1. Kernobsttag Netto-Markendiscount Pipfruit - Outlook season 2012/13 Helwig Schwartau, AMI

2. Kernobsttag Netto-Markendiscount EU-27: First time, more apples in the East, less in the West  2012 = One of the lowest production of the last years, but…  Distribution of regions not comparable with 2007 and 2010  EU-15 with very small production, particular in the South  NMS expected 3,87 Mio t, only more ‘08 (4,5 Mio. t)  Relaxed autumn, changeing trading flow, less table apples than 2007 and 2010 ( 1.000 t)

3. Kernobsttag Netto-Markendiscount EU-27: Apple harvest for freshmarket  The lowest volumen for freshmarket of the last years???  More second qualities for storage?  Volume with hail damage?  Effect of price level for processing A very high price level

4. Kernobsttag Netto-Markendiscount Sale prices P.O. South Tyrol, Gala table apples, class I 70-75mm

5. Kernobsttag Netto-Markendiscount Western Europe : Production bicolour apples  Braeburn: Relaxed season France/Italy = 147.000 t (-28%)  Gala: -13% than 2011 Hold up market share in North Africa/ Middle East?  Jonagold: All countries with lower crop. Concentrated sales in Western Europe, no stress till february  Elstar: Netherland -33% than last year. Less exports to Germany.

6. Kernobsttag Netto-Markendiscount EU apple exports to North Africa and Middle East (Aug. till April) France Italy Spain 1.000 tons

7. Kernobsttag Netto-Markendiscount Poland: Apple exports (Aug.- April) In 1.000 t‘08/09‘09/10‘10/11‘11/12 Total714611348655 EU-27 Extra502503310590 EU-27 Intra2121083865 Russia230231196356 Ukraine2252206392 Kazakhstan7191322 Belarus322734116 Baltic1062918 S. East Europ6141826 EU-1546381221 UK3524 Scandinavia171679 Germany1614410 Good season 2011/12 Strong investment (75% subvention) Bigger apple harvest in the future (above 3 Mio. t ?) Planting trends (20% Idared) targeted to the east markets

8. Kernobsttag Netto-Markendiscount Russia: apples imports 2011/12 by month (Competition Poland/ GUS/ EU15)

9. Kernobsttag Netto-Markendiscount Processing apples

10. Kernobsttag Netto-Markendiscount Germany – consumption apple juice (GfK) Mio. litre

11. Kernobsttag Netto-Markendiscount EU-27: Apple harvest for processing  AJC stocks cleared! Price on a relativ high level  In Western Europe less crop the smallest crop of the last years  German - outside market production 100.000 t lower than last year  Poland bigger crop, more hail, shap processing increasing 10% than 2011? EUR/100kg ?

12. Kernobsttag Netto-Markendiscount Europe: Price development for AJC since February 2007 2007 2012

13. Kernobsttag Netto-Markendiscount Processing apple price development

14. Kernobsttag Netto-Markendiscount Apples – Global trading

15. Kernobsttag Netto-Markendiscount Import markets for apples in the world, trading South Hemisphere, till July (1.000 tons) 2012 (red graphic column), 2011 and 2010 Europe Russia Asia North Am. Africa/ Mid.East Lat. America Worldwide

16. Kernobsttag Netto-Markendiscount EU-27: Imports overseas apples (till July) Chile: Worldwide exports 606.000 t, 75.000 t less s than year New Zealand: More exports to Asia (+10%), UK the same, EU Continent decrease (-25%) South Africa: The same volume, but 7.000 t more to UK, less to continent Argentina: Worldwide the smallest volumes of the last years Brazil: More export than 2011, particular UK Source: AMI 1.000 t

17. Kernobsttag Netto-Markendiscount New Zealand: Apple export to Asia increase, till July (1.000 t) 1.000 t2007200920112012 Asia38516979 EU cont.1081099973 UK54413839 America37382830 M. East510913 Total246254256246 2012 - Export by varieties Constant worldwide export volume, but….  Strong focus to Asia  EU – only UK stable, but…  Middle East more interesting *31 *20 *21 *34 *41 (* Last year)

18. Kernobsttag Netto-Markendiscount South Africa – Exports per marktet segment (%) 2011 Average price (Rand/ t)

19. Kernobsttag Netto-Markendiscount Chile: Worldwide apple export (1.000 t) Europe/Russia North A. Asia M. East Latin A. Global export 2012 = 606.000 t 2011 = 682.000 t 2010 = 661.000 t 2009 = 573.000 t

20. Kernobsttag Netto-Markendiscount Destination20082009201020112011 main market Total exports700808780789Asia 329 (‘08 = 172) Asia East8895110131Taiw. 68/ Hongk. 57 Asia South East6691102121Indonesia 60 Asia South18483877India 72 Middle East45816462VAE 28/ Saudi A. 20 South America14191229 North./Latin Am.341347340283Mexico 168 EU40322411 Total imports154151188138 Chile928712286 New Zealand32444132 USA: apples exports/ imports (1.000 t)

21. Kernobsttag Netto-Markendiscount High price level for pears

22. Kernobsttag Netto-Markendiscount EU 27: Pear crop in the last 10 years In tons

23. Kernobsttag Netto-Markendiscount Market balance for pears in EU-27 1.000 t2009/102010/112011/12f2012/13f Market production2.6022.2752.6291.969 + Import EU 1) 275309235330 - Export EU 1) 311345454300 = Consumption 2) 2.5662.2392.4101.999 Per capita (kg)5,14,54,84,0 Note: 1) 1.7. - 30.6. - 2) Without market losses, Source: AMI / EUROSTAT - f = forecast Bad argent. crop with less exports to Europe. Export 100.000 t more than last year. Increasing Russia, North Africa, Brazil.

24. Kernobsttag Netto-Markendiscount Pears: Netherlands Veilinge prices für Conference class I, 65-75mm

25. Kernobsttag Netto-Markendiscount Russia: Import pears (July – May) Only slowly increasing imports, 2011/12 = 384.000 t 2010/11 = 375.000 t 2009/10 = 355.000 t 2008/09 = 290.000 t More exports from EU-15 at the expense of overseas Argentina -20% pears than last two years (till May) 1.000 t EU-27 Trend

26. Kernobsttag Netto-Markendiscount EU pear exports to Asia, North Africa S. America and Middle East (Aug. till April) NL/BEL Spain Italy 1.000 tons France ‘11/12 total 500 t Brazil Import Aug-Dec Italy 1.600 t

27. Kernobsttag Netto-Markendiscount EU-27: Imports overseas pears 2012 = 234.000 t overseas pears arrived in Europe 75.000 t (-25%) less than 2011 Chile unchanged South Africa changed to other markets Argentina less to Europe, other marktes unchanged EU imports vs. 2011 Williams -45%, Packhams -22%, A. Fetel 8%, Forelle +1% 1.000 t

28. Kernobsttag Netto-Markendiscount Import markets for pears in the world, trading South Hemisphere, till July (1.000 tons) 2012 (red graphic column), 2011/ 2010/2009 Europe Russia Asia North Am. Africa/Mid.East Lat. America Worldwide

29. Kernobsttag Netto-Markendiscount South Africa: Pear export till July (in tons) Asia M. East Africa Export Asia/Africa 2012 = 42.500 t 2011 = 36.400 t 2010 = 28.100 t 2009 = 19.554 t

30. Kernobsttag Netto-Markendiscount Thanks a lot for your attention. HELWIG SCHWARTAU, AMI, BÜRO HAMBURG Helwig.Schwartau@AMI-informiert.de +49 (0)40-6505595-0