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Financial stability report 2006:2 5 December 2006
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CHAPTER 1 Financial markets
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House prices in the Unites States Percentage quarterly change, seasonally-adjusted data Figure 1:1 Source: Reuters EcoWin
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Ten-year government bond rates Per cent Figure 1:2 Source: Reuters EcoWin
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Stock markets Index, 2002-01-02=100 Figure 1:3 Source: Reuters EcoWin
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P/E ratios Figure 1:4 Source: Reuters EcoWin
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Implied stock-market volatility Per cent Figure 1:5 Source: Bloomberg
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Global level of bankruptcies Percentage of all companies Figure 1:6 Source: Reuters EcoWin
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Corporate bond spreads in the United States Percentage points Figure 1:7 Source: Reuters EcoWin
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Corporate bond spreads in Europe Percentage points Figure 1:8 Source: Reuters EcoWin
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Credit default swap spreads Basis points Figure 1:9 Source: Bloomberg
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Credit spreads for bonds issued by emerging-market economies Percentage points Figure 1:10 Source: Bloomberg
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Oil price and commodity price index USD per barrel and index: January 2002=100 Figure 1:11 Source: Reuters EcoWin
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KAPITEL 2 The Swedish banks´ borrowers
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Household borrowing Percentage 12-month change Figure 2:1 Source: The Riksbank
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Duration of fixed interest periods for new house mortgage loans Per cent Figure 2:2 Source: The Riksbank
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Household debt and post-tax interest expenditure in relation to disposable income Per cent Figure 2:3 Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
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House prices Index 1986 = 100 Figure 2:4 Source: Statistics Sweden
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Nominal house prices and household debt Index 1986 = 100 Figure 2:5 Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
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House prices and mortgage debt Percentage annual change Figure 2:6 Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
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House prices in Australia and the United Kingdom Percentage annual change Figure 2:7 Sources: ABS and Nationwide
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Household debt in the Baltic states Percentage annual change Figure 2:8 Sources: National central banks
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Household debt in Sweden and the Baltic states Procent Figure 2:9 Sources: National central banks
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Non-financial companies' borrowing and bank deposits Percentage twelve-month change, three-month moving average Figure 2:10 Source: The Riksbank
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Non-financial companies´ borrowing from securities markets and credit market institutions SEK billion Figure 2:11 Source: The Riksbank
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Corporate sector gross fixed capital formation and borrowing by non-financial companies from credit market institutions Percentage twelve-month change, four-month moving average Figure 2:12 Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
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Ratio of debt to total assets in listed companies Per cent of all listed companies Figure 2:13 Sources: Bloomberg and the Riksbank
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Interest-expenditure and debt ratios in small and large companies Figure 2:14 Sources: UC AB and the Riksbank
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Breakdown of returns on equity in listed companies Per cent of all listed companies Figure 2:15 Sources: Bloomberg and the Riksbank
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Number of corporate defaults by company size Twelve-month moving average Figure 2:16 Source: Statistics Sweden
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Expected default frequency (EDF) by industry for listed non-financial companies Per cent Figure 2:17 Source: Moody’s KMV
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Expected default frequency (EDF) for listed non-financial companies Per cent Figure 2:18 Source: Moody’s KMV
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Listed companies with a default probability of 1 per cent or more Per cent Figure 2:19 Sources: Moody´s KMV and the Riksbank
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Loan stocks relative to GDP in the Baltic states and Sweden Per cent Figure 2:20 Sources: National central banks
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Debt ratio and interest expenditure cover for listed property companies Kvot Figure 2:21 Sources: Annual reports and the Riksbank
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Expected default frequency (EDF) for listed property companies Procent Figure 2:22 Source: Moody´s KMV
