, 2002 10,000 stations south of 25S since 1990

7. Oxygen on 27.4

9. 4-year mean SST gradient from ATSR reveals multiple filaments and branches, which merge and split. Rintoul, Hughes and Olbers 2001

10. Tracking ACC fronts using satellite altimetry Careful comparison of hydrography and absolute sea surface height maps shows each frontal branch corresponds to a particular SSH contour. We can use altimetry to track fronts, every 10 days since 1992. Sokolov and Rintoul, JMS, 2002

11. SAF: 3 branches, merge near 140E, eddy-rich downstream of change in orientation of SEIR. PF: 2 branches, separated by >500 km at SR3, merge after crossing ridge crest. PF, SACCF: strong equatorward deflection over ridge. Narrow meander envelopes near ridge.

12. ACC Transport Repeat sections show heat transport south of Australia varies by 0.6 x 10 15 W (relative to 0  C). Variability is large (e.g. relative to north-south heat flux in Indian and Pacific.) Climate impact? Rintoul and Sokolov, JGR, 2001

13. Cunningham et al., JGR, 2002 Drake Passage transport: 136  8.5 Sv

15. ACC transport  500 billion Lone Stars/sec www.mylifeisbeer.com

16. Rintoul and Sokolov, 2001; Cunningham et al., JGR, 2002 ACC transport in neutral density layers Australia (SR3) color; Drake Passage (SR1) black

17. The tight relationship between temperature at 650 m and the baroclinic transport streamfunction can be used to determine transport (above 2500 m) from temperature msmts. alone. Rintoul, Sokolov and Church, JGR, 2002

18. Net baroclinic transport time series from XBT data (squares) and CTD data (diamonds)

19. Net baroclinic transport south of Australia (1993-2000) Transport estimated from altimeter (thin line), low-passed (thick blue line). Empirical relationship between surface height and transport fn used to estimate transport. Continuous record from altimeter shows XBT time series is aliased. Rintoul, Sokolov, Church, 2002

20. “Streamwise” average of absolute velocity of Subantarctic Front: Total transport = 116 Sv; barotropic = 16 Sv. Phillips and Rintoul, JPO, 2002

21. Eddy heat flux Poleward eddy heat flux across SAF south of Australia is larger than previously measured elsewhere in the Southern Ocean. Phillips and Rintoul, JPO, 2000

22. Rintoul, Hughes and Olbers 2001 Bottom pressure torque (color); barotropic streamfn (black) Is the ACC in Sverdup balance? ß  x =  p b   H +  +  F

23. -fV 1 = -  ' 1 p' 1x +  o - R 1 -fV 2 =  ' 1 p' 1x -  ' 2 p' 2x - R 2 -fV 3 =  ' 2 p' 2x - hp bx - R 3 V = net meridional volume flux  o = wind stress  = layer thicknessp = pressure R = Reynolds stress divergencep b = bottom pressure Steady, zonally-integrated momentum balance: Surface (includes Ekman) “unblocked” layer “blocked” layer 11 22 33

24. V 1 = -  o /f V 2 = 0 V 3 = hp bx /f =  o /f  Overall balance of zonal momentum is between wind stress and bottom form stress. No interfacial form stress: Ekman transport in surface layer No transport in “unblocked” layer Deep geostrophic flow balances Ekman

25. Adding the three equations and using fact that mass is conserved (  (V i ) = 0):  o = hp bx  Again, overall balance of zonal momentum is between wind stress and bottom form stress. Interfacial form stress  0:

26.  o =  ' i p' ix = hp bx  Wind stress = interfacial form stress = bottom form stress Note that both standing and transient eddies contribute to interfacial form stress. Adiabatic flow (V i = 0):

27.  z(  ' i p' ix )  0 Mixing and surface buoyancy fluxes drive mass exchange between layers, so V i = net diapycnal exchange  0. Diabatic flow (V i  0):  Divergence of interfacial form stress drives meridional flow in the unblocked layer.  Buoyancy forcing, eddy stresses, and meridional flow are intimately linked to the zonal momentum balance.

