1. Oxford, January 2011 Giulio Selvaggi Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia National Earthquake Centre, Rome WHY DID THE L’AQUILA EARTHQUAKE HAVE SUCH A DRAMATIC IMPACT?

2. Magnitude: Ml=5.9, Mw=6.3 Depth: 9.46 Dead: 308 Injuried :1,500 Displaced: 65,000 Homeless: 22,000 Past earthquakes in Abruzzi 1315: dead 6,000 1703: dead 9,761 1706: dead 2,700 1915: dead 33,000 EarthquakeDataMagnitude Popul.exposed to VIII MMI (Pager USGS) Casualties Ratio Casualties/exposed VIII MMI L’Aquila (Italia) April 20096.210.0003083 % Haiti January 20107.03.650.000222.5706 % Chile February 20108.83.000.0005500.015 % Baja California April 20107.2800.00020.00025 % Christchurch September 20107.022.00000 WAS IT REALLY “DRAMATIC”? - Yes, compared with other recent events - It could have been much more severe if it had happened during the morning

3. HAZARD VULNERABILITY EXPOSURE AWARENESS PREPAREDNESS

4. COST OF ITALIAN EARTHQUAKES IN THE PAST 40 YEARS (M€ 2005)

5. SCENARIO FOR XXI CENTURY BASED ON THE PAST TWO CENTURIES - 500-2000 DEATH+INJURED/YEAR 50,000-200,000 DEATH+INJURED/CENTURY - -1-2 Bil€/YEAR 100-200 Bil€/CENTURY 965 M€ IN 7 YEARS 2010-2016

6. 8.861.225 PEOPLE LIVE IN HIGH HAZARD REGION OF CENTRAL-SOUTHERN ITALY

7. THE GROW OF TOWNS OCCURED DURING THE ’60 AND ‘70, WELL BEFORE BUILDING CODES

8. TOWNS ALSO GROW IN THE WRONG PLACES LIKE ALLUVIAL BASINS WHERE SITE EFFECTS MAY BE LARGE VULNERABILITY

9. WRONG RENOVATIONS

10. INADEGUATE CONCRETE, no bars in the column

11. LOW COST BASIC RECONTRUCTIONS SAVED MANY PEOPLE

12. AWARENESS AND PREPARATION A questionnaire in the tent camps after the Eq

15. REASONS WHY IT IS STILL IMPORTANT TO WORK ON BASIC DATA FOR HAZARD ASSESSMENT The present day hazard map (2004) derives from: - - Historical catalogue - - Instrumental seismicity - - Fault catalogue (for zonation) - - Attenuation laws And does not include: - - GPS strain rates data - - All what we have learned in the past 6 years

16. 2010

19. Strain rate field obtained using the method of Holt and Haines (1993) Color scale = 2 nd invariant strain rate tensor Arrows = principal directions of strain rate

20. DEVELOP OF NATURAL HIGHLY INSTRUMENTED LAB. Is the AT fault accumulating strain or is it in creeping? What is the role of fluids?

21. FAULTS CATALOGUE HAVE LARGE UNCERTAINTIES AND INCOMPLETENESS (ES. FAULT RESPONSIBLE OF L’AQUILA EARTHQUAKE WAS NOT KNOWN!)

22. CONCLUSIONS A National Plan for Risk Mitigation. - A long term political strategy for vulnerability reduction (es. basic restructuring), awareness and preparation - - A basic research program on earthquake understanding (monitoring) - - Establish natural laboratories to study earthquake generation process - - Review of earthquake and faults catalogues - - Strain rate maps To develop long and medium-term (time dependent) hazard maps for operational purposes