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Real prices for office premises in central locations Index 1981 = 100 Figure 2:23 Sources: Newsec AB and the Riksbank
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Vacancy rates for office premises in central locations Per cent Figure 2:24 Sources: Newsec AB and the Riksbank
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Average direct return required for office premises in central locations Per cent Figure 2:25 Sources: Newsec AB and EcoWin
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Chapter 3 Developments in the banks
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Implied volatility of bank equity Per cent, moving 10-day average Figure 3:1 Sources: Bloomberg and the Riksbank
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Composition of pre-tax return on equity Per cent Figure 3:2 Sources: Banks reports and the Riksbank
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Profit before loan losses and net loan losses in the major banks Four-quarter figures, SEK billion, 2006 prices Figure 3:3 Sources: Banks reports and the Riksbank
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The major Swedish banks’ profits Four-quarter figures, SEK billion Figure 3:4 Sources: Banks reports and the Riksbank
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Cost/income ratio for the major Swedish banks Per cent Figure 3:5 Sources: Banks reports and the Riksbank
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Post-tax return on equity Per cent Figure 3:6 Sources: Banks reports and the Riksbank
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Net interest margin and spreads for the major banks on deposits, bank loans and mortgage loans in Sweden Per cent, moving 4-quarter average Figure B1 Sources: Banks reports and the Riksbank
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The major banks’ securities-related commission income and Stockholm Stock Exchange turnover SEK million and index: 1997=100 Figure R2 Sources: Banks reports, Reuters EcoWin and the Riksbank
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Lending by credit institutions to households in Sweden Percentage 12-month change Figure 3:7 Source: The Riksbank
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Lending to the general public in Sweden and abroad Index: 2005 Q3 = 100 Sources: Banks reports and the Riksbank Figure 3:8
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Provisions for incurred and probable loan losses Per cent of loan stock, accumulated over four quarters Figure 3:9 Sources: Banks reports and the Riksbank
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Loan losses, net Per cent of loan stock Figure 3:10 Sources: Banks reports and the Riksbank
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Tier 1 capital ratios of the four major Swedish banks Per cent Figure 3:11 Sources: Banks reports and the Riksbank
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Average Tier 1 capital ratios of the major Swedish and other Nordic banks Per cent Figure 3:12 Sources: Banks reports and the Riksbank
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The major Swedish banks’ deposits, lending and deposit deficit SEK billion Figure 3:13 Sources: Banks reports and the Riksbank
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Currency breakdown of securities-related borrowing by the major bank groups’ Swedish banks and mortgage institutions Procent Figure 3:14 Sources: Banks reports and the Riksbank
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The lowest Tier 1 capital ratio among the other three major Swedish banks if the fourth has suspended payments Procent Figure 3:15 Sources: Banks reports and the Riksbank
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The lowest Tier 1 capital ratio among the four major Swedish banks after the default of each bank’s largest counterparty Procent Figure 3:16 Source: The Riksbank
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Bank profits with the scenario for the Baltic states Expected profit less the change in expected losses, SEK million Figure 3:17 Sources: Banks reports and the Riksbank
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Cover for credit risk with the scenario for the Baltic states Per cent Figure 3:18 Sources: Banks reports and the Riksbank
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Bank profits in the scenario with a turn in the credit cycle Expected profit less the change in expected losses, SEK million Figure 3:19 Sources: Banks reports and the Riksbank
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Cover for credit risk in the scenario with a turn in the credit cycle Per cent Figure 3:20 Sources: Banks reports and the Riksbank
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ARTICLE Trading activity in credit derivatives and implications for financial stability
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Global outstanding volume of credit derivative market Total volume of sold contracts, USD billion Figure 1 Source: Fitch Ratings
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Underlying reference assets in credit derivative contracts 2005 Per cent Figure 2 Source: Fitch Ratings
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Premia in CDS indices Hundredths of a percentage point Figure 3 Source: Bloomberg
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Credit spreads for high-yield corporate bond issues in Europe and the United States Percentage points Figure 4 Sources: Reuters EcoWin and Bloomberg
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