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Calgary Commercial Movement Model Kevin Stefan, City of Calgary J.D. Hunt, University of Calgary Prepared for the 17th International EMME/2 Conference.

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Presentation on theme: "Calgary Commercial Movement Model Kevin Stefan, City of Calgary J.D. Hunt, University of Calgary Prepared for the 17th International EMME/2 Conference."— Presentation transcript:

1 Calgary Commercial Movement Model Kevin Stefan, City of Calgary J.D. Hunt, University of Calgary Prepared for the 17th International EMME/2 Conference Calgary, Alberta, Canada October 22-24, 2003

2 Calgary Commercial Movement Model Nature of Commercial Movement Basic properties Tour-based framework Model Structure Choice set tree Interface with RTM Java microsimulation Iterative processes

3 Why a Commercial Model? Represent all users of transportation systems Consumer surplus measures Emissions Volumes for design and microsimulation base Represent concerns and needs of business community

4 Commodity Flow Survey 24-hour business establishment travel diary Company information Industry, employees Fleet information Configuration, ownership, GVW Information at each stop made by each vehicle Location, time, purpose Type, amount and value of goods carried / services performed

5 Weekday Vehicle Trips 12%

6 Weekday Vehicle Trips

7 Impact of Commercial Vehicles Higher value of time Travel concentrated in some areas Central Business District Industrial areas Commercial areas Increased influence in many factors Emissions Congestion and vehicle flow Pavement design

8 Commercial Fleet Light Heavy Medium Percentages of vehicle trips

9 Stop Purpose

10 Tour-based Framework Originated in personal models Considers tours rather than individual trips Uses additional information for decisions Previous stop locations Location of establishment (home base) Simulates each trip as tour progresses Similarities to commercial movement A number of clients scattered through city Efficient businesses will service them in tours

11 Establishment Client

12 Establishment Client

13 Establishment Client

14 Establishment Client

15 Establishment Client

16 Establishment Client Lunch

17 Establishment Client Lunch Return to Establishment Other Goods / Service

18 Trip Purposes Goods Pick up goods Drop off goods Pick up and drop off goods Service Perform service Pick up supplies for performing service

19 Trip Purposes Other Vehicle repair or fueling Driver’s personal stop (e.g. meal, snack, coffee, toilet, personal business) Stop for indirect business purpose (e.g. bank) Return Return to establishment Last stop of a tour

20 Trip Purposes

21 Fleet Allocators High trip volume by coordinated fleet A few specific generators Difficult to survey Less demand-sensitive (more typically a set route or coverage area) Outside the scope of this model; a simpler (e.g. gravity) treatment

22 Fleet Allocators Mail and courier Garbage and recycling City parks and road maintenance Newspaper and flyer delivery ~30%

23 Tour Generation Vehicle Type Tour Type Next Stop Type Next Stop Location Light ServiceGoodsOther Service Other (Return) Goods Other (Return) Other (Return) Medium ServiceGoodsOther Service Other (Return) Goods Other (Return) Other (Return) Heavy ServiceGoodsOther Service Other (Return) Goods Other (Return) Other (Return) Zones in Calgary Region Zones in Calgary Region Zones in Calgary Region Zones in Calgary Region Zones in Calgary Region Zones in Calgary Region Zones in Calgary Region Zones in Calgary Region Zones in Calgary Region Model Structure

24 Tour Generation Vehicle Type Tour Type Next Stop Type Next Stop Location Light ServiceGoodsOther Service Other (Return) Goods Other (Return) Other (Return) Medium ServiceGoodsOther Service Other (Return) Goods Other (Return) Other (Return) Heavy ServiceGoodsOther Service Other (Return) Goods Other (Return) Other (Return) Zones in Calgary Region Zones in Calgary Region Zones in Calgary Region Zones in Calgary Region Zones in Calgary Region Zones in Calgary Region Zones in Calgary Region Zones in Calgary Region Zones in Calgary Region Model Structure

25 Tour Generation Tour Type Light ServiceGoodsOther Service Other (Return) Goods Other (Return) Other (Return) Medium ServiceGoodsOther Service Other (Return) Goods Other (Return) Other (Return) Heavy ServiceGoodsOther Service Other (Return) Goods Other (Return) Other (Return) Zones in Calgary Region Zones in Calgary Region Zones in Calgary Region Zones in Calgary Region Zones in Calgary Region Zones in Calgary Region Zones in Calgary Region Zones in Calgary Region Zones in Calgary Region Model Structure Vehicle Type Next Stop Type Next Stop Location Logit choice model

