1. Measuring Demographic & Non- Demographic Change in the Aboriginal Population Residing in Urban Areas of Canada Presentation by: Andy Siggner & Janet Hagey Housing, Families & Social Statistics Division Statistics Canada For the Annual Canadian Population Society Meetings, University of Manitoba, June 2004

2. 2 Estimating the Demographic & Non-Demographic Components of Population Growth at the CMA Level for the Aboriginal Population  Using Population Growth Equation: (P2-P1) = B - D + NM + Residual, where: P = population at time 1 & 2 B = births D = deaths NM = Net migration Residual = Non-demographic growth

3. 3 Deriving the Components of the Population Equation  Births: Proxy is the Pop. Aged 0-4  Deaths: Proxy is a national Aboriginal crude death rate applied to the mid-period population in the selected CMA  Net Migration: 5-Year net migration derived from the 2001 Census

4. 4 The Residual Growth – What is in it?  Using Census data over two time points, 5-year population growth is calculated for the Aboriginal identity population.  Residual growth is largely a function of:  differential net under coverage between censuses  “ethnic mobility”, i.e. people changing the reporting of their aboriginal affiliation from one census to the next

5. 5 At the Canada level, overall Aboriginal population growth is coming more so from non-demographic than demographic factors, 1996-2001.

6. 6 Growth of the Métis Identity Population, by Province, 1996-2001 73% 34% 22% 25% 125% 2% 352% 280% 100% 20% 5-Yr Growth

7. 7 (P2-P1) = B - D + NM + Residual CMAs 2001 Aboriginal identity population 1996 Aboriginal identity population Total growth Pop 0-4 = Est. of Births Estimate of Deaths 5-yr Net Migrants (1996- 2001) Demogra- phic Growth = B-D+NM Non- Demogra- phic Factors Cols. D-H) Per cent d.t. Non- Demographic Factors (Col. A)(Col. B)(Col. C)(Col. D)(Col. E)(Col. F)(Col. G)(Col. H)(Col. I)(Col. J) Halifax 3,525 2,290 1,235 24583210372863 70% Québec 4,130 2,605 1,525 32096-235-111,536 101% Montréal 11,085 9,965 1,120 690299-115276844 75% Ottawa - Hull 13,485 11,500 1,985 8053553858351,150 58% Toronto 20,300 16,095 4,205 1,615518-1,555-4584,663 111% Sudbury 7,385 4,815 2,570 425173-202322,338 91% Winnipeg 55,760 45,750 10,010 6,29514437955,6474,363 44% Regina 15,685 13,605 2,080 2,055416-6201,0191,061 51% Saskatoon 20,280 16,160 4,120 2,7205185152,7171,403 34% Calgary 21,915 15,195 6,720 2,0405281,1402,6524,068 61% Edmonton 40,930 32,825 8,105 4,54510491,8105,3062,799 35% Vancouver 36,855 31,140 5,715 2,840967-1,2706035,112 89%

8. 8 Demographic & Non-Demographic Components of Population Growth in selected CMAs, 1996-2001

9. 9 Estimate of Aboriginal Population Growth due to Non-Demographic Factors* in selected CMAs, 1996-2001

10. 10 A Comparison of the Share of Non-Demographic Growth with the Ratio of Non-Aboriginal to Aboriginal Median Incomes in Selected CMAs, 2001

11. 11 A Comparison of the Share of Non-Demographic Growth with the Ratio of Non-Aboriginal to Aboriginal Employment Rates, in Selected CMAs, 2001

12. 12 A Comparison of the Share of Non-Demographic Growth to the Ratio of Non-Aboriginal to Aboriginal Persons Aged 25-44 with a Post-Secondary School Completion, in Selected CMAs, 2001

13. 13 Conclusions Conclusions  At the national level, demographic growth accounts for just under half the overall increase of 22% in the Aboriginal population, 1996-2001  However, non-demographic factors account for over half the growth. These factors include both:  change in the levels of net under coverage between censuses  “ethnic mobility”, or changes in how people report their “Aboriginality” between censuses  Aboriginal non-demographic growth is predominant among the Métis & concentrated east of Manitoba and in B.C.  Non-demographic growth among selected CMAs is largely concentrated in eastern cities like Toronto, Sudbury, Quebec City & Montreal, but it is much smaller in Prairie cities such as Winnipeg, Saskatoon & Edmonton.

14. 14 Conclusions cont’d… Conclusions cont’d…  Those CMAs (mostly in the Prairies) with lower shares of non-demographic growth tend to have a wider gap between non-Aboriginal & Aboriginal socio-economic conditions.  Where much of the Aboriginal growth is explained by non- demographic factors, the gap between Non-Aboriginal & Aboriginal socio-economic conditions are much narrower – mostly in eastern cities and Vancouver.  It will be important to monitor these changes in the CMAs over time in order to better understand the socio-economic changes in the Aboriginal population relative to Non- Aboriginal people as well as to themselves.