1. Marine Core Service MY OCEAN WP 05 Monitoring & Forecasting Center for Arctic MFC Laurent Bertino, NERSC, Bergen, Norway

2. Marine Core Service MyOcean : Second Annual Meeting / 27-28 April 2011 / Roma Reminder - Partnership 3 Norwegian partners NERSC: 1.5 persons met.no: 2.1 persons IMR: 1 person WP 5 Arctic MFC (coordination) R&D Development Maintenance Production CalVal NERSC (L. Bertino) NERSC (P. Sakov) Met.no IMR Met.no (L.P. Røed) NERSC IMR Met.no (A. Burud) NERSC IMR (H. Wehde) NERSC Met.no NIERSC 1 Russian partner NIERSC:0.8 person TOTAL: 5.4 full time persons We meet physically twice a year.

3. Marine Core Service MyOcean : Second Annual Meeting / 27-28 April 2011 / Roma Reminder - Objectives for R&D n Main objective n Physical part n Upgrade HYCOM n V1: Rivers, numerics, vertical resolution 22 to 28 layers n V2: Sea-ice model (met.no, NERSC) n Biological part n V2: Extend NORWECOM whole Arctic (IMR) n Assimilation n V1: EnKF + smoother n V2: Findings from WP3 n Main issues n Research does not always deliver what was expected n R&D must adapt to issues in production as they come (reanalysis)

4. Marine Core Service MyOcean : Second Annual Meeting / 27-28 April 2011 / Roma R&D : main achievements n Main achievements are n Year 1 (reminder) n EnKF assimilates asynchronous observations n HYCOM v2.2 and EnKF v2 perform better (and faster) n Year 2 n Bias estimation in EnKF reanalysis n Explicit Zooplankton modules in HYCOM-NORWECOM n Collisional sea ice rheology for the MIZ in HYCOM n Impact study of inflow through Bering Strait n Main difficulties n R&D needs to respond to issues occurring in the production n F. ex: Drift and bias appeared in the course of the reanalysis n Remaining activities/objectives n HYCOM-CICE to be coupled and set in assimilative mode n Improved calibration of HYCOM-NORWECOM for the Arctic

5. Marine Core Service MyOcean : Second Annual Meeting / 27-28 April 2011 / Roma Reminder - Objectives for Dev. & Maintenance n Objectives, difficulties –Avoid divergence of TOPAZ-NERSC and TOPAZ-METNO Code version management under Subversion n V0: –TOPAZ(s) assimilates from SL-TAC, IS-TAC, SIW-TAC n V1: –Contribute to reviews, plans, SCAMG –Assimilation of (additional) data from SST-TAC, SIW-TAC, IS-TAC –Upgraded delayed mode data for reanalysis from all TACs n V2: –TOPAZ-NORWECOM from WP5.2 (NERSC/IMR) –From WP3: Assimilation in HYCOM-NORWECOM (NERSC) of ocean colour (from OC-TAC)

6. Marine Core Service MyOcean : Second Annual Meeting / 27-28 April 2011 / Roma Dev. & Maint. : main achievements n Main achievements are n V1 delivered: n Reanalysis assimilates data from SL-TAC, SST-TAC, IS-TAC n Both based on TOPAZ4: include all R&D from Yr1 n V2 implementation progress n Assimilation of data from SIW-TAC (done in reanalysis) n Improved Pacific inflow based on observations. n New lines of routine validation: SST and ice concentrations n Main difficulties n Porting errors uncovered early 2011 (incident reported to desk) n V0 backup at NERSC kept longer than expected n Assimilation of ocean colour has limited efficiency n Remaining tasks n Recover from porting errors n Ice concentrations from SIW-TAC in V1 n Spinup of V2 (with MIZ rheology and biology). n Certification / Validation of V2 and connection to MIS

7. Marine Core Service MyOcean : Second Annual Meeting / 27-28 April 2011 / Roma Reminder - Objectives for Production n Objectives, difficulties –Provide forecast and reanalysis products to WP2.3 –Heavy computer workload: risk on timeliness n V1: –Daily production (TOPAZ-met.no) New Product: ice type (First Year Ice, Multi Year Ice) –TOPAZ-NERSC as a backup for first 6 22 months (NERSC) –Then parallel test forecast suite as backup (met.no) –20 6-years reanalysis (physical variables) (NERSC) Needs 3 million CPU hours (= 342 years) n V2: –Include model upgrades from WP5.3 –Biological variables on demonstration mode Forecasts (met.no / IMR) Reanalysis (NERSC / IMR) n Under consideration: –Ensemble forecasts (10 members) [ProbaCast in WP3.2]