26 Tour Generation Vehicle Type Tour Type Next Stop Type Next Stop Location Light ServiceGoodsOther Service Other (Return) Goods Other (Return) Other (Return) Medium ServiceGoodsOther Service Other (Return) Goods Other (Return) Other (Return) Heavy ServiceGoodsOther Service Other (Return) Goods Other (Return) Other (Return) Zones in Calgary Region Zones in Calgary Region Zones in Calgary Region Zones in Calgary Region Zones in Calgary Region Zones in Calgary Region Zones in Calgary Region Zones in Calgary Region Zones in Calgary Region Model Structure

27 Tour Generation Vehicle Type Tour Type Next Stop Type Next Stop Location Light ServiceGoodsOther Service Other (Return) Goods Other (Return) Other (Return) Medium ServiceGoodsOther Service Other (Return) Goods Other (Return) Other (Return) Heavy ServiceGoodsOther Service Other (Return) Goods Other (Return) Other (Return) Zones in Calgary Region Zones in Calgary Region Zones in Calgary Region Zones in Calgary Region Zones in Calgary Region Zones in Calgary Region Zones in Calgary Region Zones in Calgary Region Zones in Calgary Region Model Structure

28 Tour Generation Vehicle Type Tour Type Next Stop Type Next Stop Location Light ServiceGoodsOther Service Other (Return) Goods Other (Return) Other (Return) Medium ServiceGoodsOther Service Other (Return) Goods Other (Return) Other (Return) Heavy ServiceGoodsOther Service Other (Return) Goods Other (Return) Other (Return) Zones in Calgary Region Zones in Calgary Region Zones in Calgary Region Zones in Calgary Region Zones in Calgary Region Zones in Calgary Region Zones in Calgary Region Zones in Calgary Region Zones in Calgary Region Model Structure

29 Tour Generation Vehicle Type Tour Type Next Stop Type Light ServiceGoodsOther Service Other (Return) Goods Other (Return) Other (Return) Medium ServiceGoodsOther Service Other (Return) Goods Other (Return) Other (Return) Heavy ServiceGoodsOther Service Other (Return) Goods Other (Return) Other (Return) Zones in Calgary Region Zones in Calgary Region Zones in Calgary Region Zones in Calgary Region Zones in Calgary Region Zones in Calgary Region Zones in Calgary Region Zones in Calgary Region Zones in Calgary Region Model Structure Next Stop Location

30 Tour Generation Vehicle Type Tour Type Next Stop Type Next Stop Location Light ServiceGoodsOther Service Other (Return) Goods Other (Return) Other (Return) Medium ServiceGoodsOther Service Other (Return) Goods Other (Return) Other (Return) Heavy ServiceGoodsOther Service Other (Return) Goods Other (Return) Other (Return) Zones in Calgary Region Zones in Calgary Region Zones in Calgary Region Zones in Calgary Region Zones in Calgary Region Zones in Calgary Region Zones in Calgary Region Zones in Calgary Region Zones in Calgary Region Model Structure

31 Tour Generation Regression model Based on zonal information Population Employment by industry Accessibility factor Generates tours, not trips Policy-sensitive: Responds to travel conditions (accessibility)

32 Tour Generation Vehicle Type Tour Type Next Stop Type Next Stop Location Light ServiceGoodsOther Service Other (Return) Goods Other (Return) Other (Return) Medium ServiceGoodsOther Service Other (Return) Goods Other (Return) Other (Return) Heavy ServiceGoodsOther Service Other (Return) Goods Other (Return) Other (Return) Zones in Calgary Region Zones in Calgary Region Zones in Calgary Region Zones in Calgary Region Zones in Calgary Region Zones in Calgary Region Zones in Calgary Region Zones in Calgary Region Zones in Calgary Region Model Structure

