1. IRS Institute for Regional Development and Structural Planning Sabine Zillmer ESPON 2.2.2. Pre-accession aid impact analysis - Third Interim Report - ESPON Seminar Nijmegen, 11-12 October 2004

2. IRS Institute for Regional Development and Structural Planning Sabine Zillmer Relation between Potentials and Pre-Accession Aid GDP Unemployment Socio-economic impacts Methodological Overview Potential Data Pre-Accession Aid Data Data Collection Potential AnalysisMeta Analysis Analysis of Regional Pre- Accession Aid ESPON Database Qualitative Impact Analysis (case studies) Location Quotients (& related to potentials) Quantitative Impact Analysis Policy Oriented Typologies

3. IRS Institute for Regional Development and Structural Planning Sabine Zillmer Preliminary Results – Typology Macro Level Change of relative position depends on national income levels and national performance Above average growth and low intervention level – capital regions of Poland, Hungary, Latvia, Slovenia Average and below average growth despite relatively high intervention level – mostly only in quite peripheral regions No region in group of highest intervention level with clearly above average income growth

4. IRS Institute for Regional Development and Structural Planning Sabine Zillmer Preliminary Results – Typology Meso Level Above national average growth with low intervention level – many capital and other centrally located regions and some (Western) border regions Below national average growth despite relatively high intervention level – fewer cases in mostly peripheral regions  Pure income impacts very limited on both spatial levels

5. IRS Institute for Regional Development and Structural Planning Sabine Zillmer Preliminary Results – Unemployment Development and EU Intervention

6. IRS Institute for Regional Development and Structural Planning Sabine Zillmer Preliminary Results – Role of Potentials Different potentials matter for income and unemployment developments to different extents Income developmentUnemployment development Population density Active population density Sectoral employment structure Agglomeration (size)(Accessibility) Institutional potential Other influences: initial unemployment and income; region types in some cases; not observed influences

7. IRS Institute for Regional Development and Structural Planning Sabine Zillmer Preliminary Results – Spatial Integration Cross-border cooperation - Programmes mostly focus on regional bottlenecks resulting from border situation, yet, often aim at improvements on level other than micro-level (e.g. transport linkages for agglomerations) - 'Soft' measures of SPFs very effective in terms of socio-cultural integration, but: low importance of these measures in other programmes - Positive effects for regional building of institutions' capacity where funds have not been too limited - Focus on regional development rather than spatial integration - Level of existing spatial integration tends to define scope of cross-border cooperation programmes and not the other way around Trans-national integration - Programmes address main bottlenecks and potentials common to respective macro-region - Significant impacts on trans-national level not to be expected as of funds' limitation - Existing integration level defines common fields of action - Institution building and integration successful - Unequal opportunities hamper spatial integration impacts in socio-economic terms – national vs. trans-national interests - Regional rather than macro-regional character of many projects

8. IRS Institute for Regional Development and Structural Planning Sabine Zillmer Tentative Policy Recommendations – 3-Level Approach Macro-Level: - support of productive investments with sustainable effects for regional economy - creation of growth from economic centres (relatively high potential endowment) through competition oriented policy to expanding regions then creating spatial cohesion - strengthen role of potential and weak MEGAs in New Member States and Candidate Countries – especially in CEE Triangle – through potential rather than priority orientation Micro-Level: - regional SWOT – analytical base for concentrated regional measures - improving regional institutional structures Meso-Level: - utilisation of institutional achievements and their further enhancement - consider national specifics in their translation for regional policies - coordinated and integrative strategy for regions depending on their natural, social and economic endowment with potentials / bottlenecks

9. IRS Institute for Regional Development and Structural Planning Sabine Zillmer Tentative Policy Recommendations – Policy Packages Package 1 for major urban agglomerations: infrastructure linkages; innovation; sector structure Package 2 for Western border regions: human resources; innovation; cross- border integration Package 3 for old industrial regions: business restructuring; human resources; infrastructure modernisation; environment Package 4 for Eastern peripheral and rural regions: local SMEs; institution building; human resources Package 5 for island economies: environment; trans-national integration; economic diversification

10. IRS Institute for Regional Development and Structural Planning Sabine Zillmer Main Challenges Further improvements of data availability (SAPARD) Dealing with missing data Improving output of selective work packages (e.g. quantitative analysis) Completing ex-ante analysis Cluster analysis for uniting elements of potential analysis Synthesis – Bringing together results of all work packages and for all spatial levels Integration of priority 2 project results (sector policies)