28. What controls the transport of the ACC? Observations and a variety of models suggest ACC transport is a function of: –  n (n = 0-1?) –  x  –buoyancy flux –topographic interactions –baroclinic instability / eddy fluxes (Gent, Tansley, D. Marshall, J. Marshall, Karsten, Olbers, Rintoul, Sokolov, Gille, Gnanadesikan, Hallberg, …)

29. Schmitz (1996)

31. Orsi et al., 1999

32. Orsi et al., JGR, 2002 CFC inventory: 8 Sv AABW; 21 Sv total input to deep ocean

34. SO Overturning By including the water mass transformations driven by air-sea fluxes, we can quantify the overturning circulation for the first time. vigorous deep cell weak upwelling through the thermocline NADW global cell closed by DW  IW conversion in SO

35. Speer et al., 2000; Sloyan and Rintoul, JPO, 2001 34 52 46 4 22 eddy mass flux

36. Models also suggest the NADW overturning cell is closed by upwelling and water mass transformation in the SO. Döös and Coward (1997)

37. 2530 10 13 4 8 8 Formation, circulation and consumption of intermediate and thermocline waters. Sloyan and Rintoul (2001) 11

38. Speich et al., GRL, 2001 Upper branch of the global OTC “cold” = 6.5 Sv “warm” = 5.3 Sv “cool” = 3.1 Sv

39. Wong et al., 1999 Intermediate depth waters in both hemispheres have become fresher in recent decades.

40. Banks et al., GRL, 2000 Climate models show similar response; suggest strongest ocean climate change signal in SO.

41. Rintoul and England, JPO, 2002 Observations south of Australia show large variability in mode water properties from year-to-year, driven by changes in cross-frontal Ekman transport (not air-sea fluxes). Circles show T-S properties of SAMW south of Tasmania; size of dot is proportional to strength of mode. Triangles and squares are data from 1968 and 1978.

43. Warming of the Southern Ocean Gille, Science, 2002

44. Warming of Weddell Sea Warm Deep Water Warm Deep Water flowing into and out of the Weddell Sea has warmed by about 0.3C since the mid-1970’s. (Robertson et al., 2002)

45. Climate models suggest SO overturning will slow down as a result of global warming. Warming and freshening increases the high latitude stratification, shutting down AABW formation. Is this result realistic? Can we observe the change in stratification? Hirst (1999)

46. The Southern Ocean is the largest zonally- integrated sink of anthropogenic CO 2. Sabine et al., 2002

47. Massom et al., 2001

48. Thompson and Solomon, Science, 2002 Southern Annular Mode/Antarctic Oscillation

49. Antarctic Circumpolar Wave White and Peterson, 1996

50. Air temperatureSea ice extent SLP: El NinoSLP: La Nina Antarctic Dipole Subtracting May composites for El Nino and La Nina events reveals the impact of ENSO on the Southern Ocean. Response consists of a dipole with centres in the Atlantic and Pacific sectors, driven by the PSA teleconnection. (Yuan, 2001).

51. Modes of variability: local or remote forcing? ocean response? feedback? coupled? regional climate impact?

52. New view of the ACC/SO multiple filaments, which split and merge bottom pressure torque important (i.e. not in flat-bottom Sverdrup balance) transport = f ( ,  x , buoyancy forcing, topography) zonal and meridional circulations intimately linked eddies carry mass and heat poleward across Drake Passage gap quantified rate and mechanisms of water mass formation water mass transformation in SO closes overturning cells observed change at all depths identified modes of variability

53. Science questions Strength, variability and sensitivity of SO overturning? Dynamics and climate impact of SH atmosphere, ocean, ice variability? How much mixing takes place in the Southern Ocean? Does the SO gain or lose heat and freshwater? Impact of SO variability (low latitudes, regional climate, global overturning)?

54. Conclusions We have made remarkable progress in understanding the Southern Ocean during the “WOCE era.” The Southern Ocean strongly influences regional and global climate, and is sensitive to change. The prospects for further progress are good. We can now identify specific hypotheses and design observing systems and models to test them.

57. A similar relationship can be used to determine transport for satellite measurements of sea surface height. Relationship between surface dynamic height and transport function, determined from the 6 CTD sections.

58. A test of how well baroclinic transport can be estimated from altimeter data. Residuals are typically small (less than 5 Sv). Demonstrates most of altimeter signal is due to changes in baroclinic structure above 2500 m.