33 Vehicle Type Three classes of vehicles Based on establishment location Logsums from lower levels LightMedium Heavy

34 Tour Generation Vehicle Type Tour Type Next Stop Type Next Stop Location Light ServiceGoodsOther Service Other (Return) Goods Other (Return) Other (Return) Medium ServiceGoodsOther Service Other (Return) Goods Other (Return) Other (Return) Heavy ServiceGoodsOther Service Other (Return) Goods Other (Return) Other (Return) Zones in Calgary Region Zones in Calgary Region Zones in Calgary Region Zones in Calgary Region Zones in Calgary Region Zones in Calgary Region Zones in Calgary Region Zones in Calgary Region Zones in Calgary Region Model Structure

35 Tour Type Based on establishment location and vehicle choice Observed very few tours mixing goods and service stops Other-only tours: Vehicle repair Errand running Goods (and other) Vehicle Type OtherService (and other)

36 Tour Generation Vehicle Type Tour Type Next Stop Type Next Stop Location Light ServiceGoodsOther Service Other (Return) Goods Other (Return) Other (Return) Medium ServiceGoodsOther Service Other (Return) Goods Other (Return) Other (Return) Heavy ServiceGoodsOther Service Other (Return) Goods Other (Return) Other (Return) Zones in Calgary Region Zones in Calgary Region Zones in Calgary Region Zones in Calgary Region Zones in Calgary Region Zones in Calgary Region Zones in Calgary Region Zones in Calgary Region Zones in Calgary Region Model Structure

37 Next Stop Purpose Different stop purposes affect stop location Different choice sets depending on tour type Other always option Return always option after first stop Return choice affects tour length Goods Tour Type: Goods ReturnOther

38 Next Stop Purpose Different stop purposes affect stop location Different choice sets depending on tour type Other always option Return always option after first stop Return choice affects tour length Service Tour Type: Service ReturnOther

39 Next Stop Purpose Different stop purposes affect stop location Different choice sets depending on tour type Other always option Return always option after first stop Return choice affects tour length Tour Type: Other ReturnOther

40 Tour Generation Vehicle Type Tour Type Next Stop Type Light ServiceGoodsOther Service Other (Return) Goods Other (Return) Other (Return) Medium ServiceGoodsOther Service Other (Return) Goods Other (Return) Other (Return) Heavy ServiceGoodsOther Service Other (Return) Goods Other (Return) Other (Return) Zones in Calgary Region Zones in Calgary Region Zones in Calgary Region Zones in Calgary Region Zones in Calgary Region Zones in Calgary Region Zones in Calgary Region Zones in Calgary Region Zones in Calgary Region Model Structure Next Stop Location

41 Not needed if next stop purpose is return Choose from all 1447 zones in Calgary region Estimation uses 80 randomly selected zones Stop Type (Goods/Service/Other)

42 Tour Generation Vehicle Type Tour Type Next Stop Type Next Stop Location Light ServiceGoodsOther Service Other (Return) Goods Other (Return) Other (Return) Medium ServiceGoodsOther Service Other (Return) Goods Other (Return) Other (Return) Heavy ServiceGoodsOther Service Other (Return) Goods Other (Return) Other (Return) Zones in Calgary Region Zones in Calgary Region Zones in Calgary Region Zones in Calgary Region Zones in Calgary Region Zones in Calgary Region Zones in Calgary Region Zones in Calgary Region Zones in Calgary Region Model Structure

43 Model Features All levels feed into each other Whole model policy sensitive Truck routes for medium and heavy vehicles Calgary law: Medium and heavy vehicles must travel on truck routes whenever possible (minimize travel off truck routes)

44 Truck Route Penalty Origin Dest.

45 Truck Route Penalty Origin Dest.

46 Truck Route Penalty Origin Dest. 1.2 3.1 1.5 3.0 1.2 1.4 2.0 0.3 0.2 0.9 Time: 7.5 mins

47 Truck Route Penalty Origin Dest. 201.2 3.1 301.5 3.0 1.2 301.4 2.0 100.3 100.2 200.9 Time: 408.1 minutes 408.1-(Int(408.1/100)*100)=8.1 minutes

48 Model Operation Trips generated one at a time in microsimulation module Microsimulation to get trip tables Java program external to EMME/2 EMME/2 interface Reads data from main model database Generates tours in Java microsimulation (Monte Carlo) Trip table from microsimulation brought back into EMME/2; assigned to become volumes on links

