1. Http://www.hist.umn.edu/~rmccaa

2. Http://www.prb.org/prb

3. PRB World Pop Sheet, 1997 (a quick lesson on hope and truth) 1997 5840 24 9 1.5 47 6,894 8,036 59 3.0 1992 5420 26 9 1.7 41 7,114 8,545 68 3.3

4. Demographic transitions in historical perspective: fertility, epidemiology, and mortality » The demographic transition paradigm » Fertility transitions: examples from Latin America » Mortality transition and the AIDS epidemic in historical perspective

5. Malthus, Marx, and Boserup vs. the Billions Demographic transition in the contemporary world: theories, facts and trends (see handout)

6. Three social philosophers: Malthus, Marx and Boserup » Thomas R. Malthus, An Essay on the Principle of Population (1798): Population increases geometrically; subsistence, arithmetically. Poverty is the result unless there is moral restraint. » Karl Marx, Das Kapital (1867): Each mode of production has its corresponding mode of reproduction.

7. Three social philosophers: Malthus, Marx and Boserup » Esther Boserup, The Conditions of Agricultural Growth (1965), demographic pressure (population density) promotes innovation and higher productivity in use of land (irrigation, weeding, crop intensification, better seeds) and labor (tools, better techniques).

8. Demographic transition: phase shifts in mortality and fertility growth rate Decline A post-modern phase?--low death rates, lower birth rates, negative growth rates.

9. Population (in millions) by world regions, 1950 - 95 Population Increase % Region1950 1995 1975 1995 Africa2197202.52.8 Asia 34511.7 Latin Amer1644812.71.9 U.S.A.165263-0.7 Developed832 11691.10.2

10. Fertility transitions in 15 countries: 1962-1995

11. I. Fertility Transition: In Historical Perspective

12. Three fertility transitions in Latin America, compared with USA fertility transitions

13. Transitions, revolutions, baby booms, and busts: Cuba, Mexico & USA fertility transitions baby booms baby busts

14. Politics, fertility and transition in Mexico, 1895-1995 Revolution Family planning

15. Cuban Revolution: Baby boom (1960-1970) and bust (1977-) baby boom baby bust

16. Fertility decline in Latin America, 1952 - 1992

17. Mexico’s fertility transition: 7 children in 1970 to 3.2 in 1992

18. Age patterns of fertility: USA, 1988 and 1970 vs. Mexico

19. Mexico’s fertility in 1971 lagged USA by a century

20. By 1992, Mexico lagged USA by 2 - 3 decades.

21. Fertility of married Mexican women by educational levels compared with natural fertility

22. The educational revolution will precipitate further declines in Mexican fertility rates None Primary Secondary Post

23. The fertility transition in China, Mexico, India, Bangladesh, and Nigeria: 1962-1995

24. II. Epidemics: A Historical Perspective

25. The Age of Pestilence and Famine: an example from colonial Mexico

26. Second example, 1630-1930 (northern Mexico)

27. III. Mortality Transition: In Historical Perspective

28. Mortality transitions: Examples from Latin America » Earlier and faster in Argentina, Uruguay, Cuba, and Costa Rica » Later and slower in Chile, Mexico, Brazil and Peru » Slowest in Guatemala, much of Central America, and Haiti

29. Life Expectancy, 1900-1980, 4 LA countries (unequal in 1900; now converging)

30. The Mortality transition in Mexico: catching up with the USA

31. Infant mortality declined from 13% in 1950 to 3% in 1992 (still more than 3 times the US rate).

32. Does HIV/AIDS contradict the epidemiological paradigm (see Bongaarts in PDR 3/96)? » HIV/AIDS is a pandemic-- 20 million cases worldwide: 2/3rds in Africa, 20% in S & SE Asia. » AIDS deaths rates will continue to rise, reaching, by 2005, 0.3-0.4 per thousand population world-wide. » Behavioral change is the best hope; rates of increase in infection are slowing everywhere except in Asia.

33. Conclusions: » Minimal levels of economic and social development are sufficient to initiate the fertility transition. » Modest investments in preventive public health could improve quality of life and longevity in many regions of the globe. » The demographic explosion is nearly over everywhere, except in Africa.