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Coupling Sustainable Production Analysis to Field Trial Data Dave Muth, Idaho National Laboratory U.S. Department of Energy Office of Biomass Program February.

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Presentation on theme: "Coupling Sustainable Production Analysis to Field Trial Data Dave Muth, Idaho National Laboratory U.S. Department of Energy Office of Biomass Program February."— Presentation transcript:

1 Coupling Sustainable Production Analysis to Field Trial Data Dave Muth, Idaho National Laboratory U.S. Department of Energy Office of Biomass Program February 23, 2010

2 Sustainable Resource Access

3 Limiting factor models exist, We’re building a framework where models can plug together. Technical Approach

4 Analysis Framework Architecture

5 Case Study: Ames, IA 25 Acre Experiment Current Analysis Approach: Erosion alone indicates that full removal is sustainable Erosion (T=5.0) (t/acre/yr) Removal RateConv TillNo Till 0%1.30.11 50%4.30.42 100%4.72.3 Analysis with SOC: Conventional tillage does not provide sustainable resource, limited availability through no till SOC (lbs/acre/yr) Removal RateConv TillNo Till 0%-67.7652.55 50%-101.9521.69 100%-121.26-15.02 Implementing Innovative Management Strategies: Consistent sustainable resource available SOC (lbs/acre/yr) Removal Rate NT w/Rye Cover NT w/Legume + Clover Cover 0%116.82204.99 50%78.25171.24 100%39.12130.25 Potential value added through other ecosystem services: Carbon sequestration Reduced nutrient runoff Reduced erosion

6 Utilizing Field Trial Data Through the Residue Removal Tool Sustainable ag residue removal for national resource assessment Implemented in a highly efficient iterative schema

7 CMZ 4 Rotations managements\CMZ 04\c.Other Local Mgt Records\Biomass Harvest\Continuous corn grain; NT managements\CMZ 04\c.Other Local Mgt Records\Biomass Harvest\Corn, grain; NT, SB NT, WW NT CMZ4 managements\CMZ 04\c.Other Local Mgt Records\Biomass Harvest\corn grain;NT, corn grain;NT, Soybean, wr managements\CMZ 04\c.Other Local Mgt Records\Biomass Harvest\corn grain;NT,anhyd, Soybean, nr, NT Single disk z4 flail shredder/windrower bar rake wheel rake

8 Modeled Removal Rates - Corn Stover 1)No Stover Removal 2)Grain and Cobs: CCM on combine mix 3)Moderate Removal: Combine residue spreader disengaged, bale windrow left behind 4)Moderately High Removal: Bar rake run over standing stubble, bale windrow 5)High Residue Harvest: Flail shredder cutting standing stubble and collecting flat residue, bale windrow

9 Adair County, Iowa 212 Kennebec Silt Loam 0% to 2% Slope

10 Adair County, Iowa Example 212 Kennebec Silt Loam 0% to 2% Slope 10 Year Average Yield: Management + Removal Rate Calculated Erosion SCI OM Subfactor Annual Average Residue (lbs) Corn Grain Yield Continuous corn grain; NT, Harvest grain and cobs0.16607170.3204231891.345149.9 Continuous corn grain; NT, High residue Harvest1.1931644-0.602997070.866149.9 Continuous corn grain; NT, Moderate Residue Harvest0.22813360.136342905.457149.9 Continuous corn grain; NT, Moderately High residue Harvest0.5972384-0.125654542.535149.9 Continuous corn grain; NT no stover harvest0.08897180.7847170149.9 USDA 10 Year Baseline Projection: USDA 10 Year Baseline Projection plus 10%: Continuous corn grain; NT, Harvest grain and cobs0.11942570.4984682180.272174.3 Continuous corn grain; NT, High residue Harvest1.0937827-0.5668151.033174.3 Continuous corn grain; NT, Moderate Residue Harvest0.16999040.2862643349.304174.3 Continuous corn grain; NT, Moderately High residue Harvest0.5033516-0.015755236.466174.3 Continuous corn grain; NT no stover harvest0.06753421.0293990174.3 Continuous corn grain; NT, Harvest grain and cobs0.09759530.6256532386.666191.73 Continuous corn grain; NT, High residue Harvest1.0297659-0.539588922.644191.73 Continuous corn grain; NT, Moderate Residue Harvest0.13866110.3933613666.363191.73 Continuous corn grain; NT,Moderately High residue Harvest0.44737390.0627595732.172191.73 Continuous corn grain;NT no stover harvest0.05609731.2041860191.73

11 Results For RP Field Trial Counties FIPSCountyState Acres in Rotation Annual Residue (lbs) Annual Residue (tons) Annual Residue (tons/acre) Corn Yield Ret. Coeff IA015Boone CountyIowa269120 1,351,500,000 675,7512.51097193.40.18787 MN149Stevens CountyMinnesota187320 828,155,000 414,0772.21054164.50.173718 NE155 Saunders CountyNebraska258151 817,977,000 408,9881.5843149.10.352557 PA081 Lycoming CountyPennsylvania27440 14,504,500 7,2520.264296128.80.894568 SC041Florence County South Carolina48935 61,318,600 30,6590.626532101.10.589174 SD011 Brookings CountySouth Dakota141595 625,366,000 312,6832.20829152.30.157432

12 Other Notes and Future Plans National Assessment capabilities will be part of the core tool over the next few months Quantitative carbon will brought online and used to revise the national runs over the next year DAYCENT developers joining the team for quantitative carbon modeling Significant I-Farm enhancements will be utilized within the tool over the next 6-9 months Discussions and planning on moving sub-field will ramp up over the next year

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