49 Get daily TRIP DESTINATION ATTRACTIVENESS Get DAILY COMPOSITE UTILITY Get DAILY COMPOSITE UTILITY of ACCESIBILITY Get TRAVEL UTILITIES for each segment / mode / time of day Get DAILY PERSON TRIP GENERATION Get DAILYPERSON TRIP DESTINATION choice Calculate PERSON TRIP TABLES for each segment Calculate mode shares for each segment / time of day Calculate vehicle trips by mode for all segments Final ASSIGNMENT all trips (auto, transit, walk, bike) Initial seed trip tables ASSIGNMENT - get times & costs Get TRAVEL UTILITIES for each segment / mode / time of day Calculate mode shares for each segment / time of day Calculate vehicle trips by mode for all segments Veh TT converged? BigMABS Veh TT converged? miniMABS A B A B Yes, do final iteration No, calculate new trip tables Yes, re- calculate composite utilities / trip tables ~22h - 2 iterations ~4h - 3 iterations Commercial Movement Model

50 Microsimulation Process Tour Type Next Stop Purpose Return Service Goods Other Tour Generation Vehicle Type Next Stop Is At Establishment Location Next Stop Location

51 Microsimulation Process Tour Type Next Stop Purpose Return Service Goods Other Tour Generation Vehicle Type Next Stop Is At Establishment Location Next Stop Location Tour starting in zone 340 (Central Industrial)

52 Microsimulation Process Tour Type Next Stop Purpose Return Service Goods Other Tour Generation Vehicle Type Next Stop Is At Establishment Location Next Stop Location Tour starting in zone 340 (Central Industrial) Light vehicle

53 Microsimulation Process Tour Type Next Stop Purpose Return Service Goods Other Tour Generation Vehicle Type Next Stop Is At Establishment Location Next Stop Location Tour starting in zone 340 (Central Industrial) Light vehicle Service (and other) tour

54 Microsimulation Process Tour Type Next Stop Purpose Return Service Goods Other Tour Generation Vehicle Type Next Stop Is At Establishment Location Next Stop Location Tour starting in zone 340 (Central Industrial) Light vehicle Service (and other) tour Service stop

55 Microsimulation Process Tour Type Next Stop Purpose Return Service Goods Other Tour Generation Vehicle Type Next Stop Is At Establishment Location Next Stop Location Tour starting in zone 340 (Central Industrial) Light vehicle Service (and other) tour Service, 211 (Stampede)

56 Microsimulation Process Tour Type Next Stop Purpose Return Service Goods Other Tour Generation Vehicle Type Next Stop Is At Establishment Location Next Stop Location Tour starting in zone 340 (Central Industrial) Light vehicle Service (and other) tour Service, 211 (Stampede) Service stop

57 Microsimulation Process Tour Type Next Stop Purpose Return Service Goods Other Tour Generation Vehicle Type Next Stop Is At Establishment Location Next Stop Location Tour starting in zone 340 (Central Industrial) Light vehicle Service (and other) tour Service, 211 (Stampede) Service, 209 (Apartment)

58 Microsimulation Process Tour Type Next Stop Purpose Return Service Goods Other Tour Generation Vehicle Type Next Stop Is At Establishment Location Next Stop Location Tour starting in zone 340 (Central Industrial) Light vehicle Service (and other) tour Service, 211 (Stampede) Service, 209 (Apartment) Other stop

59 Microsimulation Process Tour Type Next Stop Purpose Return Service Goods Other Tour Generation Vehicle Type Next Stop Is At Establishment Location Next Stop Location Tour starting in zone 340 (Central Industrial) Light vehicle Service (and other) tour Service, 211 (Stampede) Service, 209 (Apartment) Other, 2205 (Marathon rest.)