8. Marine Core Service MyOcean : Second Annual Meeting / 27-28 April 2011 / Roma Production : main achievements n Main achievements are n Daily runs at met.no in SMS, V0 since Sept 2009, V1 since Sept 2010 n Delivery is on time on TDS/FTP. n Tools: Nagios (monitoring) Munin (trending) n 10-mems ensemble forecast in V1 (ProbaCast) n 6-years Pilot reanalysis (2003-2008) delivered through MIS-GW n MIS-Gateway equivalent solution developed at met.no n User ECMWF transitioned from V0 to V1 n Change / incident reporting implemented n Main difficulties n HPC resources less available than expected for reanalysis n R&D actions needed during the Pilot reanalysis n Porting issues with new ice variables in RT (but OK in reanalysis) n Remaining objectives n 20-years reanalysis for V2 n Biological products available through MIS

9. Marine Core Service MyOcean : Second Annual Meeting / 27-28 April 2011 / Roma Reminder - Objectives for Cal / Val n Objectives –Validate against external, delayed-mode data sets Capitalize on the IPY (DAMOCLES, Poleward, NABOS,...) –Acoustic tomography, moorings, ice transports Evaluation by Norwegian fishing vessels (IMR) Hydrographic data –INTAS-Nansen-AARI database (NERSC), NISE (IMR) Special remote sensing products –Ocean colour (high-latitude algorithm, NIERSC) –Expand MERSEA Arctic validation metrics (to WP2.2) –Provide recommendations for R&D (to WP3) open calls. –Contribute to QuARG with H. Wehde (IMR) –Write publications to gain credibility from peers n Risks, issues, … –Still little data available in the Arctic –Still a lot of clouds –Still quite dark in the winter, but bright in the summer!

10. Marine Core Service MyOcean : Second Annual Meeting / 27-28 April 2011 / Roma Cal/Val : main achievements n Main achievements are n RT validation against SST-TAC respect Lisbon recommendations n IPY DAMOCLES data (ITP) very useful in RA n Independent delayed mode data obtained for RA n AWI (ACOBAR), IMR (Svinøy and Bear Island volume fluxes) n New metrics: ice type validated against AARI ice charts n Assimilation of SIW TAC ice drift data useful for ice thickness n WP3.2 Harmony on Ice followed up in 2011 n Participation to new GMES R&D projects. n Main difficulties n Biological data very scarce in the Arctic n Volume fluxes hard to validate across ice-covered sections n Remaining tasks n RT validation loops: SIW-TAC ice drift, IS-TAC n More precise routine visual inspection n RA validation: expand for full 20 years reanalysis

11. Marine Core Service MyOcean : Second Annual Meeting / 27-28 April 2011 / Roma n Scientific Challenges –Non-linear complex ice-ocean-ecosystem interactions Sea ice rheology –Small Rossby radius –Rapidly changing weather (Polar Lows) n Technical Challenges –Little data available to assimilate and evaluate the products (Altimetry, Argo) Freshwater (rivers?, precipitation?) Lower accuracy weather forecasts / reanalyses Exchanges between Atlantic and Arctic. n Operational Challenges –Large computational load (100 members EnKF) –Needs efficient workflow for daily runs and reanalysis n Ultimate Challenges … –The Arctic Ocean is presently undergoing a transition –Increasing demands: oil and gas E&P and shipping safety (icebergs, ice ridges) –Increasing concerns from fisheries –Remain a unite team but flexible for rapidly changing user needs. Main Challenges

12. Marine Core Service MyOcean : Second Annual Meeting / 27-28 April 2011 / Roma n Scientific Challenges –Contribute to the understanding of recent changes in the Arctic –Synthesize the validation results in RT and RA. –Identify main observations, modeling, assimilation developments needed n Technical Challenges –Replacement of production hardware at met.no end of 2011 –Offer simple and sustainable solutions to users n Operational Challenges –Intense V2 initiation phase –Routines to train new colleagues on the (complex) system n Ultimate Challenges … –Attract more users –Gain international recognition in Arctic community (AOMIP) n Main Risks –Loss of trained personnel at the end of the project. Future Challenges

13. Marine Core Service MyOcean : Second Annual Meeting / 27-28 April 2011 / Roma n Past (event, work or tasks achieved) : –September 2009: V0 running in RT –December 2010: V1 launched in RT and Pilot RA –February 2011: Downstream project SIDARUS –February 2011: Users switched to V1, V0 turned down. –April 2011: Validation reports for both RT and RA. n Future : –September 2011: V2 initialized, including biology –October 2011: New HPC facilities for RT production –December 2012: V2 connected to MIS –2012: Participation to projects MyOcean2, MyWave, SANGOMA Calendar

14. Marine Core Service MyOcean : Second Annual Meeting / 27-28 April 2011 / Roma WP 11 EXPENSES Actual (March2010) Variance versus Budget Comments K€ % Coordination + 5+ 10%More… R&D - 10- 2%Less… Dev/Maint. Production Cal/Val WP Coordination 1st reporting period : Budget  Figures will be provided by PMO as soon as your partners have finished reporting and will be added to your presentation.  Be ready to give short explanations on main deviances during your presentation...  We are talking about estimated budget (best estimates) !

15. Marine Core Service MyOcean : Second Annual Meeting / 27-28 April 2011 / Roma Some illustrations… Ice minimum Sept 2007 Ice types May 2008 SSH variability as in Köhl, JPO 2007 Svinøy Net volume flux