60 Microsimulation Process Tour Type Next Stop Purpose Return Service Goods Other Tour Generation Vehicle Type Next Stop Is At Establishment Location Next Stop Location Tour starting in zone 340 (Central Industrial) Light vehicle Service (and other) tour Service, 211 (Stampede) Service, 209 (Apartment) Other, 2205 (Marathon rest.) Service stop

61 Microsimulation Process Tour Type Next Stop Purpose Return Service Goods Other Tour Generation Vehicle Type Next Stop Is At Establishment Location Next Stop Location Tour starting in zone 340 (Central Industrial) Light vehicle Service (and other) tour Service, 211 (Stampede) Service, 209 (Apartment) Other, 2205 (Marathon rest.) Service, 2312 (North Hill Mall)

62 Microsimulation Process Tour Type Next Stop Purpose Return Service Goods Other Tour Generation Vehicle Type Next Stop Is At Establishment Location Next Stop Location Tour starting in zone 340 (Central Industrial) Light vehicle Service (and other) tour Service, 211 (Stampede) Service, 209 (Apartment) Other, 2205 (Marathon rest.) Service, 2312 (North Hill Mall) Return to establishment

63 Microsimulation Process Tour Type Next Stop Purpose Return Service Goods Other Tour Generation Vehicle Type Next Stop Is At Establishment Location Next Stop Location Tour starting in zone 340 (Central Industrial) Light vehicle Service (and other) tour Service, 211 (Stampede) Service, 209 (Apartment) Other, 2205 (Marathon rest.) Service, 2312 (North Hill Mall) Return to establishment, 340

64 Microsimulation Process Tour Type Next Stop Purpose Return Service Goods Other Tour Generation Vehicle Type Next Stop Is At Establishment Location Next Stop Location Tour starting in zone 340 (Central Industrial) Light vehicle Service (and other) tour Service, 211 (Stampede) Service, 209 (Apartment) Other, 2205 (Marathon rest.) Service, 2312 (North Hill Mall) Return to establishment, 340 Tour starting in zone 2604 (NW residential)

65 Microsimulation and Convergence Potential problem EMME/2 is deterministic Microsimulation is stochastic Random “kick” to EMME/2 traffic volumes each iteration Travel times change for each output Commercial vehicle flows generated then assigned; no feedback or convergence

66 Travel time updating Update travel times after a microsim. run Use as input to another microsim. run Iterative Microsimulation EMME/2 Databank Personal volumes Travel time O-D skims Commercial trip table

67 Travel time updating Update travel times after a microsim. run Use as input to another microsim. run Iterative Microsimulation EMME/2 Databank Personal volumes Updated Travel times Commercial trip table

68 Deterministic vs. Stochastic 125 126 200 vehicles

69 Deterministic vs. Stochastic Model Run 1 125 126 EMME/2112.3 Microsimulation 75 EMME/2 87.7 Microsimulation 125

70 Deterministic vs. Stochastic Model Run 1 2 125 126 EMME/2112.3112.3 Microsimulation 75 101 EMME/2 87.7 87.7 Microsimulation 125 99

71 Deterministic vs. Stochastic Model Run 1 2 3 125 126 EMME/2112.3112.3112.3 Microsimulation 75 101 83 EMME/2 87.7 87.7 87.7 Microsimulation 125 99 117

72 Deterministic vs. Stochastic Model Run 1 2 3 125 126 EMME/2112.3112.3112.3 Microsimulation 75 101 83 EMME/2 87.7 87.7 87.7 Microsimulation 125 99 117

73 Combining Deterministic and Stochastic Techniques Multiple runs of microsimulation model with same inputs will yield a range of output trip tables Run microsimulation multiple times and average the trip table results Fluctuations of microsimulation will tend to cancel each other out Outputs will be more predictable

74 Commercial Vehicle Model Info from EMME/2 Databank MicrosimulationUpdate EMME/2 Travel Times Multiple Iterations For Travel Time Convergence MicrosimulationAverage Trip Table Multiple Microsims for Averaging Export Trip Table to EMME/2 Personal Model

75 Status Data cleaning and analysis done Preliminary estimations: May-Aug 2003 Model design done Choice data sets under construction Truck route network coded and assignment working Microsimulator done

76 Summary Commercial vehicle movement is significant and complex Commercial transportation is important Interplay of vehicle types, truck routes Variety of stop purposes Tour-based methodology is appropriate Reflects efficient servicing of various clients Includes information about previous stops

77 Summary Nested logit choice model Four choice levels plus generation regression Provides for information and policy effect at all levels Requires truck route multiclass assignment Still under development Java-based microsimulation Interfaces with EMME/2 to obtain data and supply trip tables Iterative approach to solve convergence issues

78

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